After a chalky week where the public largely rode favorites to favorable results, Week 9 features some tougher calls in NFL confidence and pick 'em pools. The number-crunching experts from TeamRankings break down win odds and pick percentages for five key games to help you find the right picks for your football pool.
As a reminder, TeamRankings is the only site that provides customized picks to maximize your edge in football pools. Last year, 80 percent of their subscribers reported winning a prize in a football pick 'em contest.
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Review of last week's picks
Last week, we highlighted three favorites that were coming at relative value given the large pick percentages on every favorite last week. We won’t take too much credit for suggesting that you take the top favorite, Minnesota, and slot them as your top confidence play. But San Francisco and Green Bay were two favorites that were being picked a little less by the public than other similar teams, and both got big wins.
Meanwhile, the two value gambles we highlighted for consideration in weekly contests both came close but lost in heartbreaking fashion. Tampa Bay had their chances -- and some controversy -- in the loss at Tennessee, while Denver led the Colts until Adam Vinatieri hit a 51-yard game-winning field goal to end the game.
WEEK 9 FANTASY RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Week 9 NFL Picks Advice: Tips for Pick 'em Pools
As we always caution, you shouldn't necessarily make every one of the picks below (especially the value gambles). The best Week 9 picks for your NFL pool depend on several factors, including rules, size, and prize structure. Our Football Pick 'em Picks product recommends weekly picks for you based on all those factors.
Win odds and estimated national pick popularity data is subject to change between publication and kickoff. For the latest numbers, check our pick 'em picks product, which updates multiple times daily.
Value Favorites
Week 9 features several favorites that the public is picking at a lower rate than their respective chances to win. These types of teams are as close as you can get to “no-brainer picks” in NFL pick ’em contests, as both win odds and value are on your side. Here are three of them:
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Indianapolis)
The Colts are 5-2, but all seven games have been close affairs that could have gone either way. They were coming at value for the first month of the season as the public shied away from them, but now, the public is heavily on Indianapolis (73 percent of early picks are on the Colts), as it's tied for the second-best record in the AFC entering the week.
The Steelers, though, are the Vegas favorite in this one at home. Both our models and the betting markets give the Steelers a 52-percent chance to win. Our predictive power rankings have Pittsburgh just above the Colts on a neutral field, with the difference in record explained by close-game performance (The Steelers are 1-3 in games decided by eight or less).
Cleveland Browns (at Denver)
Joe Flacco has been ruled out of this Sunday’s game against Cleveland because of a neck injury. Coincidentally or not, Flacco was very vocal in his criticism of head coach Vic Fangio’s conservatism at the end of last week's loss to the Colts. As a result, Brandon Allen, a former sixth-round pick in 2016 by the Jaguars, is set to start. The 27-year-old Allen has been waived by both Jacksonville and the Rams prior to signing with Denver after rookie quarterback Drew Lock went on IR. He has yet to throw a pass in a regular season game.
So far, the pick popularity on this one has it pretty even, with the Browns getting 53 percent of the selections from the public. Sports books that have put a line back up on the board are generally in the 2.5-point to three-point range with Cleveland as the favorite. (Prior to the Flacco news, Denver was the favorite of around 1.5 points). Right now, Cleveland is coming at value as the favorite, and where the popularity ends up will determine whether that holds true by Sunday.
Oakland Raiders (vs. Detroit)
The Raiders have lost two in a row after their bye week and finally get to return home to play Detroit. One thing to keep in mind is just how infrequently the Raiders have played in Oakland this year. This is their first true home game since Sept. 15th against the Chiefs, as they have played four games on the road plus traveled to London and had a bye since then.
Oakland is a two-point favorite against the Lions and have implied win odds of 54 percent and public pick percentage of 53 percent. While that is not a huge value, you are still getting the betting favorite in a spot where almost half the public is going the other way.
Value Gambles
If you're going to make a gamble on an underdog, you need to make sure that the potential reward (that is, how much your odds to win your pool will increase if your gamble pays off) is as big as possible. If you take a bunch of extra risk on a super trendy upset pick, the joke could be on you.
The picks below are not appropriate for all pools. If you're in a smaller, season-long pool with lots of games left, they're probably not worth the risk. However, if you're in a single-week pool with a larger number of entries -- or if you only care about winning weekly prizes -- these highly unpopular underdogs have compelling profiles.
Jacksonville (vs. Houston in London)
Jacksonville lost its first matchup with Houston back in Week 2 when Gardner Minshew made his first career start, and it came up just short on a two-point conversion in an attempt to take a late lead. This game is a near toss-up in London, with Houston as the early 1.5-point favorite. But two-thirds of the public is going with Deshaun Watson and the Texans, which provides value in weekly contests to go opposite the public and take a team that has a realistic chance of victory.
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Green Bay)
The Packers are rolling, moving to 7-1 with the road win at Kansas City on Sunday Night Football. Meanwhile, the Chargers ended a three-game losing streak, but not necessarily in impressive fashion, as they needed a late field goal miss to win in Chicago. Now, these teams will meet in Los Angeles, where the Chargers will nominally be the home team but the stands are likely to be filled with green shirts.
The Chargers come in as a three-point underdog with about a 41-percent chance of winning, according to our models. But only eight percent of the public is going with Los Angeles. While it’s not the best pick in all formats, rolling with the Chargers in larger weekly pools provides a lot of value given their extremely low popularity for a team with a realistic chance of winning.
More From TeamRankings:
Football Pick 'em Picks | NFL Survivor Picks | NFL Betting Picks
Which of these five NFL Week 9 picks should you make?
Once you know the best value opportunities of NFL Week 9, you can increase your odds to win your pool by making educated gambles on them. Maybe you bump up the number of confidence points you assign to a team like Pittsburgh or Cleveland, or you take a chance on an upset like the Chargers or Jaguars.
There are a lot of potential decisions to make, and not all of them will make sense for your specific pool. It takes a lot of data and math to get to the right answer. Fortunately, we've built technology to do all the analytical heavy lifting for you.
Our Football Pick 'em Picks product recommends the best weekly picks for your pool based on all the strategy factors that matter. You answer a few quick questions about your pool, and it shows you the weekly pick sheet that will maximize your edge. We invite you to give it (and all our other premium NFL tools) a try for free. Good luck in your NFL pick 'em contests and office pools this week!
FREE TRIAL OFFER: Sporting News readers can get a free three-day premium trial to TeamRankings, including game predictions, betting picks, and customized picks for pick 'em and survivor pools. Claim your free trial now!