The first WGC event of 2019 is back in Mexico City and Club de Golf Chapultepec for the WGC-Mexico Championship. Chapultepec on the surface is a long Par-71 course at 7,350 yards, but in reality it plays far shorter due to the high altitude of Mexico City. To be honest, you can throw the yardage book out the window this week, and I’m personally considering Chapultepec as a “short” course. Obviously, this opens the door for more worthwhile picks among the field in both PGA DFS contests and on the betting market.
The past two seasons at this event have been a lot of guessing around which stats will be key to success but after gaining a little bit of a sample size the picture becomes a little more clear. Off-the-tee players can opt to either bomb and gouge with the driver, which will set up under 100 yards on most approach shots, or just as easily club down and still have just a wedge or short iron on approach. The grass types this week are the same mixture of poa/kikuyu grass that we saw last week at Riviera, so you can go back and see who putted and scrambled well last week to get a pretty good idea of the players who should perform well on a similar surface.
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Chapultepec’s three Par 5s are all easily accessible to the longer hitters and present by far the’ best scoring opportunities on the course. The Par 4s will almost entirely feature wedge or short iron approaches due to the extra carry in the high elevation, so I’ll be looking to key on players who have been hot with the wedges this season.
Chapultepec’s main defense is its tree-lined fairways, which will almost always force a chip out if players get in there. This sets up Chapultepec to give up a bunch of bogies or worse. With that being said, it’s worth it to target players in DFS who can make a lot birdies regardless if they also rack up bogies and doubles due to the small field and every player being guaranteed four rounds in a no-cut event. Going back to when this event was held at Doral, this is a big-game hunter type of tournament that has featured true top-tier winners outside of perhaps Nick Watney in 2011.
As we always point out, there's plenty of strategy that goes into cashing winning DFS lineups and winning betting tickets, and the best place to start is RotoQL’s DFS tools and the BetQL Mobile App. Our RotoQL PGA Lineup Optimizer offers a massive advantage when you're building DFS lineups, and our BetQL Trending Picks and Public Betting tools provide a big edge when you're making bets, regardless of bankroll size.
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Key Stats
Ball Striking
Strokes Gained: Approach
Approach <150 Yards
Birdie or Better Percentage
WGC-Mexico Championship picks (Daily Fantasy Golf)
DFS Core Plays to Consider:
Top-end: Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson (GPP), Phil Mickelson, Xander Schauffele
Mid-range: Tommy Fleetwood, Sergio Garcia (GPP), Matt Kuchar, Gary Woodland
Value plays: Alex Noren (Cash), Henrik Stenson, Tyrrell Hatton, Thorbjorn Olessen, Lucas Bjerregaard
WGC-Mexico Championship betting advice
Outright Bets to Consider
*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Tiger Woods 18/1
I went in heavy on Woods earlier this season at Torrey Pines, and while that didn’t quite work out how me and other Tiger backers would have hoped, I’m looking to jump back on him in the betting markets at 18/1 this week. I like that Woods will be able to use his driving iron off the tee if he chooses and can lean on his elite approach game on this layout. Woods has by far the most WGC victories in PGA Tour history and has won this event a staggering seven times (albeit not at this course). I also like the 18/1 number on DraftKings Sportsbook and slightly prefer Woods as an outright bet over a DFS play at likely high ownership at his $9,500 price point.
Gary Woodland 33/1
Woodland has really taken his game to another level this season with seven top-10 finishes in his first nine starts. Woodland is plenty long off the tee, but I actually like to target him at courses where he backs off his driver in favor of his truly world-class stinger off tee. (Seriously, go YouTube some Woodland stinger highlights if you haven’t seen them.) Woodland has a pair of second-place finishes at the two other no-cut events that he has played this season, and my favorite bet of the week is a Woodland top-10 each-way bet at +333.
Matt Kuchar 40/1
Wow, people sure have flipped on Kuchar. He used to be seen as one of the "good guys" on tour before the recent caddie payment story blew up. To be honest, I couldn't care less about that story, and I’m looking to jump on Kuchar at a suppressed 40/1 number in the betting markets. Kuchar is arguably having the best season of his PGA Tour career with two wins and four other top-30 finishes in his seven starts. Sure, Kuchar’s two wins came in subpar fields at the Sony Open and Mayakoba Classic, but 40/1 is just egregious for a player that has already won twice and hung around the top of the leaderboard a few other times this season. Similar to Woodland, I love betting on Kuchar to finish inside of the top 10 at +350.
Alex Noren 80/1
I always look to limit my exposure in these small-field, no-cut events, and this is certainly not a week to take bombs on longshots in the 100/1 and over range. However, there is some huge value in that 50/1 - 80/1 range and Noren really stands out at his 80/1 number. Noren has yet to really find his form this season, but 80/1 is great value for a player that has a proven winning pedigree at events all around the world, including a win in another poa/elite field event at the 2017 Farmers Insurance Classic at Torrey Pines. He’s incredibly cheap on DraftKings for DFS, but I expect him to be one of the highest owned value plays on the slate, so I would prefer to get my Noren exposure in the betting markets with an outright and top-10 each-way bet.
Other Bets to Consider: Xander Schauffele (20/1, +500 Top-5 EW), Sergio Garcia (40/1, +350 EW), Henrik Stenson (70/1, +550 EW), Danny Willett (100/1, +750 EW)