With just one game set to start before 7:05 p.m. ET and all 30 MLB teams in action, we are primed for a massive 14-game main slate on Friday on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
RotoBaller has all your fantasy baseball and DFS needs! Check our probable pitchers page to see all of today’s starters, and be sure to utilize our MLB DFS Optimizer to create unique lineups for tonight’s slate!
When we're looking for pitchers, we want to target guys who can limit runs and pitch deep enough into games to pick up wins. That said, we don’t always need to target pitchers on heavily favored teams. In fact, we want strikeouts more than anything whenever possible, as the scoring system on both FanDuel and DraftKings really rewards pitchers who rack up Ks.
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Best starting pitchers, sleeper SPs for Friday's MLB DFS contests
By Dan Palyo
Zack Wheeler, Phillies @ Pirates ($9,800 DK, $10,600 FD)
With so many teams in action we are bound to get a pretty decent number of aces on this slate, and sure enough, we do. I’m going to skip over a few big-name pitchers in tougher spots and start my player pool with Wheeler against my beloved Pirates.
Going after Pittsburgh with Shohei Ohtani didn’t work out last week, but it has been a formula for success more often than not lately. Pittsburgh is averaging just barely over four runs per game in the past month and their wRC+ of just 87 against RHPs is the fourth worst in the majors during that span.
The Pirates are striking out plenty, too, with a 26-percent strikeout percentage against RHPs over the past month. That’s ideal for Wheeler, who has six or more strikeouts now in five straight starts. Simply stated, this is a workhorse power pitcher in great form going up against a subpar lineup in a good pitchers’ park. Sign me up!
Max Scherzer, Mets vs. Nationals ($9,400 DK, $10,800 FD)
Scherzer is mainly in contention for me on DraftKings, where his price is extremely palatable. He’s actually more expensive on FanDuel, so I will pass on any Scherzer shares there.
Scherzer has a favorable matchup here, at least in terms of run prevention, as the Nats have a below-average offense and very little power from the left side of the plate (other than Jeimer Candelario) to cause us any concern.
The problem with targeting Washington with pitchers often comes down to a lack of strikeouts. The Nats do a good job of making contact and they actually have the third-best strikeout percentage against RHPs over the past month. It’s been a trend all season, too. There’s some safety here for cash game contests, but not a ton of upside. If he ends up being a chalky play by this evening, I may even consider reducing my shares a bit.
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Sonny Gray, Twins @ Royals ($9,300 DK, $10,100 FD)
Gray is having a really good year by just about any statistical measure. He hasn't been quite as good lately as he was for the first few months of the season, but he was bound to regress a little after such a hot start. The strikeouts have especially come back to Earth, as he only struck more than five hitters once in the past two months.
So, why pay all this money for a guy who lacks strikeout upside? It really comes down to the matchup. Gray faces the Royals, who rank just behind Pittsburgh in wRC+ vs. RHPs over the past month, and they strike out a good bit more than the average team does against righties, too, at 24.3 percent.
Gray hasn’t faced them since April, but in two April starts, he allowed just one earned run over 11 innings while striking out eight. Walks can be an issue for Sonny and it’s part of the reason we rarely see him pitch into the seventh inning, but the Royals five-percent BB percentage is dead last in baseball over the last month, too. This is a spot where Sonny can shine!
MacKenzie Gore, Nationals @ Mets ($7,300 DK, $8,900 FD)
This is the sneakiest play on the entire slate, and I'm really excited to use Gore in DFS contests tonight with hopefully some low ownership (maybe I should have kept this play to myself).
Gore is a supremely talented young pitcher who has looked unhittable at times this season. The only bad news is that every so often, he just doesn’t have his best stuff. Either he struggles to locate his fastball and it gets hit hard, or he doesn’t have his good curveball going and fails to get the whiffs he needs.
So, using him in DFS is usually a high-risk, high-reward play that is best suited for tournaments. However, tonight I think he could help you win a tournament in this spot.
First, let’s establish that Gore seems to be in good form, as he’s coming off an eight-strikeout performance against the Giants in which he shut them out over five frames.
Now, let’s talk about the Mets. You might not realize it, but their offense has been flat-out awful for much of the summer. Over the past 30 days, this team is scoring fewer runs than the Pirates! They have been particularly bad against LHPs, striking out 25 percent of the time while compiling a 75 wRC+ (28th).
Gore has excelled in this matchup this year, too! He ripped off 10 strikeouts over six innings while allowing just one earned run against the Mets back in April. Then he pitched another four scoreless innings (though he labored through 96 pitches to do it) against them in May.
At his price point, he’s a great GPP play with upside. You simply don’t get a chance to roster pitchers with a 28-percent strikeout rate for this cheap in a good matchup all that often!
Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles vs. Yankees ($6,300 DK, $7,700 FD)
Let’s finish things off with a cheap option, but one who is even more volatile than Gore. Rodriguez just might be the most talented rookie pitcher in an absolutely loaded class of rookies that have taken the hill this season.
His surface stats have not reflected that yet, but I'm a big believer in his raw stuff. After struggling badly in May, he was shipped back to Triple-A in June. He dominated while in the minors, fine-tuning some mechanics and getting his confidence back.
Since being called back up, he made two starts with mixed results. He battled an elite Dodgers lineup for five innings and finished with four strikeouts and four earned runs allowed on seven hits. Then he went into Tampa and pitched really well, striking out six Rays and allowing just two runs on three hits.
He’ll face the Yankees at home today, and even though Aaron Judge is coming back, that offense has not been particularly scary. Rodriguez has the most strikeout upside of any cheap pitcher on the mound today, and I think he’s well worth some GPP shots in larger-field contests.
Honorable Mentions: Kevin Gausman vs. Angels, Lucas Giolito vs. Blue Jays, Bobby Miller vs. Reds, Kutter Crawford vs. Giants
