It's Week 1, and yes, we've got busts. It's harder to know how matchups or workloads will play out, but that didn't stop us from trying to save your fantasy football lineups from embarrassment and doom. Only a fool would sit Aaron Rodgers in Week 1, right? Oh, well actually, that Bears defense is pretty worrisome. He's not even the only future Hall-of-Fame quarterback on our bust list (we're looking at you, Drew Brees and maybe Cam Newton). We're also not sure what to think about the Patriots and Eagles offense, as multiple contributors from each, including running backs Miles Sanders and Sony Michel, make our list.
In general, these players are borderline plays (or at least we think they should be). They're the ones you'll be tweeting about to fantasy analysts on Sunday, hoping someone will answer and tell you what to do. We've already got you covered right here.
Week 1 Non-PPR Rankings:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
We're not advising that you avoid these players entirely. In a lot of leagues, you might not have a better option. But if you see a lot of these names in your lineup, you could be in for a rough week. There are reasons that all of these players might struggle, and that's why they've made our busts list for Week 1. For our Week 1 sleepers, click here.
WEEK 1 PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
Week 1 Fantasy Busts: Running backs
Devonta Freeman, Falcons @ Vikings (Billy Heyen). Minnesota allowed the eighth-fewest yards per carry in 2018, and the Vikings were much worse against the pass. I'd expect Atlanta to air it out in Week 1, making Freeman less important to its offense. There's also the added complications of this being Freeman's first regular season game since missing much of last season with injury, and the presence of Ito Smith for a few touches, too.
Sony Michel, Patriots vs. Steelers (Vinnie Iyer). Pittsburgh was very stingy to running backs last season and now has rookie linebacker Devin Bush flying across the field to provide a rangy boost on the second level. This also is a week to cool the jets on James White in the passing game.
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Miles Sanders, Eagles vs. Redskins (Matt Lutovsky). The Eagles generally employ a committee backfield, and it’s hard to imagine a rookie getting the bulk of the touches in Week 1. Washington had an underrated defense last year, ranking in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points per game (FPPG) allowed to RBs. Sanders is basically a TD-or-bust play.
Week 1 DFS Lineups:
FD Cash | DK Cash | FD GPP | DK GPP | Y! GPP | Y! Cash
Week 1 Fantasy Football Busts: Quarterbacks
Drew Brees, Saints vs. Texans (Heyen). Brees was one of the more inconsistent quarterbacks in fantasy football in 2018, and it won't be an easy start to 2019. Even without Jadeveon Clowney, the Houston defense poses a formidable pass-rush/secondary combo. Even in a raucous home environment to start the season, Brees might get off to an underwhelming start.
Cam Newton, Panthers vs. Rams (Iyer). Between the shoulder and the foot and a Wade Phillips' pressure defense that can force him into some key mistakes, there's no reason to take the chance on Cam early, instead taking the wait-and-see approach and rolling with a high-end backup in a better matchup.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers @ Bears (Lutovsky). Rodgers is capable of a solid game whenever he’s on the field, so calling him a “bust” is relative. There are so many other good QBs with better matchups this week that you don’t need to force Rodgers into your lineup. It’s entirely possible you have a backup (Kirk Cousins? Lamar Jackson?) who’s a better play than Rodgers on the road against the league’s best defense.
WEEK 1 DFS: Values | Stacks | Lineup Builder
Week 1 Fantasy Football Busts: Wide receivers
Alshon Jeffery, Eagles vs. Redskins (Heyen). According to Rotowire alignment data, Jeffery will line up on Josh Norman's side of the field about a third of the time. That's enough time spent near a lockdown corner to go from a borderline start to a player you should sit. Jeffery had 3-31 and 5-59 against Washington last season, so the odds of him having a big game aren't too high.
Robby Anderson, Jets vs. Bills (Iyer). He's fighting through a calf injury as an outside speed receiver, and at less than full strength, he is bound to draw the difficult matchup with top Buffalo corner Tre'Davious White.
Josh Gordon, Patriots vs. Steelers (Lutovsky). If you have Gordon, chances are you’re going to play him. There’s just something about seeing his name on your roster that screams “high ceiling”. But is he really? He had a fairly high floor once he joined the Patriots last year but only one game with more than 11.8 standard-league points. Given the time he missed this preseason and the relatively tough matchup against Pittsburgh, he’s not a must-start.
Week 1 Fantasy Football Busts: Tight ends
Eric Ebron, Colts @ Chargers (Heyen). No Andrew Luck? That's a problem. Ebron was touchdown-dependent in 2018, and with probably less drives getting near the end zone, Ebron will lose value with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. On top of that, the Chargers have one of football's best defenses, so while you drafted Ebron as a starter, you shouldn't expect much to start the season.
David Njoku, Browns vs. Titans (Iyer). Njoku is a borderline TE1 going into '19 after finishing 11th (standard) and 12th (PPR) in FPPG last season. The offense hasn't changed schematically, but it added another major target in Odell Beckham Jr. Tennessee allowed the second-fewest FFPG to the position in '18.
Greg Olsen, Panthers vs. Rams (Lutovsky). The Rams weren’t great against TEs last year, tying for the eighth-most FPPG allowed, so this is more of a pick against Olsen and Cam Newton. We still have worries about Newton’s health, and at this point, it’s unclear what Olsen has in the tank.
Week 1 Fantasy Busts: Defenses
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chiefs (Heyen). This is an easy one, but if you drafted Jacksonville as your starting defense, you're probably wanting to avoid them in Week 1 against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' high-powered offense.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Colts (Iyer). Jacoby Brissett and Indianapolis will move the ball better than expected in the opener vs. a Derwin James-less defense. Indy doesn't give up sacks and should have some success running the ball to avoid big turnovers.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Falcons (Lutovsky). Matt Ryan is typically worse on the road, but the fact this game is in a stadium with a roof makes us feel a little better. Minnesota’s defense has the capability to shut down anyone, but Atlanta has enough weapons and sturdy enough O-line that we don’t see many points for the Vikings unless they score a touchdown.