As usual, we have a hefty slate of games tonight, as both FanDuel and DraftKings have 12 games on their main DFS slate this evening. One of my top options tonight is a repeat from last Friday’s article in the same exact matchup, but otherwise, we have a bunch of new arms to target.
RotoBaller has all your fantasy baseball and DFS needs! Check our probable pitchers page to see all of today’s starters, and be sure to utilize our MLB DFS Optimizer to create unique lineups for tonight’s slate!
When we're looking for pitchers, we want to target guys who can limit runs and pitch deep enough into games to pick up wins. That said, we don’t always need to target pitchers on heavily favored teams. In fact, we want strikeouts more than anything whenever possible, as the scoring system on both FanDuel and DraftKings really rewards pitchers who rack up Ks. Let’s see who cracks the top five on my list this week!
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Best starting pitchers, sleeper SPs for Friday's MLB DFS contests
By Dan Palyo
Spencer Strider, Braves vs. Giants ($12,800 DK, $12,000 FD)
I would usually avoid a pitcher going up against the same team two starts in a row, but this is Strider, who's no ordinary pitcher. He’s a strikeout machine who whiffed 10 Giants last week while allowing just one hit and one walk.
He was my top option last Friday and came through with 38 DK points. He was pretty popular on that slate, and you can bet he will be extremely popular tonight with fewer high-priced alternatives.
The argument against using him is really just game theory. He could be around 40-50-percent rostered, even in tournaments. For cash games, just suck it up and pay Strider’s record-high salary on both sites. The risk of fading him in cash formats simply isn’t worth it, as he’s likely to put up a nice score again.
Kodai Senga, Mets vs. Angels ($9,600 DK, $10,900 FD)
It’s a pretty big drop from Strider to the next tier of pitchers, but Senga really interests me as an option for tournaments. He’s a pitcher with solid strikeout upside (28-percent strikeout percentage on the season) facing a very strikeout-prone Angels team.
The savings from Strider to Senga on DK ($3,200 difference) is substantial and will allow you to really upgrade your bats and stacks for GPP lineups. Senga comes into this game in good form of late, posting 20-plus DK points in each of his past three starts.
The worry with Senga is usually walks, but he seems to have curbed the free passes a bit, walking just two hitters per game over his past four starts. He’s done a great job with run prevention, allowing three earned runs or fewer in eight straight starts, as well.
The Angels lost Mike Trout again to another injury and have a lineup full of lefties with high K rates. I like Senga’s chances of piling up some strikeouts with his stellar splitter tonight. He has Strider-like upside for a lot less salary.
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Dylan Cease, White Sox vs. A's ($8,900 DK, $9,400 FD)
Earlier in the year, this would have been a smash spot and Cease would have been at least $10K. However, Cease has not been nearly as dominant in the second half, and the A's have hit a lot better recently, making them a more dangerous offense than they were earlier in the year, too.
I’m still intrigued by Cease and his strikeout ability against the free-swinging As -- but strictly in GPPs. In fact, Cease did not perform well against them in his only matchup against Oakland earlier this year. So, it’s a bit of a boom-or-bust spot, as the Athletics are about as equally likely to strike out 10 times against Cease as they are to hang five or six runs on him and force an early exit.
Tanner Bibee, Guardians @ Blue Jays ($8,300 DK, $9,800 FD)
I am a bit more interested in Bibee than Cease if I drop down into the $8K range on DraftKings, though I should point out that Cease is the cheaper option on FanDuel.
Bibee is having a fantastic rookie year for Cleveland and has been really consistent down the stretch. We often see rookies dominate but then struggle in the next start, but Bibee has settled into a nice groove, going 11 straight starts with three or fewer earned runs allowed.
Toronto is a good offense with a solid collection of hitters, but it can be incredibly inconsistent, so we can target the Blue Jays with good pitchers occasionally.
Bibee had one of his strongest starts this season against the Jays back on Aug. 8 when he shut them out over seven innings with six strikeouts. There’s no reason to think he can’t do it again.
Cole Irvin, Orioles vs. Rockies ($5,000 DK, $6,200 FD)
Here is the punt of the day if you are looking for a super cheap option to pair with Strider or Senga as your SP2 on DraftKings. Using a pitcher this cheap on FanDuel is always a big risk, as you really can’t win a tournament with a pitcher who puts up like 20 points if someone like Strider puts up 50-plus points.
Irvin is pitching at home against a Rockies' offense that's been mediocre all year, especially when they are away from their hitter-friendly home park in Denver. You won’t get many strikeouts from Irvin, but he does have the ability to induce ground balls and soft contact without hurting himself via walks.
Since rejoining the rotation after a brief stint in the bullpen, Irvin has allowed just one earned run over two starts spanning 10 innings. He built up to 77 pitches in his last outing, so perhaps they allow him to go 85-90 pitches here tonight. At only $5K on DraftKings, all we really need is 10-12 DK points and Irvin pays off this price tag.
Honorable Mentions: Brady Singer vs. Seattle, Chris Bassitt vs. Cleveland, Dane Dunning vs. Minnesota
