Today's MLB Picks: Betting odds, Vegas totals, expert gambling advice for Thursday, April 4

Bennett Bedford

Today's MLB Picks: Betting odds, Vegas totals, expert gambling advice for Thursday, April 4 image

Thursday might's MLB action features a small slate with most of the games starting in the afternoon. Last night, we continued our early-season hot streak, going 2-1 on our best bets with wins on Atlanta and Texas and our lone loss on the A’s money line to the Red Sox.

We haven’t yet focused on any total or team total bets thus far this season, but that changes tonight, as there is a total that the BetQL models love. We also have another game in which we can pick on Angels starter Matt Harvey as the red-hot Rangers head down to Los Angeles fresh off the heels of taking two out of three games from the Astros.

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Before we get into the picks, we have to remind you the best place to start researching for a winning ticket is the BetQL Mobile App. Our Trending Picks and Public Betting tools offer a big edge when you're making bets, regardless of bankroll. For more gambling and MLB DFS advice, follow me on Twitter (@DFSBenj).

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MLB Picks: Odds, betting trends for Thursday, April 4

*All screenshots are from the BetQL Trending Value Bets Page

** All lines are subject to change. The best way to stay up to date on the current lines is to become a BetQL subscriber.

Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves

Starting Pitchers: Yu Darvish (RHP) vs. Max Fried (LHP)
Money Line: CHC +100, ATL -120
Run Line: CHC +1.5 (-200), ATL (+170
Total: O/U 8.5

The Braves came through for us last night with a straight up victory over the Cubs and will look to complete the sweep tonight at home. The BetQL models don’t see a lot of value on either of these teams in this game, but they slightly favor the Braves as -120 favorites. However, this is a great spot to target taking the OVER on the run total of 8.5. The Cubs will throw starter Yu Darvish, who has struggled with his consistency over the past year, while the Braves will start LHP Max Fried, who projects to be a bottom-of-the-rotation stater. Darvish was lit up for three earned runs in less than three innings in his first start of the season, and a road start against the offensively potent Braves is not a great spot for him to bounce back. Fried, meanwhile, does have some excellent strikeout upside, but it’s hard to projection him to pitch more than five or six innings at this stage of the season even if he does have some early success against this Cubs lineup. The Cubs bullpen has also been a complete mess right now, having blown three save opportunities through its first five games.

BetQL Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-120)

Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels

Starting Pitchers: Edinson Volquez vs. Matt Harvey
Money Line: TEX +120, LAA -140
Spread: TEX +1.5 (-165), LAA -1.5 (+140)
Total: O/U 8.5

It’s "Matt Harvey Night" for the Angels, and that means that we are going to continue to ride with the Rangers as +120 ML underdogs. Texas is hot right now after winning two of three games against the Astros and have started the season 4-2 overall. Harvey has really struggled for the past two-plus years and has allowed a horrendous 37-percent hard contact rate over the past year. This could lead to a short night for a power-hitting lineup such as Rangers that owns a .204 team ISO over the past season. The BetQL models have been on fire with taking underdogs so far and think that this line should be closer to +110/-110 rather than the +120/-140 money line split that we are currently seeing.

BetQL Pick: Texas Rangers +120

 

Check out BetQL Mobile App's Trending Picks and Public Betting tools before making all your bets, and follow me on Twitter (@DFSBenj) for even more NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA daily fantasy and sports betting content.

Bennett Bedford