We’re right in the middle of March Madness, and the PGA Tour looks to get in on their own bracket action with the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play -- something that makes PGA DFS contests and betting even more fun and challenging. The match-play event returns to Austin Country Club for the fourth consecutive season with former winners at this venue, including Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, and Bubba Watson.
Austin Country Club is an incredible layout that rolls through the Texas hills and down along the Colorado River -- setting the scene for some excellent back-nine match-play holes. However, due to the format of the event, you don’t need to get too caught up in the layout. The key factors that I’m looking at is that Austin Country Club is a Pete Dye design, so accuracy tee-to-green and excellent short games will be important. Beyond that, targeting birdie or better percentage and Par 4 scoring are two other statistics that we can look to key in on the match-play format.
MORE ROTOQL: Lineup BuilderBy far the most important thing to focus in on this week is the bracket itself and understanding how you need to construct your teams in DFS and your betting card to make sure that you aren’t drawing dead after the Sweet 16 round.
In DFS formats, you should absolutely never roster two players who are in the same group in pool play and ideally not roster players that have the chance at playing each other in the first knockout round. This is a week to really embrace the variance, and you shouldn't be afraid to get a little wild with your lineup constructions.
The strategy for betting is slightly different, and there are more options for hedging later in the tournament if some of your early outright bets are making a run. I’ll be looking to go in heavy on one of the favorites who has a nice road to the finals, plus look to sprinkle some bankroll on some longshots who drew a favorable group in pool play.
Before we get into this week's picks, we have to point out that plenty of strategy goes into cashing winning DFS lineups and winning betting tickets. By now you should know the best place to start is RotoQL’s DFS tools and the BetQL Mobile App. Our easy-to-use RotoQL PGA Lineup Optimizer gives you a big advantage when you're putting together DFS lineups, and our BetQL Trending Picks and Public Betting tools provide a massive edge when you're making bets, regardless of bankroll size.
I'm always ready to help, too, so check me out on Twitter (@DFSBenj) for even more NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA daily fantasy content and gambling advice.
Key Stats
Birdie or Better Percentage
Ball Striking
Par 4 Scoring
WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play picks (Daily Fantasy Golf)
DFS Core Plays to Consider:
Top Tier: Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose
Mid-Tier: Patrick Cantlay, Marc Leishman, Bubba Watson, Gary Woodland
Value Plays: Matt Wallace, Kevin Kisner, Charles Howell, Si-Woo Kim
WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play betting advice
Outright Bets to Consider
*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Dustin Johnson 10/1
I haven’t bet too many favorites so far this season, but that changes this week with Johnson, who is second in the field in odds to win at 10/1, just behind Rory McIlroy at 9/1. While Hideki Matsuyama scares me in the first round, if DJ can make it out of the group he has a clear path to at least the semifinals given how open groups 16, 9 and 8 are. Johnson won this event two years ago in 2017 and is also coming off a goof finish at the last WGC event in Mexico.
Kevin Kisner 66/1
Kisner has been playing really well for the last month and is a nice value at 66/1 in a very winnable Group 14 alongside Tony Finau, Ian Poulter, and Keith Mitchell. If Kisner manages to make it through his group, he would face a matchup with the winner of Group 3 which includes four out-of-form golfers in Brooks Koepka, Alex Noren Hao Tong Li, and Tommy Lewis. Kisner finished runner-up here last season and has an excellent track record at Pete Dye courses. If you don’t feel comfortable about an outright bet, then consider taking Kisner at plus-280 to win his group.
Matt Wallace 80/1 + To Win Group for +380
We have seen some of the lesser known Euro players make runs at this event over the past few seasons, and Wallace is a great darkhorse pick at 80/1. Wallace is paired in a group with Justin Thomas, Keegan Bradley, and Lucas Bjerregaard -- none of whom has performed particularly well in match play formats. Wallace is one of the premier birdie makers on the European Tour and played well during the Florida swing with finishes of T20, T6, and T30. Wallace is also excellent value to be the winner of Group 5 at plus-380.
Hao Tong Li 100/1
Group 3 is one of the most intriguing groups of the tournament and is wide open given the current form of the groups’ top seed, Brooks Koepka. The draw doesn’t get much more clear outside of Koepka, as all three of the other golfers are struggling for form. Alex Noren has missed three cuts in his past five events with a high finish if T44; Tommy Lewis missed his last cut in Europe; and Tong Li missing his last two cuts. Of all of these guys, I like Tong Li’s number the best at 100/1, and he has the game to flip the switch and become a birdie machine. The 100/1 number also gives you flexibility to hedge with head-to-head matchup bets if he is able to advance out of pool play.