This week’s Wells Fargo Championship features a lopsided field that is loaded with elite options yet is weak beyond them. Only 15 of 158 golfers have Vegas odds of at least two percent to win the tournament, and the top eight golfers in the field are being given a cumulative 58.6-percent chance of winning compared to the other 150 golfers in the field. As a result of this staggering imbalance, I anticipate the PGA DFS community to widely implement a studs-and-duds strategy.
Consequently, I expect the most expensive, premier golfers in the field, such as Rory McIlroy, to be the most popular. Considering the lack of upside among the second tier of golfers, I don’t think moving down the price scale and packing in a balanced lineup is a smart pivot. I believe the optimal strategy this week from a game theory perspective is to target the elite golfers in the field who are likely to be lower owned than other golfers of a similar caliber.
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Wells Fargo Championship picks and PGA DFS strategy
Targets
I don’t expect Justin Rose to go completely overlooked this week, but I don’t think he will be very popular either. Of the four golfers with over five-percent odds to win, Rose is being given the lowest at 7.7 percent. That number will impact his ownership compared to the other three favorites, but in my opinion it won’t change the reality that Rose is practically interchangeable with them in terms of his actual chance of success. The golf world is incredibly reactionary when it comes to recent results, and Rose’s odds and DFS appeal are being far too negatively impacted by one missed cut in his last tournament, albeit a high-profile one at the Masters.
Before that missed cut, Rose was ranked as the No. 1 overall in the world -- and for good reason. It would be difficult to argue that any golfer outclasses him. At this course, Rose has two top-10 finishes in three tries in the past five years and should be an excellent play once again this year. At a lower price and lower ownership, Rose could pay double dividends if he outperforms a golfer such as rory McIlroy. Disregard Rose’s bad week at the Masters and use it to your advantage this week at the Wells Fargo Championship.
Speaking of bad weeks at the Masters, perhaps nobody had a worse one than Paul Casey who finished +10 and barely above last place. Needless to say, it was not Casey’s best performance. After burning anybody who used him at the Masters and with such an ugly look on his most recent game log tally, Casey will receive lower ownership than he deserves this week. Still, Casey is an outstanding all-around golfer and already has a win to go along with second- and third-place finishes this season. In three tries at this course, Casey has never missed the cut and finished fifth last year. Outside of the top four, Casey is tied with three others for the best odds in the field at 4.8 percent, and he may get the lowest ownership of the group simply due to the resounding thud in his last appearance. This is an excellent spot to work against the majority and fire up an elite golfer with consistent top-five upside.
Patrick Reed has been playing very mediocre golf recently, far below his standards. In his past four appearances, he hasn’t finished better than T36th and only has one top-10 finish this season. However, Reed is a proven winner, and it’s likely only a matter of time before he turns his seven top-25 finishes this year into some more fruitful results. At the lower end of the pricing scale among the available strong options in the field, Reed offers upside with some salary relief and leverage. He has never missed the cut at this course and has top-10 finishes in his past two tries. With a nice combination of everything that makes for a good DFS play, Reed is worth a long look this week.
Factoring in Course Fit
Many courses, like Quail Hollow, will appear to favor a specific type of golfer. I have found that this can be a highly deceptive variable that often doesn’t have as much of an impact as the DFS community anticipates. However, it is always worth considering and can give you an edge if you factor it in properly. In my experience, the golfers most likely to nullify the course fit angle are the most elite golfers. Put simply, the best golfers can play well on all types of courses.
On the flip side, there can be an advantage in selecting cheaper golfers that may get a small bump from the course style. For example, given that this week sets up well for longer hitters, working in value golfers such as Luke List, Cameron Champ and Trey Mullinax – some of the longest drivers on tour – can be part of a strong strategy. Considering the course layout, golfers like List, Champ and Mullinax probably have slightly more upside than otherwise similar golfers in their price range and that are being given similar odds.
Since you have to select some cheaper golfers in most golf lineups, I have found that it can be better to work with course fit instead of against it when using less expensive players who are already risky. In short, it can pay off to be contrarian at the higher end of the pricing spectrum where you can expect a strong result regardless of the course layout while eating slightly higher ownership in order to minimize risk and increase upside among your cheaper plays.
Aaron White graduated from Northwestern University with a B.A. in Economics. He has played DFS professionally for several years and has won featured NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and golf GPPs on both FanDuel and DraftKings.