Tom Brady has been called "old reliable" around the office a couple times in the past week. Fantasy football owners have been plugging him into their lineups for almost two decades. When it comes to 2019 Week 4, though, we're worried old reliable might bust, in part due to a tough matchup and in part due to potential absences. Joining him on our Week 4 fantasy busts list is rookie David Montgomery, to add some youth to the equation.
In fact, rookie running backs don't please us at all this week. Josh Jacobs has us worried that his workload in a stinky offense might not be enough to replicate his fantastic Week 1. Brady's joined by another long-time fantasy stalwart, Matt Ryan, as a potential disappointment. And we've got a few prominent names in the WR/TE sections, including Michael Thomas, Josh Gordon and O.J. Howard, probably players you plan on starting most weeks.
WEEK 4 NON-PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Obviously, starting or sitting these players is dependent on who else you roster. Most teams won't be able to afford sitting Thomas - the same might be true for owners who have Brady or Ryan, especially as we've begun bye weeks. You should just think a little longer, and maybe consider some of our sleeper list as possible replacements for the names in this article.
We got some of our Week 4 bust picks very right. James Conner and Baker Mayfield, our two headliners, both had poor games and would've been better served on your fantasy bench. The same could be said for Josh Jacobs, Emmanuel Sanders, Vance McDonald, and the Ravens defense (although that was an easy one).
WEEK 4 DFS LINEUPS:
DK cash | DK GPP | FD cash | FD GPP | Y! cash | Y! GPP
We whiffed terribly on Darren Waller, who had his best game of the season. Will Dissly and Terry McLaurin also continued hot starts to the season, while Tyler Boyd and Matt Ryan had solid games. Aaron Jones technically had a decent fantasy game because he scored two touchdowns, but the yardage and snaps indicate he might need to be a bust again this week.
For our Week 4 sleeper picks, click here.
WEEK 4: Waiver pickups | FAAB planner | Trade values | Snap counts
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Week 4 Fantasy Busts: Running backs
Josh Jacobs, Raiders @ Colts (Billy Heyen). Jacobs hasn't looked good since his promising debut, and his snaps have fallen each week this season. Maybe Oakland hangs around in this game longer, and maybe Jon Gruden's desire to get Jacobs more involved plays out, but there's just a lot of downside to starting Jacobs this week if he only winds up with 10 touches.
Devonta Freeman, Falcons vs. Titans (Vinnie Iyer). The Titans tend to tighten the screws against the run, and this quickly can become another pass-happy game at home.
David Montgomery, Bears vs. Vikings (Matt Lutovsky). We all got excited about Montgomery after his 18-carry game in Week 2, but then we tuned in last Monday night to see him do hardly anything until late in the game. Workload is a major issue, and a Vikings defense that limited Devonta Freeman and Josh Jacobs to a combined 56 yards in Weeks 1 and 3 can hold down an underused Montgomery.
WEEK 4 PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
Week 4 Fantasy Football Busts: Quarterbacks
Matt Ryan, Falcons vs. Titans (Heyen). Ryan has managed three good fantasy games, but each week, it's been pretty ugly for a majority of the contests. The Titans have decent players in their secondary, and Ryan's poor play is due to catch up to him with a poor statistical outing.
Baker Mayfeld, Browns @ Ravens (Iyer). The Ravens’ defense isn’t scary, but the play-calling and Mayfield's play makes me too nervous to trust him on the road after his bad start to the season.
Tom Brady, Patriots @ Bills (Lutovsky). It's usually not smart to bet against Brady, but the Bills are allowing the fifth fewest fantasy points per game (FPPG) to QBs. To be fair, they've faced Sam Darnold, Eli Manning, and Andy Dalton, so Brady is definitely a step up, but with Julian Edelman less than 100 percent and Tre'Davious White likely shutting down Josh Gordon, Brady will have to primarily rely on either a big play from Phillip Dorsett or the dink-and-dunk game to the RBs to rack up points. His ceiling is lower than usual in this one.
MORE WEEK 4 DFS: Top values | Stacks | Lineup Builder
Week 4 Fantasy Football Busts: Wide receivers
Michael Thomas, Saints vs. Cowboys (Heyen). Teddy Bridgewater just doesn't make this offense move well. The Cowboys should control the clock with the run game, meaning less time for Thomas to shine. Thomas managed to catch five-of-seven targets with a touchdown in Week 3, but without the score, his 54-yard day would excite no one.
Josh Gordon, Patriots @ Bills (Iyer). He’ll be seeing plenty of Tre’Davious White, making it a better day for the other New England pass-catchers.
DJ Chark, Jaguars @ Broncos (Lutovsky). We've been wrong about Terry McLaurin the past two weeks, but we'll apply the same logic to Chark. At some point, he's going to stop scoring touchdowns, right? In a tough road game against a Broncos defense allowing the fourth fewest FPPG to WRs, Chark figures to disappoint.
Week 4 Fantasy Football Busts: Tight ends
O.J. Howard, Buccaneers @ Rams (Heyen). Howard's averaged three targets a week, including a goose egg in Week 2, and the Rams' front seven should cause problems for Jameis Winston all day long. Howard won't get enough involvement, and certainly not enough high-efficiency involvement, to be anything more than a back-end TE start this week.
Mark Andrews, Ravens vs. Browns (Iyer). He’s suddenly being hurt by usages of Nick Boyle and Hayden Hurst, and he’s also still dealing with a foot injury.
Greg Olsen, Panthers @ Texans (Lutovsky). Olsen has put up huge numbers the past two weeks, so it's unlikely his owners are willing to sit him for some rando off the waiver wire, but this matchup isn't great on paper. Houston hasn't faced any teams that really feature the tight end position (Saints, Jaguars, Chargers), so perhaps its "dominance" against the position is overblown, but with just 11 catches and 90 yards allowed to TEs this year, Olsen might be left out of the fun this week.
Week 4 Fantasy Busts: Defenses
Washington Redskins @ Giants (Heyen). No Saquon Barkley didn't slow down Daniel Jones in Week 3's second half, and I expect him to carry his momentum into his first home start. Washington's an interesting play against the rookie, but the Giants should find ways to put up points after Mitchell Trubisky shredded them in the first half of Monday Night Football in Week 3.
Seattle Seahawks @ Cardinals (Iyer). It might be tempting to use them against a rookie QB who just got sacked eight times at home, but they can get shredded by the quick passing game, and that’s exactly what Kyler Murray does.
Dallas Cowboys @ Saints (Lutovsky). The Cowboys majorly disappointed against the Giants and Redskins in Weeks 1 and 2, then didn't even reach expectations against the Dolphins in Week 3. It feels like Teddy Bridgewater should make mistakes, but it's more likely he just leads some drives that stall out and winds up taking a sack, maybe throwing one pick, and ultimately limiting the Cowboys' D/ST ceiling.