The dog days of August are upon us. We have teams heading in vastly different directions at this point of the season, with some poised for the postseason and others calling up youngsters to see what their prospects can do. We have to continue to evolve our approach in MLB DFS as we get new players in the mix and keep up with recent team trends, as well. I know I am geared up for this 13-game main slate on both FanDuel and DraftKings tonight at 7:05 p.m. ET.
RotoBaller has all your fantasy baseball and DFS needs! Check our probable pitchers page to see all of today’s starters, and be sure to utilize our MLB DFS Optimizer to create unique lineups for tonight’s slate!
When we're looking for pitchers, we want to target guys who can limit runs and pitch deep enough into games to pick up wins. That said, we don’t always need to target pitchers on heavily favored teams. In fact, we want strikeouts more than anything whenever possible, as the scoring system on both FanDuel and DraftKings really rewards pitchers who rack up Ks. Let’s see who cracks the top five on my list this week!
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Best starting pitchers, sleeper SPs for Friday's MLB DFS contests
By Dan Palyo
Justin Verlander, Astros vs. L.A. Angels ($9.400 DK, $10,500 FD)
Yes, that’s right - I am skipping the first five highest-priced pitchers on DraftKings today. Each of them for their own reasons, but I’d rather tell you why I like the veteran workhorse Verlander here against the Angels instead.
Verlander appears to be rounding into form at just the right time for Houston. He struck out just four Yankees and took a loss in his last start, but he continued his streak of allowing three earned runs or fewer, which now stands at eight.
JV faces an Angels team that sits at .500 exactly and is trying to claw its way into the playoffs. They had lost seven straight until winning the past two games against the Giants in their most recent series. Their offense finally came alive a bit in that series, but they also had a few easier matchups and bullpen games to do it.
The Angels have not been a prolific offense without Mike Trout, and the additions of C.J. Cron and Randall Grichuk have not improved things much. They are, however, striking out at a 27.5-percent clip against righties over the past month, so I think there is some nice strikeout upside here for Verlander and hopefully some run support from his offense that matches up well against Reid Detmers.
Lance Lynn, Dodgers vs. Rockies ($8,900 DK, $9,900 FD)
Lynn very well could be the chalk pitcher on both sites, but I think it’s chalk I want to eat. Yes, Lynn still has an ERA of 6.11 and has allowed four home runs (all solo shots) in his two starts with the Dodgers, but he also has piled up 13 strikeouts in 13 innings and two wins in those starts, as well.
Lynn has by far the best matchup on the board for any RHP tonight, as he faces a Colorado team that ranks last in wRC+ (73) against righties over the past month. The Rockies are also striking out at a 27.7-percent clip over that span, too.
Lynn can give up all the solo home runs he wants as long as he continues to be aggressive and go after hitters for strikeouts. He’s backed by a great offense and is a massive favorite today. He’s just way too cheap on DraftKings for his strikeout projection and win potential. Deploy him in cash games and fade him in GPPs at your own risk!
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Johan Oviedo, Pirates vs. Reds ($7,000 DK, $9,300 FD)
We come to our first of two pitchers who are massively underpriced on DraftKings and possibly a bit overpriced on FanDuel. That doesn’t mean you can’t use them on FanDuel -- they make for good tournament plays that will surely be lightly rostered, but they make for fantastic plays at SP2 on DK.
Oviedo has had an uneven campaign for the Pirates this year. He started off hot in April and May, but he labored through June and part of July, seeing his ERA climb as high as 4.77 before dropping significantly over the past month.
He’s been lights out in four of his past five starts going back to July 15 when he struck out 10 Giants. If you look past the poor start in L.A. against the Angels, he’s now put together four starts in which he has allowed just one run or fewer.
The walks still concern me a bit, but he has raised his ground-ball rate and upped the strikeouts lately. Cincinnati comes into today pretty cold, sporting the third-worst wRC+ (81) against RHPs and a lofty 29.1-percent strikeout percentage. I think there is some potential for Oviedo to post a big number tonight, and I love that he gets Cincy at home in the spacious PNC park, too.
Kyle Gibson, Orioles @ Mariners ($7,700 DK, $9,600 FD)
Gibson is another pitcher who seems to have figured something out lately. We see pitchers change things all the time throughout the course of the season, whether it be little tweaks to their mechanics or the decision to throw certain pitches more or less often.
Gibson is an experienced veteran who doesn’t throw too hard anymore, but who can throw four or five pitches and command all of them. We don’t think of him as a strikeout pitcher, but this is a guy with multiple big strikeout performances this season (nine vs. NYM, 11 vs. MIN, 11 vs. DET). His past four starts have come against good competition (Tampa, Philly, Toronto, and NYM), yet he’s reeled off four quality starts in a row.
The Mariners are a bit like the Twins this year in that they have a huge strikeout rate but also the ability to put up runs in bunches. They are whiffing 27.4 percent of the time against righties over the past month but have also been a top-seven offense against them in terms of run creation at the same time.
Gibson didn’t fare well against them back in June, allowing five runs on three walks and five hits, but I am counting on him here to make the necessary adjustments this time around. His recent form suggests that he is pitching at the highest level that he has all season.
Tarik Skubal, Tigers @ Red Sox ($7,500 DK, $8,800 FD)
I think Skubal is priced just about right on both sites given that has pitched incredibly well in four starts and pretty poorly in two others.
That has been pretty typical for Skubal in his young career. He teases us with some major strikeout upside and some dominant outings, but he can also be run early as he’s prone to blow-ups.
Boston is not usually a team that we target with pitchers, so I think this could have the potential for a sneaky play tonight. I look at the last 30-day samples quite a bit when we get to this time of year, and Boston has the fourth-worst wRC+ against lefties (65) in that span while striking out the fourth most (27.6 percent) at the same time.
Most of Boston’s best hitters are lefties, so they often are forced to either roll with a lefty-heavy lineup or sit down a few of their better hitters. Their righties, other than Justin Turner and Adam Duvall, are very strikeout prone and much weaker hitters overall. This is a lineup that Skubal could handle if he has his good stuff and his control today.
Honorable Mentions: Corbin Burnes vs. Chicago, Christopher Sanchez vs. Minnesota, Charlie Morton vs. NY Mets
