We got close to hitting another winner last week with Bryson DeChambeau. He looked like a lock to at least make a playoff, but then Matthew Wolff drained a long eagle putt on the 18th hole to grab his first career victory. Both Wolff, and Collin Morikawa — who finished T2 last week — have huge futures ahead of them, and they are both in the field this week for the John Deere Classic.
The John Deere Classic is held at TPC Deere Run and will be the final PGA Tour tune-up before the eyes of the golfing world head across the Atlantic for The Open Championship. This is another weak field event — perhaps the softest field we see all season long. It’s telling that the top three in odds this week are rookies in Morikawa (16/1), Viktor Hovland (18/1), and Wolff (22/1). These three players have a combined 16 PGA Tour starts, making this week a complete toss-up.
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The layout at TPC Deere Run is straight forward. Players won’t be forced to hit driver off the tee. Once in the fairway, they will be left with a lot of short iron and wedge approach spots. This is a prototypical "pitch and putt" type event, where the winner should be in the 20-under-to-25-under range.
Looking back at past winners, we see that distance off the tee is virtually no advantage at TPC Deere Run. Short-knockers with strong short games such as Jordan Spieth, Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, Brian Harman and Ryan Moore all have won here in the past 10 years. The formula for success is hit the fairway, put your wedge to 15 feet, then make some putts.
Because the board is so wide open this week, I’ll be completely fading the top end in favor of some deeper long shots. Fading the young guns — who are all overvalued — is a prudent play, and there are plenty of players in the 40/1 — and over — range who offer good win equity in a field this weak.
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Key Stats for TPC Deere Run
Approach < 150 Yards
Par 4 Scoring
Birdie or Better Percentage
Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage
John Deere Classic betting advice
Outright Bets to Consider
*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Zach Johnson 40/1
Johnson has been mediocre this season, but I love the value on his 40/1 odds at a course where he has a dominant track record. Johnson won this event back in 2012 and has finished in the top 35 every year since, with three top-five finishes. TPC Deere Run is made for a player such as Johnson, and I’m surprised his odds aren’t at least in the 30/1 range. I don’t love the form, but the odds here don’t match up with the elite course history.
Troy Merritt 70/1
Merritt is flashing some form after missing a good chunk of the season through injury. He posted a season-best tied-for-seventh finish last week at the 3M Open and looked comfortable in his approach game. Merritt is frankly a terrible driver of the ball, but this is an event where he'll be able to club down frequently off the tee, similar to what he was able to do last week at 3M. He’s a two-time PGA Tour winner so at least we know the upside is there, which is more than you can say about the vast majority of this field.
Joel Dahmen 85/1
We’ve bet on Dahmen a few times this season, and this is a great week to go back to him. Dahmen posted a ied-for-second showing at this event last season, and TPC Deere Run fits his game nicely. While Dahmen has been in a bit of a slump since his second-place showing at the Wells Fargo Championship, this is a perfect "get right" spot for him. He has putted well this season, and could contend for a win if his iron and wedge play returns to his baseline performance after a few months of struggles.
Dominic Bozzelli 225/1
This is a pure deep bomb play. Bozzelli hasn’t flashed much of any form this season, but he tends to play his best golf on these short, birdie-fest layouts. He finished tied for fifth at the Desert Classic, a season-high finish. That was another event that placed a high emphasis on wedge play. Bozzelli grabbed finishes of tied-for-23rd and tied-for-25th here the last two years, so I don’t hate a tied-for-20th bet at +750.