In fantasy football, we must always determine value, upside, and opportunity. In the case of RB committees and veteran-vs.-rookie positional battles, evaluating the full scope of unique situations can be crucial to your long-term success. Two such battles -- the Seahawks' Rashaad Penny vs. Kenneth Walker III and the Jets' Michael Carter vs. Breece Hall -- are currently affecting 2022 fantasy rankings. While the rookies are always "more exciting," the veterans might be bigger sleeper values in your draft.
Before you can decide which of Penny or Carter you'd rather have, you have to answer if Carter can hold off Hall and whether Penny can retain RB1 duties over Walker. Let’s discuss.
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Michael Carter fantasy outlook, projection 2022
Carter put together a solid rookie campaign last season, scoring four TDs and coming 46 yards short of 1,000 scrimmage yards in an otherwise-miserable offense. That's not too shabby for a back who played 14 games and started just 11 (he missed three games due to a high right ankle sprain). Still, the Jets drafted stud Iowa State back Breece Hall early in the second round. Bad news for Carter, right?
Maybe not. According to long-time Jets beat writer Michael Cimini, Carter has enjoyed a strong training camp and likely remains New York’s RB1. That aligns with the narrative of Gang Green’s preseason — Carter and Hall split reps in the opener against the Eagles on Aug. 12, and then Carter sat out with the rest of the starters 10 days later while Hall logged minimal snaps with the second unit led by QB2 Mike White.
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So, the good news is that Carter appears to be the favorite to start the 2022 season atop the Jets’ RB depth chart. The bad news: he might still end up outside the territory of RB30. New York’s offensive line still draws plenty of question marks, as does the health of starting QB Zach Wilson. If Hall turns into the NFL star many football minds — including former Jet LaDainian Tomlinson — Carter won’t be the RB1 for long.
Where Carter’s role should be safe, at least in the early part of the season, is in the passing game. He hauled in 36 catches for 325 yards in his rookie campaign, good for a solid 9.0 yards per catch. That also bolstered his efficiency numbers — he averaged 4.3 yards per carry but 5.3 per touch. Still, Carter caught just 65.45-percent of his 55 targets, which failed to crack the top 100 of NFL players with at least 30 receptions.
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Carter has plenty of doubters — his ADP currently sits at 106 overall, although that should shift substantially after Cimini’s tweet. The rookie Hall, meanwhile, has been drafted in the third round or fourth round of most drafts with an ADP of 38. Hall obviously offers more upside — he scored at least one TD in his final 24 NCAA games and earned Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year honors multiple times — but it’s tough to trust either back in this offense.
If you do pick Hall in the fourth round, you would be wise to also add Carter to have the insurance policy in place. Drafting Carter alone seems like a low-floor, low-ceiling move. If he stays in the 100s, go for it, but consider finding better value earlier than 100. Rhamondre Stevenson, Melvin Gordon III, Brian Robinson Jr., and James Cook all seem like higher-ceiling picks in Carter’s ADP range.
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Rashaad Penny fantasy outlook, projection 2022
Here’s a situation where the veteran will start — and should probably finish — the season as his squad’s RB1, barring injury. Penny was low-key one of the more effective backs in the NFL when he was on the field for Seattle in 2021, averaging an NFL-best 6.3 yards per carry. Over the last six games of the season, Penny served as the highest-scoring RB with an average of 19.5 fantasy points per game.
YAC per attempt in 2021 (min. 75 rushes) ⤵️
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) August 19, 2022
1. Rashaad Penny - 3.1
2. Nick Chubb - 3.0
3. Jonathan Taylor - 2.8
4. Kareem Hunt - 2.8
5. Rhamondre Stevenson - 2.7 pic.twitter.com/aStpFuWrHb
We simply can’t ignore that level of production, nor do we think the rookie Walker will jeopardize Penny’s role in the offense anytime soon. Kung Fu Kenny — as I’ll be calling him — has plenty of tantalizing game tape from his two years at Michigan State (after transferring from Wake Forest). He scored 32 TDs across those two seasons and rushed for 1,636 yards. However, he is actively recovering from his Aug. 16 hernia surgery.
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Record screech. Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said on Aug. 21 that Walker is “still pretty tender. He’s got some things to heal, to go in and do what they did. So, it’s just a matter of time, but we don’t have a designated sequence yet. We’ll have to see how he responds."
To be blunt, that’s a disconcerting take. Hernias have been known to take some time to recover from, even if less severe than the dreaded “sports hernia.” Some health and medical experts have hinted that the timeframe for Walker’s recovery might not even be known as of yet, considering surgeons generally recommend that hernia surgery patients avoid lifting more than 15 pounds for multiple weeks after procedures. In this case, "no designated sequence" is a fluffy way of saying "out indefinitely" or "no timetable."
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Despite Carroll’s back-and-forth optimism about the prospects of KWIII returning to the field by Week 1 when Seattle hosts Russell Wilson and his new Broncos brethren, we feel it might be best to pump the brakes. Carroll has never been known for accurately conveying injury scenarios, and we know the man gets excited about stud young backs. Hell, he has even hinted at Walker having a future as a three-down back.
But why would Carroll rush the return of a running back that special onto an offense that’s quite unspectacular (to put it nicely)?
We know this: whether Drew Lock or Geno Smith leads this offense, it’s going to have issues. The run game will be used early and enough. The Seahawks have ranked within the top five in total rushing attempts in five of the past nine seasons. Penny has the experience, and he proved late last season that he can still dominate multiple NFL defenses.
Nobody with at least 75 carries averaged more yards after contact than Penny’s 3.1 last season, and among NFL backs with at least 100 attempts, he led all NFL backs with a 110.5 elusive rating. He had four games in the latter part of the season with 135-plus rushing yards, and three games with multiple TDs. You can sleep on Penny like the rest of the fantasy drafters letting him slip to the eighth and ninth round, but our eyes are wide open.
Rashaad Penny averaged 19.5 fantasy points per game over the last 6 games of the 2021 season.
— Moody (@EricNMoody) August 17, 2022
The Seahawks have ranked within the top five in total rushing attempts in 5 of the last 9 seasons. pic.twitter.com/UpY3o0EBjd
Walker has been going 88 overall, six spots after Penny’s ADP. With the rookie’s hernia injury, the air of uncertainty around the Seahawks’ offense, and Penny’s established dominance last season despite a mediocre offensive line, it’s hard to understand ranking Walker just behind Penny. Is it because the veteran dealt with a groin issue earlier this month, missing about a week of practice? Is it because he’s been plagued by injuries his whole career?
Honestly, the close rankings are probably due partly to both those factors, but more likely due to everyone’s fascination with rookie skill-position players. Fantasy owners always seem mesmerized by the upside possibilities of new players, sometimes even blinded to the fact that a better immediate option exists in the same depth chart. Penny is the better option, and we’d be fine with landing him in the range between the late-sixth round and early-eighth round. For now, Walker’s more like a 10th-round back in redrafts.
The verdict: Fade Carter unless handcuffing and draft Penny regardless.
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