It’s the last Friday night MLB slate before the All-Star break and then those of us who gamble on baseball daily will have to find something else to do for a few days (NBA Summer League, anyone?). Tonight, we have another solid 12-gamer on the main DFS slate for both FanDuel and DraftKings, and I'm here to bring you my top options on the bump.
RotoBaller has all your fantasy baseball and DFS needs! Check our probable pitchers page to see all of today’s starters, and be sure to utilize our MLB DFS Optimizer to create unique lineups for tonight’s slate!
When we're looking for pitchers, we want to target guys who can limit runs and pitch deep enough into games to pick up wins. That said, we don’t always need to target pitchers on heavily favored teams. In fact, we want strikeouts more than anything whenever possible, as the scoring system on both FanDuel and DraftKings really rewards pitchers who rack up Ks.
We have a really solid group to choose from tonight, so I will continue to roll with my top five but will also throw in a few “honorable mentions” at the end.
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Best starting pitchers, sleeper SPs for Friday's MLB DFS contests
By Dan Palyo
Andrew Abbott, Reds @ Brewers ($9,900 DK, $10,600 FD)
The Cincinnati rookie is the top-priced pitcher on both sites, but his $9,900 salary on DraftKings is a little easier to stomach. Abbott took a little while to get going with the strikeouts once he came up, but he’s been outstanding lately with 30 strikeouts over his past three starts.
A lot of folks, myself included, have been waiting for that 1.21 ERA to regress, as Abbott carries a 4.04 SIERA and is a fly-ball pitcher who’s pitching in some dangerous hitters’ parks quite often. That said, I'm not sure that regression hits today when he faces the Brew Crew and their lowly numbers against lefties.
Milwaukee has cut down on their strikeouts against lefties, but they trail only Kansas City on this slate in terms of their wRC+ vs. southpaws this season (82). Abbott shut them out and held them to just one hit and four walks while striking out six in his MLB debut, and he’s improved since then. I have him projected for around six or seven strikeouts tonight, so as long as he keeps the ball in the yard, he should be fine. He’s probably safe enough for cash games on DraftKings, but I think I will pay down a bit in FanDuel cash games to this next pitcher.
Hunter Brown, Astros vs. Mariners ($9,200 DK, $9,000 FD)
Brown comes into this start with a solid 3.76 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. His SIERA of 3.44 is proof that his numbers are legit, too, and a 27.5-percent strikeout percentage vs. an eight-percent walk percentage are great numbers to see from any pitcher, let alone a rookie.
Brown has had his ups and downs and has struggled in two of his past three starts, but those two rough starts came against the Mets and Rangers -- two teams with very talented offenses. Despite giving up a lot of runs in those games, Brown still managed to strike out six and seven hitters, respectively.
In fact, he’s been able to strike out six or more batters in seven of his past nine starts. The strikeout angle is one that I am playing today as Brown faces the Mariners, a team that has struck out more than anyone except Minnesota against RHPs this season.
I have Brown projected for just as many strikeouts as Abbott, and his matchup is almost as good, as Seattle has been mediocre against RHPs this year in terms of power and production. Brown is one of those rare power pitchers who also induces a large share of ground balls, which really has helped him with run prevention this year. At only $9K on FanDuel, he’s a huge bargain and my favorite pitcher on that site on a point-per-dollar basis.
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Dylan Cease, White Sox vs. Cardinals ($8,500 DK, $9,900 FD)
Things get interesting down at this price point on DraftKings. We have Yu Darvish facing off against Justin Verlander, and both guys are interesting plays, but I can’t say I have total confidence in either of those respective matchups.
So, I find myself back on Cease, even after he had a fairly disappointing outing against a bad Oakland team in his last start. Cease was just so good throughout June, averaging over 22 DK points per game in five June starts.
Cease shut down some really good offenses in that stretch (Dodgers, Rangers, Angels), so I am willing to chalk up his last start as more of a fluke than anything else. The Cardinals are a weird team because on paper they have a fairly deep and balanced lineup that doesn’t strike out all that much. However, they also aren’t a lineup that really scares you either with Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Nolan Gorman as the only real power threats.
This will come down to Cease having good control, as the Cards draw a decent number of walks. They project to roll out at least five righties, however, and that plays into Cease’s strength, as he carries a 32-percent strikeout percentage against righties and has limited them to just a .291 wOBA and .119 ISO. This price is just too nice for Cease on DraftKings and I don’t mind pairing him with Abbott or Brown as a cash game duo.
Jordan Montgomery, Cardinals @ White Sox ($8,100 DK, $9,300 FD)
Speaking of guys who dominated in June, Montgomery was outstanding and carried that strong performance into July when he shut down the Yankees and picked up his sixth win last week.
Monty isn’t a traditional strikeout pitcher by any means, but he has demonstrated some excellent control this year and is using his sinker to keep the ball down and induce his fair share of soft contact.
This matchup concerns me a little, as the White Sox could put as many as eight righties in the lineup. They’ve been more effective against LHPs this season, but the strong stretch of performances from Montgomery against other solid opponents makes me think he will be prepared for the challenge, too. I’d reserve him for GPPs tonight because of the boom-or-bust nature of this matchup.
Griffin Canning, Angels @ Dodgers ($8,000 DK, $8,900 FD)
I wanted to throw out another cheaper guy since the top end of the salary scale is pretty loaded tonight. Canning might come at really low ownership tonight, too, considering no one wants to go picking on the Dodgers, right?
Let’s talk about Canning’s season thus far. He has a 6-3 record with a 4.29 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. His SIERA of 3.98 suggests he’s actually underperforming a bit in the ERA department, and his 12.7 SwStr% also suggests that his strikeout percentage of 24 percent may actually have some room to improve, too.
He’s not walking guys, which is a good thing because he has allowed 12 HRs in 13 starts, and those long balls don’t hurt nearly as much when there aren’t men on base.
His recent form has been really darn good, as we have to go all the back to May 17 to find a start where he didn’t complete at least six innings. His last start against Arizona was the first time he allowed more than three earned runs in that span, but he also set a season-high with nine strikeouts at the same time.
Canning is a GPP-only option tonight based on the matchup, but I really have been impressed with the evolution of this young pitcher. He’s arguably too cheap for how well he’s pitched over the past six weeks.
Honorable Mentions: Zac Gallen vs. Pittsburgh, Corbin Burnes vs. Cincinnati, Aaron Civale vs. Kansas City
