We’ve hit the part of the PGA Tour season where we see some pretty weak fields. This week's Rocket Mortgage Classic certainly qualifies under the ‘weak field’ distinction, which means we'll have to take some chances with our betting picks. The Detroit Golf Club, which is a classic Donald Ross design, is also at a new course that we haven’t seen before, further adding to our handicapping difficulty.
I already mentioned how weak the field is, but there will be a few top-end players taking the trip up to Detroit, as Dustin Johnson, Gary Woodland, Rickie Fowler, Brandt Snedeker, and Hideki Matsuyama are the headliners. This is a week where we aren’t going to be getting a discount on any of the top players in the betting markets, so frugal bettors will likely need to either pick one of the players at the very top and sprinkle the rest of their card with longshots or try and load up on some of the players in the 30/1-50/1 range whose odds are shorter than they typically are in events with stronger fields.
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Detroit Golf Club is a moderate length, 7,350-yard, Par-72 layout that features tree-lined fairways and plenty of holes that gently dogleg in both directions. It’s hard to tell what type of player that Detroit Golf Club will favor, but I see some similarities between DGC and courses like East Lake (Tour Championship), Chapultepec (WGC-Mexico), and Aronimink Golf Club. Total driving is likely to be crucial given both the length of the course and the tight nature of the fairways. If players are able to drive the ball well, then I believe that they will have a great chance to score well at DGC, as most of the green complexes appear to be fairly straightforward.
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Key Stats for Detroit Golf Club
Par 5 Scoring
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Birdie or Better Percentage
Poa Putting
Rocket Mortgage Classic betting advice
Outright Bets to Consider
*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Dustin Johnson 5.5/1
I hate betting on mega favorites, but this week I’m making an exception. Johnson is by far the class of this event, and I’m going to pull the trigger on him at 5.5/1 simply because I think he can blitz this field. DJ had a nice ball-striking week at the U.S. Open but struggled badly on the greens, and I think he’ll benefit from an easier layout with slower greens this week. Detroit Golf Club looks like a course that will place an emphasis on off-the-tee and Par-5 scoring, two things that Johnson does as well as anyone in the world. I’m going to take my chances with a big bet on DJ and then sprinkle the rest of my exposure on some long bombs with upside.
Joaquin Niemann 70/1
Niemann was off to such a great start to his PGA career last season, but until recently has been struggling for form in 2019. He has started to improve as the weather has started to heat up, and he capped off a great week at the Travelers Championship with a T5 finish -- his best of the season. This week, Niemann’s tee-to-green game sets up well for a driver-heavy course like Detroit Golf Club, and this seems like the perfect type of field where he could grab his first PGA Tour victory. I was hoping to get Niemann closer to 90/1, but I can stomach his 70/1 odds considering how weak the middle of this field is.
Luke List 90/1
I never bet List. I never play List in DFS. But all good things must come to an end, and I’ll finally be looking at List at 90/1 this week. List is a bomber who should feast on these Par 5s, and I’m praying that this is a week where his putter decides to show up. List is very much a boom-or-bust player, so I’m not particularly worried that he missed his past two cuts. His last two top-10 finishes this season came after a missed cut and a T65 finish.
Danny Lee 150/1
Lee is a player who I like to bet on in these types of weak-field events, as he has a “if you’re not first, you’re last” type of mentality. We only get paid in these outright bets if our bets win the whole tournament, so I could care less if he finishes T140 and misses the cut by eight shots if he isn’t winning. There isn’t a whole lot to like in the 150/1-and-over range this week, so we’re going to go with a player who has flashed winning upside a few times in his career.