There’s been a ton of talk about the most recent rookie class in the NFL and fantasy football these past few months -- and for good reason given their performances. While baseball's crop of rookies has taken a few years to develop in the minor leagues, it's as stacked as ever, and plenty of MLB's top prospects could actually make a difference for your fantasy baseball team this season. We’ll break down the top-20 rookies to target in your redraft and keeper/dynasty leagues in a bit, but first, let’s delve into a bit of strategy when it comes to rookie sleepers and what they’ve been capable of over the past few years.
Let’s just start with the 2021 class, which showed off impressive speed with four guys stealing 16 or more bases and 11 stealing 10 or more. Of the 69 qualified rookies, eight hit better than .280 and 14 hit better than .270. Of that same 69 players, eight hit 20 or more homers and 14 hit 15 or more HRs. If we flash back to '19, 12 guys stole 10 or more bags, 11 hit better than .280, 17 topped .270, and a whopping 34 of 66 topped 10 homers.
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The pitching side of things has been just as fruitful over the past few years. Some rookie starters, including Walker Buehler, Mike Soroka, Dakota Hudson, and Trevor Rogers, have even been in the “league winner” discussion. Previously, drafting rookies wasn’t exactly advised, mainly because the majority weren't good values in drafts compared to production levels of veterans going in similar spots. However, that has since changed. Picking the best rookies at the right time can benefit you and perhaps propel you to a league win. Again, that’s if it’s done right.
The guys mentioned below are all capable of having immediate impacts, but they generally still have a lot to prove in the highest level of the sport. That means we’re still not going to be reaching for the guys getting all the buzz in spring training or the top prospects you think are can’t-miss guys. The art -- and yes, it’s an art -- to winning at fantasy baseball involves knowing when to take a player and when to let them slide coolly by.
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Rookies are part of that equation, and in general, you’ll want to focus on the players who are slated to get the most guaranteed playing time. We saw last year that the rookies that came into muddled situations stayed in them much of the year. Take Andrew Vaughn. Everyone was high on him coming into the season, but he simply couldn’t get the full-time DH role for the White Sox, which ultimately capped his upside.
The other thing to pay attention to is not only spring training performances, but also if service time will play a role in the decision on when to bring players up, as we saw with some teams doing last year like the Royals with Bobby Witt Jr. The final rule of thumb to abide by with rookies is to realize that talent will almost always overrule roster openings. In other words, even if it seems like the major league roster is crowded, a talented prospect will still get a shot, though that shot might still come with limited at-bats.
With that, let’s dive into who the best rookies for this year are heading into the season.
2022 FANTASY BASEBALL RANKINGS:
Catcher | First | Second | Third | Short | Outfield | Starter | Closer | Overall
MLB Top Prospects 2022: Potential fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts
Bobby Witt Jr., SS/3B, KC. This can’t be a surprise, right? The guy that everyone wanted to break camp with the team last year and then proceeded to have a remarkable 2021 campaign between Double-A and Triple-A has to be the top rookie. Over 123 games split evenly between the two levels, Witt slashed .290/.361/.575 with 33 homers, 99 runs, 97 RBIs, and 29 steals. He’s expected to break camp with the team this year and most likely play third base. While Witt is a natural shortstop, the Royals having Adalberto Mondesi and Nicky Lopez kind of blocks that spot, but Witt has played third in the minors. He's a former second-overall pick and seriously has tools to be the favorite for Rookie of the Year.
Shane Baz, RHP, TB. Baz came up and had a three-start stint for the Rays toward the end of last year. It was great but short lived. He pitched at three levels in 2021, with stops in Double-A, Triple-A, and MLB totaling 92 innings while posting ERAs at 2.48 or below at each stop. While the FIP did get up over 4.00 in the majors, it’s hard to take that with anything but a grain of salt, as he pitched just 13 innings in three starts. The Rays need pitching depth in the rotation with Yonny Chirinos, Tyler Glasnow, and Brendan McKay all expected to miss a big chunk of the 2022 season, which should open a good number of innings for Baz. The young righty put up fantastic strikeout and walk rates last year as he rounded into form with a combined 12.8 K/9, 37.8-percent K-rate, 1.56 BB/9, and 4.59 BB-rate. The double-plus fastball-slider combo is enough to make him a threat to major league hitters, but the other two pitches in his arsenal are what make him a front-line starter prospect. The only risk here is he’s likely to be limited to 120-130 innings.
Spencer Torkelson, 1B, DET. The top pick in 2020 made some serious noise with his bat in his first season of pro ball in '21, jumping three levels. In the 121 games last year, he slashed .267/.383/.552 with 30 homers, 91 RBIs, 89 runs, and five SBs, though the steals won’t stay as he moves up the majors given his 30-grade speed. Tigers' manager A.J. Hinch has already been very clear that Torkelson is viewed as Detroit's first baseman of the future, and that future might be starting sooner than later, especially with the investments the Tigers have made in free agency. You should pencil Torkelson in as a starter on opening day with his patient approach at the plate, keen eye for the zone, and double-plus raw power all making him a very intriguing option in the middle of a not terribly great position for fantasy.
Adley Rutschman, C, BAL. A catcher this high on the list? When you’re a catcher with the skills of Rutschman, then yes. The top pick in the 2019 draft is looking more and more like the generational catcher everyone pegged him as, and in 123 games between Double-A and Triple-A last year, not only did he show off the bat skills but he also played elite defense. He slashed a combined .285/.396/.502 with 23 homers, 86 runs, 75 RBIs, and three steals for good measure. For a 162-game pace, that’s a 30-100-100 season he produced last year. The Orioles clearly aren’t going to compete again this year, but it’s time for the future -- and potentially current -- face of the franchise to come to the majors and start getting a feel for the game at the highest level.
Seiya Suzuki, OF, CHC. The newest Japanese import is on the way this year after Suzuki was posted by his Nippon Professional Baseball team in November. He’s coming off his fifth All-Star season and fifth Gold Glove in the NPB while hitting .317/.433/.636 with 38 homers and nine steals in his age-26 season. While the 38 homers are a career high since the start of 2016, he’s topped 25 homers a year with all but one year posting 88 or more RBIs. Suzuki has also had a .300 or better average in that same span. While those are all great stats, they won’t directly translate to the majors right away, as the variety of pitches will take him some time to get used to. He’s viewed as a perennial 20-plus home run hitter while hitting for a high average, likely in the top half of a batting order.
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Triston Casas, 1B, BOS. The "Bobby Dalbec truthers" aren’t going to like this, but Casas is the clear future at first base -- and that future could be coming as soon as mid-May. Casas was very good at Double-A Portland over 77 games with a .284/.395/.484 slash line 13 homers, 57 runs, 52 RBIs, and six steals. He would have played more than nine games at Triple-A but instead played for Team USA in the Olympics last summer. He did play in the Arizona Fall League and led the league with a .497 OBP. Yes, Dalbec has pop, but the problem is that he's too much of a swing-and-miss hitter, shown by his 35.7-percent K-rate in the majors. He’s also committed too many errors at first. Casas should supplant him to strengthen the Red Sox infield.
Cade Cavalli, RHP, WAS. Cavalli has been the prospect that’s been most talked about in the Nationals’ system since they drafted him, and there’s good reason for that as he’s a front-line type of arm. He never pitched in pro ball in 2020 due to the pandemic, and in '21 he went 123 innings across three levels, including 24.2 at Triple-A. His overall stat line was very good and included a 3.36 ERA (2.87 FIP 3.52 xFIP) with a 12.77 K/9 and 34.2-percent K-rate. That being said, his numbers did get worse as he jumped up levels, especially at Triple-A (8.7 K/9 and 4.74 BB/9) because he started to nibble in the zone instead of going right after hitters. The four-pitch mix he uses is more than enough to strike out major league hitters at a high rate; it’s just a matter of him showing more control. We should see him hit around 150 innings total given his 123 innings last year.
Hunter Greene, RHP, CIN. It had been three years since we saw Greene on a mound after going through Tommy John in 2019 and then COVID in '20, but it was quite the return last year, as he posted a 3.30 ERA (3.65 FIP, 3.57 xFIP) in 106 innings between Double-A and Triple-A (with 65.1 coming at the higher level). While the ERA jumped and the K-rate dropped, the ERA can be explained by giving up 11 homers in those 65 innings. Plus, his K-rate of nearly 29-percent is still elite. He brings triple-digit fastball speeds and big-time movement on his breaking balls, both of which remain late in starts. His command also remained good for a guy with his stuff, sticking between 3.07 and 3.44 BB/9 last year. The Reds have turnover in their rotation and could still deal Luis Castillo, which should mean Greene arrives in Cincinnati in mid-May.
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Brennen Davis, OF, CHC. It’s been a while since we’ve talked highly about a Cubs’ prospect or rookie. Really, it’s been since the class that won them the World Series. Davis is changing all that. The former second-round pick out of the prep ranks reached Triple-A at age 21 last year and played at the three highest levels in the Chicago system. Over 96 games, Davis slashed a .268/.379/.510 line with 19 homers, 66 runs, 53 RBIs, and eight steals with the bulk (76 games) coming at Double-A. He's in line to be a starting centerfielder for the Cubs with 60-grade power,55-grade speed, and a slightly below-average hit tool. There will be a lot of roster turnover for the Cubs this year, and Davis will be a part of that come early June.
Bryson Stott, SS, PHI. The Phillies have a need at short, as Didi Gregorius is clearly no longer cutting it there offensively. The good news for the Phillies is that they have Stott, a former first-round pick, to take that spot early in the season. Stott played 112 games last year across three levels and made it to Triple-A while putting up a .299/.391/.486 slash line with 16 home runs, 71 runs, 49 RBIs, and 10 steals. The 24-year-old infielder possesses an above-average hit tool with average pop and speed and slightly above-average fielding ability. If the Phillies hope to turn around their results from last year, an infusion of young talent like Stott is a good way to help that.
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Joe Barlow, RHP, TEX. Barlow came a bit out of nowhere last year to claim the closer role after Ian Kennedy was dealt. He pitched 50 total innings between Triple-A and the majors with a combined 18 saves, 11 of which were for Texas, 1.98 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 0.80 WHIP, 29.5-percent K-rate, and 10.5-percent BB-rate -- not to mention a 12.2-inning scoreless streak from July to early August. The high-leverage numbers are even better for him in terms of SLG, OBP, wOBA, and BAA, which is what you want from a closer. There is no one on the roster coming to take his job, and with the Rangers focused on spending in the rotation and offense, Barlow comes in as a cheap closing option for a team that should be in a lot of close games.
Luis Gil, RHP, NYY. What is it that everyone knows the Yankees need -- again -- for like the fifth year in a row? Pitching. They do have depth in the system, but so far, the player who has consistently performed well at the higher levels and in the majors is Gil. The 23-year-old righty came up last year for a nearly 30-inning stint across six starts in the Bronx and pitched to a 3.07 ERA, though a 4.40 FIP and 4.55 SIERA, and missed bats well. Gil posted an 11.66 K/9, striking out 29.5-percent of the batters he faced (129), but the issue that plagued him was the 5.83 BB/9 rate. Any hint of improved control at Triple-A, where he likely starts 2022, will also get him to the Bronx for a team with a high-powered offense and a good shot at getting wins.
Nolan Gorman, 2B, STL. Originally drafted to be the next third baseman for the Cardinals, that plan has clearly changed now with Nolan Arenado manning the hot corner for the next several years. St. Louis moved Gorman to second base this past year, and while he’s still a work in progress, it wasn’t all that bad overall on defense. Offensively, though, that’s what’s going to get him to the majors quickly, as he has some of the best raw power in all of the minor leagues. That really started to show in 2021, even with the position change. He slashed .279/.333/.481 with 25 homers, 75 RBIs, 71 runs, and seven steals in 119 games, 76 of which were at Triple-A Memphis. There’s some flexibility in the middle infield and outfield for the Cardinals this year, and Gorman should play his way into that mix sooner rather than later.
Josh Jung, 3B, TEX. We're still rating Jung highly even after shoulder surgery to repair a torn left labrum. Jung has been the premier bat in the Rangers’ system since he was drafted seven picks after Rutschman. He showed off just how good of a bat he possesses in just half a season last year before a foot injury derailed his season. In 78 games between Double-A and Triple-A, Jung slashed .326/.398/.592 with 19 homers, 61 RBIs, 54 runs, and two steals while playing stellar defense at the hot corner. The Rangers have made a major investment in their offense this offseason with Corey Seager and Marcus Semien now in the middle infield, and it’s time to get Jung up as quickly as possible -- likely not until August or September this year -- to complete their infield of major power bats. He's a prime target for dynasty leaguers.
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Joey Bart, C, SF. Are you surprised to see Bart on this list again? Well, he’s still a rookie, as he didn’t get enough at-bats or days on the roster in 2020 to lose his rookie standing and played just two games in the majors in '21. While he was down on the farm in Triple-A, he put together a good season behind the dish with a .294/.358/.472 slash line, 10 homers, 46 RBIs, and 37 runs in 67 games. The strikeout rate is a bit higher than we want to see, but the at-bats should be there in 2022 for him to keep learning the craft at the highest level due to the retirement of Buster Posey. The numbers don’t jump off the page, but for a catcher, there are few that have the open at-bats available to them and the pedigree to be an impact bat. One last point is that this is arguably a prove-it year for Bart given that the Giants used their '20 first-round pick on a catcher (Patrick Bailey).
Sammy Long, RHP, SF. Two Giants in this write-up a year after winning a league-best 107 games? Well, they did lose some pieces from a team that overachieved, and a few of those pieces were in the rotation. Long pitched at three levels last year, including 12 appearances (five starts) for the Giants. He posted a 3.95 combined ERA, 3.50 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 9.99 K/9, 27.2 K-rate, 3.07 BB/9, and 8.27 BB-rate. While the ERA in the majors wasn’t spectacular at 5.53, he was better as a starter at 4.43 (3.95 FIP) in just over half the innings he spent in San Francisco. The K/9 rate was far better, too, at 9.27 compared to 7.36 as a reliever. He has the stuff to be a solid No. 4 starter in the big leagues, and the Giants need some back-of-the-rotation help in 2022.
Nick Pratto, 1B, KC. Witt Jr. wasn’t the only guy lighting up the stat lines for the Royals’ Triple-A Omaha squad, as Pratto had his best season as a pro in 2021. After scuffling a bit offensively but continuing to progress through the system, he played between Double-A and Triple-A nearly evenly. Over the 124 games (63 at Triple-A), Pratto slashed .265/.386/.602 with a .988 OPS, 36 home runs (21 in Omaha), 98 runs, 98 RBIs, and 12 steals. Don’t expect the steals to continue when he gets to Kansas City given his 40-grade speed, but the power is real, as is his ability to hit in the .260-.270 range with a just below-average hit tool. The Royals have Hunter Dozier slated to play first, but he or Pratto could DH while still having room for Witt Jr., Adalberto Mondesi, Whit Merrifield, and Nicky Lopez as starters.
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Riley Greene, OF, DET. The Tigers have gotten a lot of attention the past year or two for their trio of young pitchers, but now it’s time for their young bats to start making a difference. Torkelson was already mentioned, but Greene could be up a third of the way through the year, too. He played 124 games across Double and Triple-A last year, slashing .301/.387/.534 with 24 homers, 95 runs, 84 RBIs, and 16 steals, which was good for a .398 wOBA and .921 OPS. While the K-rate of 27.4-percent wasn’t great, the walk rate of 11.3-percent was. The power-speed combo for the 21-year-old outfielder is real, as he grades out with plus-power and average-speed. He’ll start in Triple-A this year, but by June he should get promoted with the Tigers moving one of the current outfielders to DH.
Matthew Liberatore, LHP, STL. The second Cardinal in the piece, the young lefty really started to hit his stride in 2021 after originally being drafted by Tampa in '18. St. Louis elected to have him pitch the whole year at Triple-A Memphis in '2. All told, he made 22 appearances, 18 starts, and threw 124.2 innings. The southpaw struck out nearly a hitter an inning while posting a 2.38 BB/9. His K:BB percentage was a very good 17.3, and there’s room to improve the strikeout numbers, as well. The Cardinals could use some starting pitching depth midway into the season, and if Liberatore looks sharp, he could be just the help they’re looking for, and we all know how well Cardinals' pitchers do when they come up.
Oneil Cruz, SS, PIT. There’s not much to talk about with the Pirates right now, but Cruz is just too big to ignore -- literally. He’s 6-7 and trying to play shortstop, which won’t last long. The Pirates have some depth in the middle infield and will likely move Cruz to the outfield, right field specifically, as he profiles better there with a strong arm and a ton of pop. He had 18 homers in 70 games across three levels last year, including two games in Pittsburgh, with 63 runs and 50 RBIs. Pittsburgh is in the middle of a massive overhaul of the roster, so at-bats will be available for Cruz wherever they play him, and the power is, like his height, just too much to ignore.
Julio Rodríguez, OF, SEA. The Mariners were the talk of the preseason last year both for good and bad reasons, and Rodriguez fits a bit into both categories. Rodriguez put all that behind him and played spectacularly in 2021 between High-A and Double-A with a .347/.441/.560 slash line, 13 homers, 34 total extra base hits, 64 runs, 47 RBIs, and 21 steals in 74 games at age 20. He also played for the Dominican Republic in the Olympics, which shortened his year a bit. He'll start in Triple-A but should be up in Seattle once June hits, so the dynamic duo of he and Jared Kelenic should be able to really show what the next several seasons will look like in Seattle.
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Camilo Doval, RHP, SF. A second closer on this list? Have I lost my mind? Not really, no. Perusing the Twitterverse we all see that closer and their high ADPs have been the talk of early draft season, so they’re clearly in demand. Doval is coming into the year as the expected closer for the Giants after getting three saves and five wins out of the 'pen last year and putting up tasty strikeout numbers (37 Ks in 29 innings), but the reason he’s further behind Barlow is because there is more competition for the job in San Francisco. Jake McGee alone is enough competition, but if Tyler Rogers comes back, that’s 44 saves combined waiting to pounce on any struggles Doval has. The saves and strikeouts can be tantalizing but there’s risk here.
Edward Cabrera, RHP, MIA. Cabrera got a taste of the majors toward the end of last year with a 26.1-inning stint that didn’t exactly go well. He posted a 5.81 ERA, 8.17 xERA, and 6.63 FIP, as he was really hurt by walks and home runs. Cabrera posted a 6.49 BB/9 and 2.05 HR/9 rates, and it didn’t really matter if he was at home or away. He gave up the same number of walks and homers in nearly the same innings at home and away. He is one of the talented arms coming up for the Marlins as they have basically an entire rotation in Double-A and above. If Cabrera wants to stick in the majors long-term, he'll have to harness what’s worked for him in ERA, K-rate, BB-rate, and HR-rate in the upper minors where all of those numbers showed him as a No. 2 starter in the future.
Alek Thomas, OF, ARI. It was a rough 2021 season for the Diamondbacks, as nothing really went their way except for the emergence of Pavin Smith. This might be time for the Diamondbacks to call up another young bat to continue to bolster their rebuild. Thomas reached Triple-A for the first-time last year, playing 34 games at Reno, and all told he combined for a .313/.394/.559 slash line in 106 games with 18 home runs, 86 runs, 59 RBIs, and 13 steals. He brings a plus hit tool, plus speed, and average pop while playing good outfield defense. It was a mishmash unit in the outfield most of last year for the D-backs, and they could stand to give some at-bats to one of their upcoming outfield prospects. Thomas just so happens to be the closest to the majors of the group that includes Corbin Carroll and Kristian Robinson, so he should get the first crack.