The FedEx Cup Playoffs are here, and it’s crunch time for the world’s best golfers to finish the season strong. The playoffs have been cut from four events to just three, so there will be added pressure to perform this week (for the golfers and the bet placers). Liberty National Golf Club will host the PGA Tour’s top-122 players who qualified for the playoffs, and it is one of the best venues in American golf. Liberty National hosted the 2017 Presidents Cup and last hosted a PGA Tour event in 2013, which was won by Adam Scott with a winning score of -11. Liberty National features pristine views of downtown Manhattan and the Statue of Liberty, and it's one of the most scenic courses in the Northeast despite being built on a former landfill.
Liberty National is a challenging layout that is a real test for the best players in the world. It’s reasonably long at 7,350 yards for a par 71 layout and will place a heavy emphasis on driving. The fairways aren’t extremely narrow, but there is thick fescue, water and tricky bunkering should players miss the fairway. Golfers will have to be both long and straight off the tee, and this is a week where I will be placing a heavy emphasis on gaining strokes off of the tee.
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While the approach isn’t quite as important as off the tee, there is still plenty of trouble to be found around the greens. The bunkering around the greens is especially difficult, and I’ll be looking at both SG: Around the Greens, and to a lesser extent Sand Save Percentage to help make my picks. Outside of the WGC Invitational, we have seen birdie fest-type events for most of the second half of the season. That will change this week with -2 or -3 for a round being a great score.
We've been able to look at players with deep odds over the last few weeks as well, but I want to target the top players at this event. Just take a look at the last few winners of The Northern Trust: Bryson Dechambeau, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, and Jason Day -- all top-25 players in Official World Golf Rankings at the time of their win.
Before we get into this week's picks, here's a reminder to check me out on Twitter ( @DFSBenj ) for even more NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA daily fantasy content and gambling advice.
Key Stats for Liberty National Golf Club
Ball Striking
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Around the Greens
Par 4 Scoring
The Northern Trust betting advice
Outright Bets to Consider
*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Justin Thomas 22/1
2019 has to be seen as a somewhat disappointing year for Justin Thomas. Despite playing fairly well with six top-10 finishes, Thomas has yet to secure a win. A player the quality of Thomas won’t be held out of the winner’s circle for long, and this week at Liberty National sets up well for his tee-to-green game. JT’s game has been trending in the right direction since missing the cut at the U.S. Open -- going 4/4 in cuts with finishes of T9, T11, and T12 in his last three events. 22/1 is nice value, and starting your card with Thomas allows you to jam in a few more players in the 20/1-40/1 range, which is valuable at an event that has a truly elite field.
Patrick Cantlay 25/1
I’m admittedly a hater of Patrick Cantlay. Watching him stand over the ball for 20 seconds before each shot is cringeworthy, but I won’t let my bias distract from the fact that he sets up perfectly for this week at Liberty National. Cantlay is an elite ball-striker who has taken his game to another level in 2019. The most significant improvement has to be Cantlay's short game. He ranks 9th on Tour in SG: Around the Green, and 43rd in Sand Save Percentage -- both being vast improvements over his career averages. 25/1 is an appropriate price, and I wouldn’t have any problem if you wanted to start your card with Cantlay or make him your 2nd outright bet if you're going to grab one of the favorites in the field.
Adam Scott 45/1
Adam Scott has been frustrating to bet on this season. On one hand, he has drastically improved his putting woes that have held him back over the last few seasons, but he has still been too inconsistent to challenge for wins in 2019. With that being said, Scott won at Liberty National the last time the PGA Tour hosted an event here, and a difficult layout where the winning score should be in the -10 to -12 range will suit Scott’s style of play. Scott’s ball-striking remains elite, and a SG: Around the Green ranking of 10th makes me think that his game is where it needs to be to grab a win in an elite field. I love the 45/1 number and would be willing to wager on Scott up to 38/1.
Marc Leishman 90/1
I’ve been a week early on Marc Leishman all year long. I bet on him to win The Open, and he missed the cut. He then followed that up with a T2 in his next outing at the WGC Invitational after firing a 63-67 on the weekend on a tough layout. I will always give the big Australian a look at courses where he can pound driver off the tee, and Liberty National will certainly allow him to do that given its 7,350-yard layout. Leishman is an excellent value at 90/1 and is one of the few players in that price tier that has a proven track record of contending (and winning) against elite fields.