Last week at the WGC-Match Play we hit our first winner of the season, and boy was it a big one with Kevin Kisner at 66/1. Golf handicapping and betting can be a frustrating endeavor, but it’s big hits like last week that can make golf betting and PGA DFS one of the most fun (and profitable) sports to follow and bet on. This week, we’ll try and stay hot with a few more deeper punts at the Valero-Texas Open -- the final tuneup before the Masters next week.
The Valero-Texas Open is typically played in May, but the new schedule has bumped this event to the pre-Masters tuneup, a spot that had been reserved for the Houston Open over the last few years. The course this week is TPC San Antonio, which is a long 7,400-yard, Par-72 layout that is a Greg Norman design. Norman was going through a divorce at the time that he was designing this layout, which might explain why this is one of the more difficult courses on the tour rota.
MORE ROTOQL: Lineup Builder
TPC San Antonio is one of the few courses that really places an emphasis on off-the-tee game, and both driving distance and accuracy will be important to success this week. The winds can also get blowing at a steady 15-20 MPH around this course, so overall ball striking is going to be a huge factor.
This is probably the weakest field that we have seen all season, with Rickie Fowler, Matt Kuchar, Tony Finau, and Jordan Spieth being the most notable players who will be teeing it up. We have seen plenty of first-time winners at this event over the years, with four of the past eight winners at TPC San Antonio being falling into that category. With that in mind, I will be completely fading the top of this field and looking to target players who are looking for a breakout victory in an attempt to sneak their way into next week’s field at Augusta with a win.
Before we get into this week's picks, we have to point out that plenty of strategy goes into cashing winning DFS lineups and winning betting tickets. By now you should know the best place to start is RotoQL’s DFS tools and the BetQL Mobile App. Our easy-to-use RotoQL PGA Lineup Optimizer gives you a big advantage when you're putting together DFS lineups, and our BetQL Trending Picks and Public Betting tools provide a massive edge when you're making bets, regardless of bankroll size.
I'm always ready to help, too, so check me out on Twitter (@DFSBenj) for even more NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA daily fantasy content and gambling advice.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach
Approach 175>200
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Total Driving
Valero Texas Open picks (Daily Fantasy Golf)
DFS Core Plays to Consider:
Top Tier: Tony Finau, Jason Kokrak, Lucas Bjerregaard
Mid-Range: Luke List, Daniel Berger, Sung Kang, Joel Dahmen
Value Plays: Trey Mullinax, Bud Cauley, J.T. Poston, Matt Jones, Rory Sabbatini
Valero Texas Open betting advice
Outright Bets to Consider
*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Jason Kokrak 22/1
My own personal bankroll strategy is to go fairly light this week with some sprinkles on guys with deeper odds to save up for next week. I’m looking to fully fade the “elite” players in this field because you have to think that their mindset is partly on preparing for Augusta instead of winning this week. One guy toward the top of the board who I don’t have those concerns about is Kokrak, who has been playing some of the most consistent golf of his entire career this season and finished runner-up his last time out at the Valspar. Kokrak is long off the tee and has been excellent with his ball striking this season. He is not yet in the Masters field, so a win here this week would truly be career changing.
Joaquin Niemann 66/1
Niemann was a guy who myself and many others probably thought would have a PGA Tour victory or two by now, but he hasn’t been able to rack up the top-10 finishes this season that he was able to during his rookie campaign. This type of event is the perfect setting for Niemann to have a breakout win, as a course that places an emphasis on total driving and ball striking is a great fit for what Niemann does well. I wish his odds were a little deeper, but I’m still going to bite at 66/1 and throw in a small T10 bet at +650.
Daniel Berger 66/1
Berger has been struggling for the past year, but in terms of overall talent, he should not be 66/1 in a field that is this week. There is nothing about Berger’s form that would lead me to believe that a win is around the corner, but he is worth a punt at this number in a weak-field event. Berger is another player who hasn’t qualified for the Masters, so there shouldn’t be any doubts about his motivation level.
Trey Mullinax 125/1
Mullinax almost got his first career victory at this event last season after carding a tournament-best score of 62 on Saturday en route to a second place finish. Mullinax is excellent off the tee, and his game sets up well for the layout at TPC San Antonio. While he doesn’t have a top-10 finish yet this season, he has made 9/13 cuts and has played well at driver heavy courses such as TPC Scottsdale (T15) and Torrey Pines (T25) this season.