It seems like Saints Swiss Army knife Taysom Hill enters the 'sleeper' conversation in fantasy football at least once or twice a year. Most of the time he garners our attention, we bite, and he flops and fades back into obscurity the moment we buy in. This week, we're biting with New Orleans traveling to Lambeau to play the Packers. We have legitimate reason to believe he's a top-10 tight end with top-five upside.
The Saints' backfield has seen better days. Alvin Kamara remains suspended for his role in a Las Vegas battery case. Jamaal Williams suffered a hamstring injury on Monday Night Football against the Panthers earlier this week. Rookie Kendre Miller missed the first two games of the season with a hamstring injury of his own, but should make his NFL debut this weekend. Tony Jones Jr. found the end zone twice on Monday, but averaged just 2.8 yards per carry across his 12 attempts. Kirk Merritt, a WR/RB hybrid, was waived on Friday.
Long story short, the three ballcarriers available for Dennis Allen's Saints this Sunday are Hill, Jones, and Miller, the latter of whom has played zero regular-season snaps in the NFL. And if you look at Miller's preseason stats, you realize the TCU product is raw and unpolished. In three games, he scored one TD but netted just 42 yards on 22 carries. That's 1.9 yards per carry, even worse than Jones Jr. was against Carolina.
Hill, meanwhile, looked awesome on Monday. The tight end/quarterback/running back hybrid — who remains solely eligible at tight end on Yahoo and many other fantasy sites, despite his versatility — rushed nine times for 75 yards against the Panthers. He added one catch for -1 yard, which counts as 0.9 points in decimal-scoring PPR leagues. His final fantasy line at the end of the night: 10 touches, 8.72 PPR points.
WEEK 3 FANTASY: Sleepers | Busts | Start 'em, sit 'em
Just imagine if Hill fell into the end zone! We'd be talking 14.3 points at the tight end position, a barren wasteland that seems to dry up worse than my mouth at night when I first turn the heat on in the fall (it's coming, fellow New Englanders). Seriously, though, if you don't have one of the top four or five tight ends, what are you thinking leaving this guy on your waiver wire right now?
Only two tight ends have averaged 11 PPR points per game through two weeks this season: the Vikings' T.J. Hockenson (18.5) and the Patriots' Hunter Henry (16.9). Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce, the undisputed top dogs of the TE position year in and year out, missed Week 1 but scored 15.5 and 12.6 PPR points in Week 2.
Beyond those fab four — and maybe the Eagles' Dallas Goedert, Jaguars' Evan Engram, and Steelers' Pat Freiermuth — it's hard to argue that any tight end has more upside this week than Hill. And the dude doesn't even need to haul in one target from Saints QB Derek Carr to make a positive impact for his team and produce a strong fantasy line for his owners.
WEEK 3 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Speaking of ownership, let's take a look at what portion of Yahoo fantasy managers have this guy on their team: 18 percent. WHAT!? Eighteen percent of people roster a guy who racked up 75 yards on nine carries last week!? His rostered rate only jumped up by nine percent this week. If he was a running back, people would have been lining up for him on waiver day.
Can the 82 percent of fantasy managers avoiding this guy even math!? We're talking about 8.3 yards per carry. We're talking about a dude who many analysts and pundits regularly refer to as "the best player in the NFL." We're talking about a potential week-winner, basically whenever he gets a chance.
Since his initial breakout in November 2020, Hill has averaged 6.6 yards per touch in games that he touches the ball seven times or more. And his golden number for productivity seems to be 11 — when he gets 11 or more touches, he does big things, both for Who Dat Nation and his managers in fantasy land.
WEEK 3 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
In Hill's seven career games in which he totaled 11-plus combined rushing attempts and catches, he averaged over 66 all-purpose yards (he also averaged over 153 passing yards per game and collected five total passing TDs across those seven games, but we're not even talking about that today). It's not even a debate: the man is a force of nature when New Orleans gives him the rock more than 10 times in a game.
We would be shocked if Hill somehow fails to reach 11 touches this weekend in Green Bay. Saints offensive coordinator has three options in the run game: an underwhelming Tony Jones Jr., an unproven and unpolished Kendre Miller, or a veteran Taysom Hill, who knows the Saints' playbook like Tim Tebow knows the New Testament.
While we expect some opportunities to go Jones and Miller's ways this weekend, we won't be surprised in the least if Hill receives the lion's share of the carries. He might also mix in a catch or two, and maybe even a short pass. And the touchdown upside obviously raises his ceiling in a major way.
The Packers defense took a big step back this offseason after trading away Aaron Rodgers. When legends leave, sometimes good defenders go, too. As a result, Green Bay has surrendered the seventh-most rushing yards and the second-most receiving yards to RBs. The Pack also ranks among the top 10 most generous defenses in terms of catches allowed to tight ends, and in the top 12 in receiving yards allowed to TEs.
But the most eye-popping stat? Matt LaFleur's squad has surrendered 45 points and 757 yards through two games. That's despite playing the Bears and Falcons, teams quarterbacked by Justin Fields and Desmond Ridder.
The sky's the limit for Hill if he's simply given the chance. And maybe — just maybe — the fantasy managers who give him a chance at tight end will come away with a sweet Week 3 victory.
