We have one afternoon game today and more early-evening action than usual on a Friday, leaving us with just an 11-game main slate tonight on both FanDuel and DraftKings at 7:05 p.m. ET. Rotoballer is here to help you get ready for the action and dominate your MLB DFS contests tonight.
RotoBaller has all your fantasy baseball and DFS needs! Check our probable pitchers page to see all of today’s starters, and be sure to utilize our MLB DFS Optimizer to create unique lineups for tonight’s slate!
When we're looking for pitchers, we want to target guys who can limit runs and pitch deep enough into games to pick up wins. That said, we don’t always need to target pitchers on heavily favored teams. In fact, we want strikeouts more than anything whenever possible, as the scoring system on both FanDuel and DraftKings really rewards pitchers who rack up Ks.
My picks are a little top heavy today, as I can’t help but be drawn to some of the more expensive arms on this slate, but I made sure to include some cheaper targets, too.
MORE ROTOBALLER: Get any full-season RotoBaller MLB and DFS Premium Pass for 10% off using code SPORTING and gain exclusive access to our Team Sync platform, premium articles, daily matchup rating projections, 15 lineup tools, DFS cheat sheets, research stations, lineup optimizers, and much more!
Best starting pitchers, sleeper SPs for Friday's MLB DFS contests
By Dan Palyo
Shohei Ohtani, Angels vs. Pirates ($11,000 DK, $10,200 FD)
We have a couple of aces in great spots tonight, starting with Ohtani who gets a struggling Pittsburgh team at home. While Ohtani is the highest-priced pitcher on the DraftKings slate, he's well worth the investment tonight.
Multiple projection systems have him going over 30 DK points, and his strikeout projection is pushing up toward eight. The Pirates have scored just 3.6 runs per game over the past month and are starting four or five rookies in their lineup these days. Ohtani is a solid -200 favorite, and his strikeout percentage of 32.8 percent this season is the best on the slate.
In cash games, I would absolutely recommend anchoring your lineups with Ohtani or our next pitcher, who has an equally appealing matchup.
Framber Valdez, Astros @ A's ($10,800 DK, $11,200 FD)
Valdez is a few hundred bucks less than Ohtani on DraftKings but costs a full $1,000 more on FanDuel, so plan accordingly. I don’t think he carries quite the same upside, but there is plenty of safety here, as Valdez is the biggest favorite on the board (-2.75).
He isn’t as dominant of a strikeout pitcher, but he did just whiff 13 hitters in his last start and he faces a lowly Oakland squad that carries a 25-percent strikeout rate to lefties over the past month.
With Ohtani, you have some walk risk and even some slight risk of a blow-up inning, but Valdez uses an elite ground-ball rate to limit the damage. Again, we are splitting hairs here, as both pitchers have been elite this season and have top-five matchups, but it’s Ohtani over Valdez by the slimmest of margins for me as the top arm on the board. However, if you are playing multiple lineups, make sure to get some exposure to both of them.
MORE ROTOBALLER: Get any full-season RotoBaller MLB and DFS Premium Pass for 10% off using code SPORTING and gain exclusive access to our Team Sync platform, premium articles, daily matchup rating projections, 15 lineup tools, DFS cheat sheets, research stations, lineup optimizers, and much more!
Kodai Senga, Mets @ Red Sox ($9,600 DK, $10,400 FD)
There are just two other pitchers besides Ohtani with a strikeout percentage of 30 percent or more on this slate tonight, and Alec Marsh is one of them. I'm not going to tell you to play him, though his strikeouts make him interesting at a dirt-cheap price tag.
You guessed it -- the other guy is Senga, who has been trending up lately with two impressive starts in a row. Before the break, he dominated a good Arizona lineup for 12 strikeouts over eight one-run innings, and last time out, he whiffed nine Dodgers over six one-run frames.
Senga’s control has often been what has held him back at times this year, but he’s starting to reign in those walks. Boston presents a tough challenge, as it's have been an above-average offense this season. However, its lefty-loaded lineup doesn’t scare me off this play, as Senga has been great against lefties this year with a 30.4-percent strikeout percentage and an elite 0.89 ISO allowed.
Senga uses his cutter to pitch in on lefties and mixes that with his four-seamer and his devastating splitter (or forkball, or whatever you want to call it) to get excellent results. He’s quite a bit cheaper than either of the first two aces we discussed already, and I think he will be more lightly rostered, as well.
Lance Lynn, White Sox @ Twins ($7,600 DK, $9,200 FD)
Anytime Lance Lynn takes the mound this season, the range of outcomes has been incredibly wide. We are talking about a pitcher who has five-plus earned runs in five starts but who also has three double-digit strikeout performances, including a 16-K gem against Seattle and an 11-K, one-hit performance in seven shutout innings against the Blue Jays.
Lynn has an ERA over 6.00, but his SIERA of 3.80 suggests that he’s a much better pitcher than that. I can’t help but want to play him here, as his projected strikeout rate tonight tops 36 percent, giving him my highest strikeout projection of anyone on the board (over nine!).
Just make sure your Tums are close by because Lynn has given up his share of home runs this year and has also been hard by lefties. Minnesota leads the majors in strikeout rate against RHPs, but they also have some excellent power numbers and the ability to score runs in bunches.
The more exposure you get to Lynn tonight, the more I would recommend hedging with some Twins’ bats, and I would definitely not recommend him in any cash game formats.
Clarke Schmidt, Yankees vs. Royals ($6,200 DK, $8,000 FD)
Schmidt is my favorite cheap option tonight. He is a lot like Lynn so far this year but with a slightly higher floor and lower ceiling. Schmidt brings a solid 23-percent strikeout rate into tonight’s matchup with the Royals, a team that we like picking on for strikeouts and an offense that continues to rank near the bottom of almost every offensive category.
Schmidt's past two starts have been impressive, as he has struck out 15 over 11 innings while earning wins against Baltimore and Colorado. Perhaps a strong second half is in the works, and Schmidt’s underlying numbers for most of the season have been pointing toward his potential for a solid year.
If you need the salary on DraftKings tonight, I think Schmidt is even playable in cash formats as your SP2 paired with either Ohtani or Valdez.
Honorable Mentions: Joe Ryan vs. Chicago White Sox; JP Sears vs. Houston
