As most fantasy football leagues ready for their semifinals, straying away from starting potential landmines like Royce Freeman, Dak Prescott, and Tyler Allgeier might be a wise endeavor, as all three draw rough matchups. Those three are among our Week 16 fantasy bust list, which breaks down this week's crop of potential disappointments that could ruin your championship aspirations.
Even "must-starts" can struggle (we were counting on you Brandon Aiyuk), but you see those types of players among our bust picks unless we legitimately advise benching them. We try to target players on the start-sit bubble -- not obvious plays and not players owned in just a limited number of leagues. You might not have enough depth to bench the players below -- or you might just completely disagree with our picks -- but either way, it's your team, so make the decisions that work best for you.
We were slightly over .500 on last week's bust picks, predicting underwhelming finishes from Samaje Perine, Antonio Gibson, D'Onta Foreman, Jared Goff, Marquise Brown, DJ Chark, and Tampa Bay's D/ST. We'll do our best this week to help punch your ticket to championship week.
WEEK 16 FANTASY PICKS: Sleepers | Start 'em, sit 'em
Let's dig into our Week 16 bust picks.
Week 16 Fantasy Busts: Running backs
Brian Robinson, Commanders @ 49ers (Nick Musial). Robinson played on just 38 percent of the Commanders' offensive snaps in their Week 15 loss, and a similar snap share could be in the cards this week in Santa Clara. Robinson's low snap share was a result of the Commanders trailing the majority of the contest, and as 7.5-point road underdogs, it's likely Washington plays from behind for a second straight week. His lack of usage in the passing game always caps his ceiling in PPR formats, and with Antonio Gibson seeing his usage spike in pass-centric game states, Gibson could very well outscore Robinson.
Royce Freeman, Texans vs. Titans (Vinnie Iyer). He won’t be much of a free runner against Tennessee’s ultra-stingy run defense.
Tyler Allgeier, Falcons @ Ravens (Matt Lutovsky). Allgeier had a career day in Week 15, but in the four previous games, he averaged just 43.3 total yards with no scores. Baltimore allows the third-fewest rushing yards and sixth-fewest fantasy points to RBs, so Allgeier will be TD-or-bust while splitting carries with Cordarrelle Patterson.
WEEK 16 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Week 16 Fantasy Busts: Quarterbacks
Deshaun Watson, Browns vs. Saints (Musial). Watson's yet to prove he's a "must start" through three games, and Saturday's projected blizzard in Cleveland is yet another reason to leave him on your bench. Cleveland's offense is likely to rely heavily on their ground game, and unless Watson's able to chip in with his legs, he's likely to finish as a bottom-20 QB this week in a game with the lowest total of the season (32.5).
Derek Carr, Raiders at Steelers (Iyer). Don’t go chasing the Patriots’ points against an improving Steelers defense.
Dak Prescott, Cowboys vs. Eagles (Lutovsky). No team allows fewer fantasy points to QBs than the Eagles, so even though Prescott has been mostly solid since returning from his ankle injury, he has a lower floor and ceiling than usual. You can certainly stick with him if there are no better options, but he’s not a “must-start” like he usually is.
WEEK 16 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Week 16 Fantasy Football Busts: Wide receivers
Tyler Boyd, Bengals @ Patriots (Musial). Boyd salvaged what would have been a below-average fantasy showing with a three-yard touchdown reception in Cincinnati's come-from-behind Week 15 win over Tampa Bay. He's been on the decline since Week 9, logging just two double-digit fantasy outputs over Cincinnati's past six games. A matchup against a Patriots defense that sports the best EPA/drop-back (-0.114 EPA) isn't great for Boyd owners, as he's better suited for bench relegation this week.
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers vs. Commanders (Iyer). He really needed Jimmy G and Deebo to help him in different ways, and he can be quiet again.
Adam Thielen and K.J. Osborn, Vikings vs. Giants (Lutovsky). Osborn led the Vikings in receiving in Week 15 while Thielen hauled in his third TD in the past four games. In Minnesota’s high-powered attack, both always have some upside, but against the Giants, who allow the 10th-fewest fantasy points to WRs, neither is particularly trustworthy. It’s tough to project how many targets each will get, so you can’t bank on an encore performance.
WEEK 16 DFS LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuel
Week 16 Fantasy Football Busts: Tight ends
Cole Kmet, Bears vs. Bills (Musial). Kmet's best fantasy showings have come when he reaches the end zone, and with the Bears not expected to score many points, don't be surprised to see Kmet post a dud this week. He'll be tasked with going against a Bills defense allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. No bueno.
David Njoku, Browns vs. Saints (Iyer). The Saints are very good vs. the position, and Deshaun Watson is fickle throwing to him. Blizzard-like conditions won't help.
Gerald Everett, Chargers @ Colts (Lutovsky). The Colts are middle of the road against TEs, but Everett hasn’t scored since Week 4 and has only posted two games with more than 42 yards in that span. With Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Joshua Palmer all healthy, there are only so many targets to go around for L.A.’s other pass-catchers, leaving Everett with a low floor and ceiling this week.
Week 16 Fantasy Busts: Defenses
Washington Commanders @ 49ers (Musial). Washington's inability to stop the run in their Week 15 loss to the Giants spells trouble against San Francisco. As long as Brock Purdy takes care of the football, the Commanders' defense is likely to underwhelm for a second straight week.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Eagles (Iyer). Don’t be cute and play them vs. Gardner Minshew. They’re not playing well all of a sudden and won’t make enough plays.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Cowboys (Lutovsky). Even if the Cowboys are slowed offensively, that doesn’t necessarily mean Philadelphia’s D/ST will have a big game. Thanks to a strong running game and few sacks allowed, no team allows fewer fantasy points to defenses than Dallas. The Eagles still have a decent floor, but their ceiling is much lower than usual.
