Just three years ago, Saint wide receiver Michael Thomas was being drafted in fantasy as the consensus WR1, a top-six pick amid the likes of Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry. Today, he's the 42nd wideout off the board on average, right around the 100-106 range overall. My, how the mighty have fallen.
Now, as always, we're left to ponder if Thomas presents a golden opportunity for a boom sleeper if he bounces back, or if his late ADP is appropriate given his history of injuries and other issues. That's our job today — to determine whether Thomas is worth drafting to our fantasy squads or leaving for another manager to worry about for 14 to 17 weeks.
We all know about Thomas's ability when 100 percent healthy. His unbelievable two-year run in 2018 and 2019 saw him collect two All-Pro nods, two single-season reception titles, one receiving yard title, and an Offensive Player of the Year award.
His stats in that 2019 year were, in a word, insane: 149 catches, 1,725 receiving yards, 107.1 yards per game, nine total TDs. In all, he scored 374.6 PPR points — the fourth-most by a wideout since FantasyPros started tracking stats a decade ago. For context, that's 5.9 points more than Justin Jefferson scored last season — and J-Jets had an 18th game with which to work.
However, we also know about the negative stuff. Thomas has played just 10 total games — and caught just 56 passes — since the start of the 2020 season. It's almost like the $100 million contract he landed in the summer of 2019 — which was then a record — cursed MT, the Saints, or maybe both.
First it was a high-ankle sprain, then a hamstring, then an ankle again in 2020, ultimately sidelining him for nine games that season. Then a setback with his rehab on said ankle kept him from the entirety of the 2021 season. He returned in 2022, but started just three games before suffering a pedal toe dislocation that landed him on the IR. Agonizing for Who Dat Nation...bewildering for his fantasy faithful.
Now Thomas is 30, entering the final year of that lucrative six-year contract. He's playing second fiddle to outstanding WR1 Chris Olave, a guy we rank as the 12th-best wideout on the board. Derek Carr will be throwing him passes this season, with the Jameis Winston days in the rear-view mirror and the All-Pro Drew Brees years a distant memory. So, where does all this put Thomas in terms of value? Is he a high-value sleeper or an auto-fade?
Below, we'll break down Thomas's 2023 fantasy outlook, and decide whether he's a smart draft pick at his ADP in fantasy football leagues.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2023 Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Michael Thomas injury update: Is Saints WR healthy?
UPDATE 9/2: In an interview with ESPN, Thomas addressed concerns with his health, saying that his body was rejecting the hardware used to repair the injuries. "I don't want to use this as an excuse," Thomas told ESPN. "But also, when you get surgeries and they put hardware in, sometimes your body rejects the hardware."
For the time being, Thomas seems to be healthy and ready to start the 2023 campaign. He has flashed his brilliance throughout the summer, both in practice during camp and in preseason games against Pro Bowl defensive backs like Derwin James. His route-running, speed off the block, and strong hands remain tantalizing when he's all-in and fully healthy.
Of course, it goes without saying that Thomas is injury-prone. He has missed 40 of the Saints' 50 regular season games since his last Pro Bowl season four years ago, and DraftSharks lists him as a "high risk" to get injured at some point this fantasy season.
He's 30 years old and now New Orleans' WR2 behind 2022 breakout Chris Olave, who will almost certainly be Derek Carr's new favorite receiver. So, the health part is an "OK for now," but that's just the start of the conversation.
2023 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
Michael Thomas's 2023 fantasy ranking and ADP
Entering the season, SN Fantasy has Thomas ranked as the No. 45 WR in PPR formats and No. 43 in standard leagues. We're not just hesitant about his health and durability — we also worry about his age, the state of the Saints' offense, and his role behind younger, more explosive weapons like Olave and running backs Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams.
Hell, even Rashid Shaheed strikes us perhaps a better investment than Thomas, whose recent history has included multiple season-ending injuries, miscommunication and delayed surgery, a holdout, and even an ominous tweet about the Saints trying to ruin his reputation while he chose not to destroy the organization's by airing its dirty laundry.
In short, that's some Antonio Brown-level drama most fantasy managers are simply unwilling to subscribe to all season. Like, you may want occasional coupons to Target, but you don't want to have to read daily emails from Target to get them, right? Drafting Michael Thomas is an exercise in patience — one that can pay off handsomely here and there, but for the most part seems like more of a nuisance than a game-changer.
We have Thomas at 102 overall, right around FantasyPros' consensus ADP of 104. That puts him right around the Cowboys' Brandin Cooks (WR40), the Broncos' Courtland Sutton (WR41), the Patriots' JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR44), and the Ravens' Zay Flowers (WR43) and Odell Beckham Jr. (WR45).
2023 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
Michael Thomas's fantasy outlook 2023
Drafting Thomas and expecting his past ceiling seems like an exercise in futility. He's on the wrong side of 30, he has missed 80 percent of New Orleans' regular season games since the start of the 2020 season, and he has a questionable history when it comes to mindset, work ethic, and motivation.
2023 FANTASY SLEEPERS
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Each Team
Then there's the fact that Saints insider Jeff Duncan has literally cautioned NOLA fans and fantasy footballers alike that "a former NFL receivers coach" asked him from the sidelines in mid-August, "What's up with Michael Thomas? He can't get off the line of scrimmage. He's getting locked up by a safety."
2023 AUCTION VALUES (Standard & PPR):
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Overall
Now, some people have called that more smoke than fire — especially considering the rest of the Saints beat writers have seemed encouraged by Thomas's preseason, and even Duncan himself had some good to say about the wideout in that story. But a guy with 53,000 followers usually doesn't tweet things like that just for article clicks or 'X' follows — there's clearly some legitimate concern that Thomas is a shell of his formerly dominant self.
2023 POSITION TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST
We can't blame you for spending a pick in the 90-100 range for someone with the immense skill set Thomas has exhibited in the past. We're just afraid 30-year-old MT will give you about 40 percent of his peak. Typically, we try to avoid drafting for big names and opt instead to draft for value. With an absurd amount of uncertainty around Thomas, we'll most likely be staying away from the potential drama, heartache, or frustration that has so often haunted him and his fantasy owners over the better part of the past half-decade.
