The favorites restored some order in pick 'em and confidence pools last week, but several underdog victories, including Colts over Chiefs and Raiders over Bears, likely wreaked some havoc on your standings. Based on the results of the past couple weeks especially, you might think it's best to just flip a coin for every game in order to make your Week 6 NFL picks. But armed with the expert tips and advice below from TeamRankings, you can make calculated bets on high-value Week 6 picks in your football pool.
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Review of last week's picks
Last week, we highlighted three value favorites where the odds of winning were actually higher than how frequently the favorite was being selected: San Francisco, Minnesota, and Tennessee. The 49ers and Vikings rolled to easy wins, but the Titans missed four field goals and lost a close, low-scoring affair with Buffalo.
Altogether, the public would be expected to get 1.89 wins out of those games based on pick popularity estimates, with the Titans’ result keeping it from being a very profitable week for playing the value favorites compared to the public.
We also highlighted Dallas as a favorite at a reasonable price. Dallas moved the ball all game but shot themselves in the foot with early turnovers and miscues and lost at home. Meanwhile, the best value play as an underdog in weekly prize pools, Tampa Bay, could not pull off the upset at New Orleans.
Overall, if you took every favorite last week, you would have gotten nine wins. The public averaged 8.6 wins in a week where they leaned a little heavier on some underdogs than has been typical. It would have been a bigger week for playing favorites but for a couple of toss-up results (Arizona and the aforementioned Buffalo result) going the public’s way. Still, a slow-and-steady strategy of going with favorites while the public zigged to underdogs resulted in an above-average week in seasonal prize pools.
WEEK 6 NON-PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Week 6 NFL Picks Advice: Tips for Pick 'em Pools
It's important to note that we are not saying that you should definitely make all of the picks below (especially the value gambles). The best Week 6 picks for your NFL pool depend on several factors, including size, rules, and prize structure. Our Football Pick 'em Picks product recommends weekly picks for you based on all those factors.
Win odds and estimated national pick popularity data is subject to change between publication and kickoff. For the latest numbers, check pick 'em picks product, which updates multiple times daily.
Value Favorites
Week 6 features several teams that the public is picking at a lower rate than their chance to win, which is a change from the past four weeks. These types of teams are as close as you can get to “no-brainer" picks in NFL pick ’em contests, as both win odds and value are on your side.
Washington Redskins (at Miami)
In what looks like a battle for the top overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, Washington travels to Miami in a game between winless teams. While Washington's season has started as a disaster, it has been less of one than how Miami has started. Of course, Washington just fired its head coach, so the public might actually view it as more dysfunction. Miami is coming off a bye week, so the public might be willing to take a chance that the Dolphins have a slight advantage with extra rest and the Washington changing coaches.
Whatever the reason, the public is picking Miami at a 42-percent rate. Washington is an early 3.5-point favorite, and our models give it a 64-percent chance of victory. If you can get Washington in a situation where the public is picking it less than its actual chance of victory -- against the team that set the record for worst point differential in the first four games of a season -- it's definitely worth a look.
Carolina Panthers (vs. Tampa Bay in London)
The Panthers have won three straight and go to London where they will get a rematch with the Buccaneers. Carolina is a two-point favorite. Our power ratings are in agreement with that on a neutral field, with Carolina 2.3 points better than Tampa Bay, and our models give the Panthers a 54-percent chance of winning the game. The public, though, is slightly on the side of the Buccaneers in this one, taking Tampa Bay 52 percent of the time.
Maybe that's because the Buccaneers won the first matchup in Carolina back in Week 2. It's also possible that some people do not realize this is a neutral site game since it is technically one of Tampa Bay's home slots. But whatever the reason, you are getting a Carolina team at some value here as the slight favorite based on early pick popularity numbers.
Favorites at a Reasonable Price
Most favorites are overrated by the public, but the team below looks more fairly valued in Week 6. You should think twice about picking against them, not because we think they are a lock to win (no one ever is), but because other games offer more compelling upset opportunities.
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Philadelphia)
Minnesota is a three-point favorite at home against Philadelphia. Our models give the Vikings a 59-percent chance of victory. That is virtually in line with their 59.6-percent pick popularity to start the week. Minnesota also came at a reasonable price last week as a favorite and rolled to the win, but maybe the public is still harboring some ill will based on how the Vikings played against the Bears and Packers (both on the road) in their two losses.
The Eagles are certainly a solid team that can win this one on the road, but Minnesota has home-field advantage and enough people are picking the upset that staying with the favorite makes sense here from a value perspective. For contrast on why this is value, compare the pick percentage here for the Vikings to the two games below, where the public is heavily on two teams that are not favored by as much as Minnesota.
Unpopular Toss-Ups
When a matchup is pretty much a 50/50 proposition, it usually makes sense to pick the less popular team. To win an NFL pick ’em pool, you’re probably going to need some luck in these “coin flip” games, and when you get it, you want to maximize the upside by scoring points the majority of your opponents miss.
Cleveland Browns (vs. Seattle)
Cleveland laid an absolute egg in San Francisco. How much of that is Cleveland and how much of it is because the 49ers are really good? Our predictive ratings have San Francisco as the third-best team in the NFL entering Week 6 and Cleveland at slightly below average.
Seattle has not been a powerhouse, so just looking at their record likely causes some public overconfidence here. Seattle beat the Bengals and Steelers by a combined three points and just survived against the Rams on a late missed field goal. Our power ratings have Seattle at 1.1 points over average and Cleveland at 0.9 points below average, so factoring in home-field advantage, this one is close to a toss-up.
The early point spread has Seattle favored by 1.5 points, making it the second-smallest line of the week so far. But the public is going with the Seahawks 81 percent of the time. Our models give Cleveland a 48.9-percent chance of winning at home, so this one is very attractive as a toss-up or value underdog play in weekly prize pool formats. It is also a consideration in seasonal prize pools depending on size and scoring.
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. New Orleans)
Minshew Mania or Bridgewater Buzz? At least for one week, it seems like the public is more enamored with how the Saints have responded to the Brees injury. Last week was the first week with Minshew starting that the Jaguars failed to cover the spread. It was through no fault of his, as the Jaguars offense had over 500 yards. Minshew was efficient in throwing for 374 yards and two touchdowns. The problem, for one week, was the rush defense, as Carolina RB Christian McCaffrey exploded for a big game.
This one is on the road for the Saints. As a result, the Jaguars are actually a slight one-point favorite. Our models give Jacksonville a 47.9-percent chance of winning, while the implied win odds from early money lines put Jacksonville at 51.5 percent to win. Either way, it's close to a toss-up, and the public is picking the Saints heavily here (85-percent pick popularity).
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Which of these five NFL Week 6 picks should you make?
Once you know the best value opportunities of NFL Week 6, you can increase your odds to win your pool by making educated gambles on them. Maybe you bump up the number of confidence points you assign to a team like Carolina or Washington, or you take a chance on an unpopular team like Jacksonville or Cleveland.
There are a lot of potential decisions to make, and not all of them will make sense for your specific pool. It takes a lot of data and math to get to the right answer. Fortunately, we've built technology to do all the analytical heavy lifting for you.
Our Football Pick 'em Picks product recommends the best weekly picks for your pool based on all the strategy factors that matter. You answer a few quick questions about your pool, and it shows you the weekly pick sheet that will maximize your edge. We invite you to give it (and all our other premium NFL tools) a try for free. Good luck in your NFL pick'em contests and office pools this week!
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