Week 7 will be interesting in NFL football pools, as it features several teams that the public are picking at a lower rate than their chances to win. We discuss some of those value favorites, as well as a few unpopular underdogs, who might be worth a second look in your Week 7 NFL confidence and pick 'em pools. Armed with these tips from the experts at TeamRankings, you can make calculated bets on high-value Week 7 picks and avoid trendy upsets that aren't worth the risk.
TeamRankings is the only site that provides customized picks to maximize your edge in football pools. Last year, 80 percent of their subscribers reported winning a prize in a football pick 'em contest.
More From TeamRankings:
Football Pick 'em Picks | NFL Survivor Picks | NFL Betting Picks
FREE TRIAL OFFER: Sporting News readers can get a free three-day premium trial to TeamRankings, including game predictions, betting picks, and customized picks for pick 'em and survivor pools. Claim your free trial now!
Review of last week's picks
Last week, we highlighted three moderate favorites that were coming at a value: Carolina, Minnesota, and Washington. Carolina took advantage of numerous Jameis Winston turnovers to handle Tampa Bay in London. Minnesota won comfortably against Philadelphia at home. Washington took a 17-3 lead on Miami, and then held on for the win as Miami missed a two-point conversion attempt late. With all three favorites winning, that was three wins compared to 1.7 wins on average for the public in those games. Considering that only four other favorites won all week, we’ll take those results.
That was the good. The bad was that we also highlighted two toss-up games where the public was heavily on one side. By game time on Sunday, Jacksonville (vs. New Orleans) and Cleveland (vs. Seattle) had actually moved to being slight favorites even though the public was picking each of them less than 20 percent of the time. Seattle and New Orleans both pulled out close road wins, with Seattle coming back from a 14-point deficit. The Saints are now 5-0 in games decided by one score, while the Seahawks are 4-1 (and the one loss was to the Saints).
When you take unpopular toss-up games, it’s a value proposition because if you win, your weekly win odds shoot up because no one else has them. Whether it makes sense to take them in your pool depends on factors like your place in the standings and your prize structure.
WEEK 7 FANTASY RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Week 7 NFL Picks Advice: Tips for Pick 'em Pools
Remember, you shouldn't necessarily make all of the picks below (especially the value gambles). The best Week 7 picks for your specific NFL pool depend on several factors, including size, rules, and prize structure. Our Football Pick 'em Picks product recommends weekly picks for you based on all those factors.
Win odds and estimated national pick popularity data is subject to change between publication and kickoff. For the latest numbers, check pick 'em picks product, which updates multiple times daily.
Value Favorites
Week 7 features several teams that the public is picking at a lower rate than their chances to win, which is a change from the past four weeks. These types of teams are as close as you can get to “no-brainer picks” in NFL pick ’em contests since both win odds and value are on your side. Here are two of them:
Chicago Bears (vs. New Orleans Saints)
New Orleans is a popular choice again this week, with 57 percent of the public picking the Saints. It’s easy to see why. They have won four games in a row with Drew Brees out and Teddy Bridgewater in at quarterback. Chicago, meanwhile, lost its last game to Oakland and then had a bye.
But Chicago is a 3.5-point favorite, and our models give them a 63-percent chance of victory, so you are getting a solid favorite that's being picked at a rate more appropriate for an underdog.
The Saints have gone 5-0 in close games this year (within eight points). Maybe they can continue that hot streak in games that could go either way, but of the last 10 teams that have started a season by winning at least four more close games than they lost through the first six weeks, they finished the rest of the year just 24-26 in close games.
Tennessee Titans (vs. Los Angeles Chargers)
The Chargers have underwhelmed all season, and are coming off consecutive home losses to Denver and Pittsburgh. They stand at 2-4 with one of those victories coming against Miami. They also lost starting center Mike Pouncey to a season-ending injury before the last game.
Tennessee is also 2-4 and is coming off a shutout loss to Denver. The Titans still haven’t announced who will start at quarterback between Marcus Mariota and Ryan Tannehill, but that determination probably will not affect the line much. Tennessee is a two-point favorite with 55-percent implied win odds (our models put it at 53 percent).
It seems the public has not fully jumped off the Chargers despite how they have looked so far, and 58 percent of the public are taking them in this one, so you can once again get the betting favorite where the majority of the public is on the other side.
Unpopular Toss-up
When a matchup is pretty much a 50/50 proposition, it usually makes sense to pick the less popular team. To win an NFL pick ’em pool, you’re probably going to need some luck in these “coin flip” games, and when you get it, you want to maximize the upside by scoring points the majority of your opponents miss.
Indianapolis Colts (vs. Houston Texans)
The Colts and Texans face off in a key AFC South game. Indianapolis is coming in off the bye week, while Houston had the big win over Kansas City on Sunday. Indianapolis is a one-point favorite and has implied win odds from the betting markets of 53 percent. Our models are a little lower on the Colts, giving them a 49-percent chance of winning, but either way, it’s a toss-up with the game in Indianapolis.
The public is going with the Texans 64 percent of the time. The Colts have been a relatively unpopular team all season. In their three victories so far, the public picked them just 13 percent of the time against Tennessee, 27 percent of the time against Atlanta, and only two percent against Kansas City.
Value Gambles
If you’re going to make a gamble on an underdog, you need to make sure that the potential reward (that is, how much your odds to win your pool will increase if your gamble pays off) is as big as possible. Take a bunch of extra risk on a super trendy upset pick, and the joke is on you.
The pick below is not appropriate for all pools. If you’re in a smaller, season-long pool with lots of games left, it’s probably not worth the risk. However, if you’re in a single-week pool with a larger number of entries, or if you only care about winning weekly prizes, these highly unpopular underdogs have a compelling profile.
Atlanta Falcons (vs. Los Angeles Rams)
The Falcons are off to a dismal 1-5 start. They lost on Sunday to Arizona when kicker Matt Bryant missed an extra point that would have tied the game. Matt Ryan completed nearly 80 percent of his passes, averaged almost 10 yards per attempt, and threw four touchdowns in the loss.
Jared Goff threw for a little less than that in Sunday’s loss to San Francisco, as the Rams had the fewest net passing yards of any game in the NFL this season (48).
But the Rams are the defending NFC Champions, and the public (86-percent pick popularity) is strongly anticipating that they will end their three-game losing streak. The Rams are a three-point road favorite. Our models are a little more optimistic on Atlanta’s chances of pulling the mild upset, at 47-percent win odds compared to 43-percent win odds from the betting markets.
Either way, the Falcons are highly unpopular, and that makes them at least worth consideration in weekly prize pools.
Denver Broncos (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
The public really loves the Chiefs. They had 98-percent pick popularity when they lost two weeks ago to Indianapolis, and were picked by 90 percent of the public last week as a 3.5-point favorite at home to Houston (another loss). The Chiefs are again at 90-percent pick popularity and have a similar 3.5-point line this week at Denver.
The Kansas City defense has given up at least 180 rushing yards in four straight games, allowing teams to control possession to slow down Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are also dealing with offensive line injuries, and the net result of those two factors is the two lowest scoring games of Mahomes’ career as a starter in the last two weeks.
Denver, meanwhile, has won two in a row after an 0-4 start, and now gets to turn around and play the reeling Chiefs at home on Thursday night. With only 10 percent of the public going with the Broncos in a situation where they realistically have a shot at an upset (38-percent win odds), they are worth a look in larger weekly contests.
More From TeamRankings:
Football Pick 'em Picks | NFL Survivor Picks | NFL Betting Picks
Which of these five NFL Week 7 picks should you make?
Once you know the best value opportunities of NFL Week 7, you can increase your odds to win your pool by making educated gambles on them. Maybe you bump up the number of confidence points you assign to a team like Chicago, or you take a chance on an upset like Atlanta or Denver.
There are a lot of potential decisions to make, and not all of them will make sense for your specific pool. It takes a lot of data and math to get to the right answer. Fortunately, we've built technology to do all the analytical heavy lifting for you.
Our Football Pick 'em Picks product recommends the best weekly picks for your pool based on all the strategy factors that matter. You answer a few quick questions about your pool, and it shows you the weekly pick sheet that will maximize your edge. We invite you to give it (and all our other premium NFL tools) a try for free. Good luck in your NFL pick 'em contests and office pools this week!
FREE TRIAL OFFER: Sporting News readers can get a free three-day premium trial to TeamRankings, including game predictions, betting picks, and customized picks for pick 'em and survivor pools. Claim your free trial now!