The first game of the NFL season on Thursday night is always tricky for fantasy football mangers who want to make sure they get off to a good start — either by starting the right players or avoiding certain players.
Week 1 brings a marquee rematch of last season's AFC championship game between the Chiefs and Ravens (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC). Let's go through a start 'em and sit 'em breakdown of the 2024 season opener, including some DFS recommendations.
Start 'Em: Chiefs vs. Ravens must-plays
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens lost the AFC championship game at home 17-10, and Jackson still had 20-plus points in 6-point passing TD leagues. Although he's struggled passing in four previous regular-season meetings, the scoring and the rushing have led to solid days. Just don't expect him to light it up in the opener.
WEEK 1 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs: Mahomes had 241 passing yards and a TD in the playoffs against the Ravens with only 15 rushing yards. But he has a strong overall history in this matchup, and the Chiefs will want to get him going with his upgraded dynamic weapons at home.
Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens: Henry joins a rushing offense that led the league with 2,661 yards and 26 TDs, with Gus Edwards scoring half of those. Taking out Jackson and Tyler Huntley at QB, the Ravens' backs and receivers totaled 1,785 rushing yards. Henry is set up to see a welcome spike from his 1,167 yards and 11 TDs in his last Titans season. Kansas City is an average run defense, and expect Henry to get fed plenty to facilitate Jackson, complement the defense, and work to keep Mahomes off the field.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs: He has 33 catches for 435 yards in five regular-season games against the Ravens, but they have limited him to scoring only twice in that sample size. Kelce, who missed Week 1 vs. the Lions last season, should have his typical high-volume, big-yardage game with a chance to score this time without Patrick Queen covering him.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens: Andrews is looking to compensate for an injury-shortened season after finishing as QB2 in average scoring last season in 10 games, behind only Sam LaPorta and ahead of Kelce and George Kittle.
WEEK 1 NFL: Power rankings | ATS picks | SU picks
Justin Tucker, K, Baltimore Ravens: Tucker finished as K2 overall last season, second to Cowboys aging rookie sensation Brandon Aubrey. He has been a consistent scorer with volume, range, and accuracy so keep setting him and forgetting it.
Harrison Butker, K, Kansas City Chiefs: Butker matched his jersey number with his K7 finish last season, and although he can have a few more clunker weeks than Tucker, he should get off to a solid start.
Chiefs vs. Ravens likely-plays
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: Pacheco was pounded away for 28 touches against the Ravens in the playoffs. That's hard-to-beat volume, even though it added up to only 82 yards and a TD. The Chiefs won't be overloading him in the opener and have some new options behind him in Samaje Perine and rookie Carson Steele. For now, he's still a mid-RB2 outside of the top-15.
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens: Flowers is a borderline WR2/WR3 to start the season. This is a tough secondary matchup for him vs. Trent McDuffie and friends, but he did have five catches for 115 yards and a TD on targets, along with one game-costing fumble. Flowers likely won't hit the century mark again, but he can hit 80 yards and a fair chance for a score.
2024 NFL RANKINGS: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | Defense
Kansas City Chiefs defense/special teams: They are not a forced play by any means after finishing as a D/ST12 last season, but in deep leagues, they might be your best option after holding the Ravens down well (4 sacks, 3 takeaways) in the playoffs.
Thursday Night Football sleepers
Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: Marquise Brown won't get to have his Hollywood moment of revenge, missing his first game as a Chief with his injured shoulder. The team will lean on JuJu Smith-Schuster and Worthy more to support Kelce and Rashee Rice. The big slot matchup is tough vs. Kyle Hamilton, but the Chiefs will look to stretch the field for a big play with Mahomes looking for the first-round rookie Worthy. Take a (deep) shot on him as a WR3/FLEX play.
Thursday Night Football busts
Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: Rice played about half the time in the slot as a rookie. Kyle Hamilton will be a tough draw when he runs those routes in this game He's likely to be inside more than Smith-Schuster and Worthy. This won't be a smash passing effort by Mahomes, so he should trust the more favorable matchups.
Baltimore Ravens defense/special teams: The Chiefs had quite a few games where they gave up both multiple sacks and takeaways, but in general, they are a clean offense and should be better at both protecting Mahomes and the ball this season. If you draft the Ravens rather high, you might want to think about using a streamer in a higher-upside matchup.
Sit 'Em: Ravens at Chiefs fades
Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens: There's some buzz the first-rounder can be on track as a key receiving asset for Jackson, but take a wait-and-see approach after being far off the fantasy radar last season.
Samaje Perine, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: Perine was signed with Clyde Edwards-Helaire hurting for key depth, especially given his fine pass-catching and pass-protection skills. He will cut into the snaps and touches of Pacheco to keep the latter physical runner fresher for downhill work in the second half vs. any significant volume.
Nelson Agholor, WR, Baltimore Ravens: There's a chance he and Bateman can make a few plays, but their usage is mega inconsistent behind Andrews and Flowers, so no.
DraftKings mock Showdown lineup for Thursday night
- Captain (1.5x): Xavier Worthy, Chiefs ($8,700)
- FLEX: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs ($10,400)
- FLEX: Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens ($9,000)
- FLEX: Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs ($9,600)
- FLEX: Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens ($6,400)
- FLEX: Harrison Butker, K, Chiefs ($4,600)
FanDuel mock single-game lineup for Thursday night
- MVP: (1.5x): Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs ($17,500)
- AnyFLEX: Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens ($14,500)
- AnyFLEX: Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs ($8,500)
- AnyFLEX: Justin Tucker, K, Ravens ($9,000)
- AnyFLEX: Harrison Butker, K, Chiefs ($9,000)
