With a loaded 12-game slate on Friday night, it’s about to get really interesting for daily fantasy baseball players! There's no shortage of solid arms tonight for tonight’s DFS contests, and, as usual, we'll be focusing on the main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET.
RotoBaller has all your fantasy baseball and DFS needs! Check our probable pitchers page to see all of today’s starters, and be sure to utilize our MLB DFS Optimizer to create unique lineups for tonight’s slate!
When we're looking for pitchers, we want to target guys who can limit runs and pitch deep enough into games to pick up wins. That said, we don’t always need to target pitchers on heavily favored teams. In fact, we want strikeouts more than anything whenever possible, as the scoring system on both FanDuel and DraftKings really rewards pitchers who rack up Ks.
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Best starting pitchers, sleeper SPs for Friday's MLB DFS contests
By Dan Palyo
Joe Ryan, Twins @ Angels ($10,300 DK, $11,000 FD)
Yes, Ryan is an ace, and it’s time to accept that and start treating him like one. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the slate today -- for good reason. His 3.07 SIERA and 29.7-percent strikeout rate are both the best on the board.
Ryan is 6-1 with a 0.84 WHIP through his first 50 innings pitched. He’s not walking anyone, and his retooled arsenal has been deadly so far, as he’s featuring both a sweeper and split-change that are racking up whiffs and helping his 93-mph fastball play faster to hitters.
The Angels are a slightly below-average matchup for Ryan, but he has pitched well in big spots multiple times already this year, shutting down the Yankees (twice), Houston, and the Cubs.
When we pay up in cash games it’s for a floor, and Ryan has had a 28-FD-point floor this year that he’s hit twice out of eight starts. We get an excellent ceiling here, too, as Ryan now has three double-digit strikeout games under his belt after he whiffed 10 Cubs in his last start.
I have Ryan ranked just ahead of this next pitcher, who is also an intriguing option to pay up for tonight and could prove to be a solid pivot.
Sandy Alcantara, Marlins @ Giants ($9,800 DK, $10,400 FD)
It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster ride for the defending NL Cy Young winner this season. Alcantara has flashed huge upside (shutout vs. Minnesota) but also has some pretty poor outings (nine earned runs in only four innings vs. Philly) in his game log, too.
I think Alcantara is on the upswing right now, logging two nine-K games in a row, though he did surrender six runs in his past start against the Reds.
We know we are getting innings from Alcantara. The big righthander has gone at least five innings in all but one start and has pitched into the eighth inning or later three times. In his past three games, he’s eclipsed the 100-pitch mark, so we know his manager is comfortable leaving him out there, too.
The Giants have some solid power numbers (.196 ISO vs. RHP) that give me some pause, but they also strike out 25 percent of the time. As I mentioned earlier, Alcantara's strikeouts appear to be on the rise. In tournaments, I certainly like the idea of taking some shots on a guy that we know can go the distance and pile up strikeouts if he’s got his best stuff.
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James Paxton, Red Sox @ Padres ($8,300 DK, $8,300 FD)
I am jumping down the salary scale quite a ways for this next pitcher. Unfortunately, Shane McClanahan and Zac Gallen are pitching in the early games, so we don’t have them on the main slate. It’s Ryan or Alcantara for me at the top, and then I’m dropping down to Paxton.
I have to mention that I am deliberately fading rookie Bryce Miller against Atlanta tonight because I think he finally gets hit hard by one of the best offenses in baseball. He could be a bit of a landmine since many DFS players will simply look at his elite production and sparkling ERA through his first three starts.
Paxton could also turn out to be fools gold here, too, as we have only one start to analyze before making a decision on him tonight. That start was a good one, however, as he struck out nine Cardinals through five frames.
He walked only one hitter and gave up one homer (to the red-hot Nolan Arenado), but otherwise, he looked like the old Paxton that we saw dominate in his days in Seattle. He was throwing in the high 90s with his fastball and was allowed to throw 87 pitches.
It’s definitely a tough matchup, but I think Paxton’s strikeout upside is worth the risk, especially in a price range that's littered with other risky options (like Reid Detmers, who's another intentional fade of mine tonight).
Ranger Suarez, Phillies vs. Cubs ($6,300 DK, $8,600 FD)
Both of these last two pitchers are really just salary-saving tournament options. It gets pretty dicey down at the bottom of the salary scale, but I think DraftKings has mispriced Suarez here quite a bit, as he really should be about $1000 more expensive.
Suarez has only one start under his belt after missing the first six weeks of the season with an injury, and that came at Coors Field, where pitchers can get into trouble awfully easily.
We saw Suarez throw 72 pitches in his debut, so I think we get more like 85-90 out of him here tonight. He gets to come home to Philly and face a slumping Cubs offense that has been trending down a bit after its hot start.
As long as he keeps the ball on the ground (he had an elite ground-ball percentage last season), I think he’s in a good spot to pitch five or six solid innings. He’s not going to strike out many hitters, but he's shown that he can be an effective pitcher. For $6.3K on DK, I am willing to roll the dice on Suarez logging his first really good start of the season.
Brandon Bielak, Astros vs. A's ($6,200 DK, $7,000 FD)
Full disclosure here: it was between Bielak and Zack Greinke for the final spot in today’s article, so that should tell you my lack of confidence in this selection. Greinke lacks any real strikeout upside and just saw Chicago recently, so we'll roll with Bielak against Oakland instead.
A converted reliever, Bielak has thrown between 75-87 pitches across his first three outings. His WHIP is atrocious, as he’s walked five and allowed 20 hits across 13-plus innings. However, he didn’t walk anyone in his past start against the White Sox, and he’s facing a relatively impatient Oakland offense that doesn’t walk much at all tonight.
In fact, the A's don't do much of anything well against righties, as they rank near the bottom of the league in multiple offensive categories. The price is right for Bielak, but understand the risk you’re taking when rostering him as your SP2 on DraftKings. He should be deployed in large-field tournaments only!
