Week 7 shapes up to be quite an interesting betting week, as five teams are favored by a touchdown or more and four teams are favored by a field goal or less.
Every week, I break down my favorite bets while weaving in a preview of exclusive data from BetQL, a web and app platform that simplifies the research process for sports bettors by equipping them with real-time line movements, value bets of the day, and meaningful team trends. So far, my recommendations have gone 11-6.
WEEK 7 PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Let’s take a look at three Week 7 bets you should consider making.
All data presented is as of Thursday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.
NFL Week 7 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the week
Seahawks (-3) at Cardinals
Per BetQL’s Sharp Picks Dashboard, 77 percent of total money wagered is backing Seattle to cover, and I love the bet. The Seahawks are 5-0 SU on the year but have also gone 4-1 ATS, which is a testament to how dominant they’ve been. Further, Seattle has gone 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games directly after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in two straight contests. Plus, the Seahawks have gone 17-5 ATS in their past 22 contests immediately following a home game in which both teams scored 24-plus points.
The “Let Russ Cook” movement is a real thing, not in terms of overall pass volume but situational pass volume. Per Danny O’Neil of ESPN710, on first-and-10, Wilson threw the ball 37.7 percent of the time in 2018. In '19, that increased to 51.8 percent. This year, it’s 59.5 percent. There’s no doubt that the Cardinals are on the rise, but give me Wilson and Seattle coming off a bye week, especially since they’re finally utilizing their superstar player the way they should have been for years.
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NFL Week 7 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the week
Bengals (+140) vs. Browns
Per BetQL’s Sharp Picks Dashboard, 80 percent of total money wagered is backing Cincinnati to win while just 40 percent of total public bets are, thus indicating that sharp bettors are favoring the Bengals.
While the Browns are 4-2 and the Bengals are 1-4-1, Cincinnati has lost a number of close games (16-13 in Week 1 against the Chargers on the road, 35-30 against the Browns in Cleveland in Week 2, and 31-27 to the Colts in Week 6). Most important, it looks like Joe Burrow is the real deal, as he’s eclipsed 300 yards passing in four of his six starts and managed 313 yards against Indy’s tough pass defense. The Browns rank 30th in scoring defense and allow 31.2 points per game, and they're still searching for an identity. At home, I really like Cincinnati here, as Baker Mayfield is seemingly a couple bad quarters away from losing his starting job permanently.
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NFL Week 7 Betting Picks: Over/under pick of the week
Falcons vs. Lions OVER 55
In Raheem Morris’ first game as the Falcons head coach, Atlanta earned their first victory of the season against the Vikings by the score of 40-23. In that game, they ran 77 offensive plays compared to 49 by Minnesota. The Falcons have run 70.7 offensive plays per game this season (third most) and will have Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley active for Matt Ryan to utilize through the air.
Meanwhile, Atlanta’s defense is still horrendous, allowing 30.7 points per game (28th), so a shootout here is very likely. Detroit’s offense is right in the middle of the pack as far as points per game at 26.6, so they’re not exactly a slouch on that side of the football.
Head over to BetQL to see our model’s best bet, sharp data and much more for this game and every Week 7 contest! You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL!