Every week, there are upsets that cause upheaval in NFL pick 'em pools. Surprises are going to happen, so you can't dwell too much on the past. You have to look forward and find a strategy that works over time. It might not yield the best results every week, but more than often than not, it will pay off. That's why every week, we solicit the help of TeamRankings to break down notable matchups that could sway pick 'em and confidence pools. Don't finalize your Week 5 picks without getting pick 'em-specific takes on Chiefs-Bills, Browns-Chargers, Bengals-Packers, and more.
Finding Week 5 picks that are being underrated by the public can yield weekly gains that make the difference between winning and losing a season-long NFL pool, while smart upset picks can drive success in weekly pools.
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Week 5 NFL Pick 'em Pool Picks: Tips, strategy
How We Identify NFL Week 5 Value Picks
This article is written on Wednesday, but if the win odds and pick popularity numbers hold, the teams below all provide compelling risk-vs.-reward gambits to differentiate your Week 5 picks from your pool opponents.
It's important to note that we're not necessarily saying you should make all of these picks. In particular, some upset picks may be unnecessarily risky for your pool, even if they are technically undervalued. If you want our game-by-game pick recommendations for all of your specific pools, use our Football Pick 'em Picks product.
Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Buffalo)
Point Spread: -2.5
Pick Popularity: 56%
Category: Value Favorite
It's rare that you get to take the Chiefs as a value play, but you have that opportunity in Week 5. The Bills have dominated recently with two shutouts in their past three games, but they are also taking a major step up in class in opposing quarterbacks, as they have mostly played against backups for the past three games.
The Chiefs' defense has been an issue, and we'll wait to see if they get healthy this week, particularly with a thin secondary, but they still have Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce. The public is more evenly split on this one despite the Chiefs playing at home.
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New England Patriots at Houston Texans
Point Spread: -9.0
Pick Popularity: 89%
Category: Reasonably Priced Large Favorite
The public is picking six other favorites more frequently than the Patriots right now in game-winner pools. However, New England is the second-largest favorite of the week behind only Tampa Bay. It's therefore advisable to use the Patriots as a high-confidence pick and stay with them in all game-winner formats. Other entries are just as willing to pick an upset here as they are on more even matchups.
Keep an eye on the news for this one, as two Patriots starting offensive linemen have been placed on the COVID-19 reserve list.
MORE TEAMRANKINGS: Week 5 NFL survivor pool advice
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers
Point Spread: +1.5
Pick Popularity: 34%
Category: Unpopular Toss-Up
The Chargers just looked good in prime time against the Raiders, and they're drawing the better of the popularity numbers right now against the Browns in what looks like a pretty even matchup.
The Browns might have a legitimately great pass defense. They're tied for sixth in pass yards per attempt allowed (6.0), but while some of the teams in front of them have feasted exclusively on bad quarterbacks, the Browns have already faced Kansas City and Minnesota.
If you're in a weekly contest, taking the Browns here gives you a coin-flip situation where two-thirds of the pool will be on the other side.
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New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons (in London)
Point Spread: +3.0
Pick Popularity: 16%
Category: Value Gamble in Weekly Contest
After struggling against stout pass defenses in the first three weeks, Jets rookie QB Zach Wilson got a reprieve last Sunday against the Titans. He responded with 297 passing yards and 8.7 yards per attempt in the Jets' upset win in overtime.
This matchup is similar in terms of opponent defensive quality, and the public is still down on the Jets. That makes them worth consideration in weekly contests as a high-value upset play. Also, keep in mind this is a neutral site game.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Green Bay Packers
Point Spread: +3.0
Pick Popularity: 16%
Category: Value Gamble in Weekly Contest
Green Bay and Cincinnati are both 3-1, and the public is heavily backing the favored Packers here. However, the odds are close enough that it makes sense to go with the Bengals in a weekly contest as an upset play.
Much like the Jets, you're getting a team with low expectations but decent win odds at a good value. Only about one in six entries are picking them right now.
Get All Our Week 5 NFL Picks
Football Pick 'em Picks from TeamRankings is the only product that gives you the picks, tools, and analysis you need to maximize your edge in NFL pick 'em pools. It uses algorithms to identify the calculated risks that give you the best chance to win your straight-up, point spread, or confidence pool.
From a strategy perspective, game theory is a foundational aspect of winning pick 'em pools. In short, to win a pick 'em pool, you have to score points that your opponents miss. That means you need to identify unpopular picks that are worth a calculated gamble and avoid trendy upset picks not worth the risk. Our product does all that number crunching for you, 71 percent of our subscribers report winning a prize in football picks contests.
If you want to learn more about football pick 'em pool strategy, you can also check out our free articles about strategy for winning football pick 'em pools.
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Good luck in your pools this week!