The FedEx Cup Playoffs get underway this week with The Northern Trust at Liberty National GC. With so much focus this week on which of the many available studs to jam into your lineups, there is a huge edge to be gained by leveraging the lower end of the pricing spectrum. A slightly smaller-than usual field means that each golfer has a higher probability of making the cut, so it may be worth the risk to target some overlooked salary-savers. The flurry of big names near average salary will produce a significant portion of DFS lineups which favor balance. Forgoing this approach by carefully targeting upside bargains can earn you leverage on the most expensive and elite golfers in the field, allowing you to implement a contrarian strategy despite having heavy exposure to the best players.
MORE: The Northern Trust Betting Advice | RotoQL Lineup Builder
*If you are interested in taking your DFS golf lineup building strategy to the next level, you should consider using a lineup optimizer, and RotoQL offers the best optimizer available in the industry .
The Northern Trust picks and PGA DFS strategy
Target Golfers
Corey Conners has been one of the most volatile golfers on tour this season, making only half of his cuts while also posting three top-10s, including a win at the Valero Texas Open. What makes Conners particularly interesting is that he leads the PGA Tour in greens in regulation. While he excels in GIR%, however, he often coughs up that advantage by losing ground with his putting. The push and pull between these two stats may well explain the unpredictability and wide range of his results. This also means that when Conners putts well, he is incredibly dangerous. In his last two tournaments, Conners finished T27th and T22nd, so he comes into this week playing well. At his dirt cheap price, another good putting week could lead to Conners gliding his way into the winning lineup in GPPs.
Speaking of extreme results, Si Woo Kim missed six-straight cuts coming into last week. He responded with a 5th place showing that seemingly came out of nowhere. Kim has certainly cemented himself as the king of volatility, missing nearly half of his cuts but also producing five top-10s. Although Kim has a propensity to post some ugly performances, he also already has two wins on the PGA Tour in his young career and has shown that he has the talent to produce some huge fantasy lines. With volatile players, strong performances can come in bunches, such as Kim showed back in April when he followed up a T4th at the Valero Texas Open with a T21st at the Masters in an obviously loaded field. Kim’s performance last week indicated that he may be starting to feel it again, and at such a low price and what will almost certainly be minimal ownership, he could do a lot of damage.
Which Sergio Garcia will show up this week? The 10-time PGA Tour and Masters winner with six top-10s on the season, or the golfer whose inconsistency has forced him down the pricing scale and into the doghouse of nearly every DFS player? Predicting Garcia’s performance week-to-week at this point is nearly impossible. Compared to most of the other golfers in his price range, he has a more proven track record of successfully competing against the top golfers in the field. If Garcia is on, he has shown throughout his career, and still this season, that he is more than capable of snaring a high finish. DFS players are so fed up with Garcia’s inability to produce with any dependability that I expect the fact that he is underpriced to be overlooked. At low ownership, Garcia can help you afford some of the most coveted golfers in the field, and he may even land up at the top with them as he has done so many times before.
Aaron White graduated from Northwestern University with a B.A. in Economics. He has played DFS professionally for several years and has won featured NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and golf GPPs on both FanDuel and DraftKings.