No week bows to #NarrativeStreet quite like NFL Week 17, when dissecting news right up until kickoff becomes even more essential for winning NFL DFS lineups. The drumbeat for player usage during the week will also shift how the DraftKings masses make picks for this featured slate. Anticipating ownership percentages is a key part of building lineups for daily fantasy football tournaments/GPPS.
I'll reference UFCollective projections while parsing this week's developments.
Week 17 Rankings:
Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Defense | Kicker
NFL Week 17 DFS Ownership: Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes ($7,100) and Ben Roethlisberger ($7,000) head the pack at UFCollective, hosting two of the 10 most-friendly defenses for quarterbacks in DraftKings scoring. Both are expected to air it out with major playoff implications at play.
Jared Goff ($6,200) has burned people enough over the past month to likely keep him low-owned. However, the Rams can clinch a bye at home, so motivation is locked in. The Rams enter Friday afternoon with the third-highest Vegas implied total of Week 17, and Goff saves nearly a grand versus the QBs of the two teams above LA's total.
WEEK 17 DFS CASH LINEUPS: Yahoo | FanDuel | DraftKingsNFL Week 17 DFS Ownership: Running Back
Royce Freeman ($3,500) emerges as the biggest chalk play for UFCollective since Phillip Lindsay's injury creates a rush to the anticipated free-square play in Week 17. ... Jamaal Williams ($6,000) hasn't seen that dramatic of a price bump after capitalizing on the featured role in Green Bay's backfield last week and could top 20-percent owned.
Saquon Barkley ($8,200) makes for an interesting contrarian stud, since the DKers will likely fade high prices on players with no playoff implications. We know the upside is there and the Giants still fed him nearly 30 combined carries-targets in a post-elimination game last week. Same for Christian McCaffrey ($9,100), though there seems to be more of a drumbeat for him resting Week 17.
WEEK 17 DFS GPP LINEUPS: Yahoo | FanDuel | DraftKingsNFL Week 17 DFS Ownership: Wide Receiver
Antonio Brown ($8,700) dunked on Marshon Lattimore last week and — if the knee tests come out clear — the DK masses should run him back in a much nicer matchup against the Bengals. ... Julian Edelman ($7,600) can challenge him for biggest chalk play at receiver since the Pats still have a bye within reach and the Jets allow the second-most DraftKings points to receivers. ... JuJu Smith-Schuster ($8,300) could rocket to the top of ownership if there's more uncertainty with Brown's knee.
With questions lurking over the state of Tampa's locker room, it's likely that Mike Evans ($6,800), Chris Godwin ($4,300), Adam Humphries ($5,400) and DeSean Jackson ($4,400) all get the fade. Since their quarterback and coach are playing for jobs — and this offense has demonstrated a high ceiling — slamming the right Buc could smash at low roster rate.
NFL Week 17 DFS Ownership: Tight End
Travis Kelce ($7,200) dropped 43 DK points at Oakland a few weeks ago and could lap the TE pack in ownership with the Raiders coming to KC. ... Zach Ertz ($6,700) likewise plays with clear playoff implications and could join Kelce in double-digit roster rate.
Jared Cook ($5,500) has been limited in practice this week by a rib issue. This could deflate his ownership despite a high-total matchup against a defense allowing the most DK points to tight ends. Though, any slate with Kelce and Ertz should also depress ownership for Cook.