Seahawks' rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba's status for Week 1 is in doubt. The 20th overall pick in this year's draft suffered a small fracture in his left wrist in Seattle's second preseason game after narrowly scoring a TD on a 48-yard reception.
Competing for snaps alongside established veterans DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, Smith-Njigba's 2023 fantasy outlook was relatively murky before the injury. Talent isn't the issue with Smith-Njigba, but a path to consistent usage in the passing game complicated his fantasy value. With his early-season status up in the air, how should fantasy owners approach JSN in upcoming drafts?
Below, we'll break down Smith-Njigba's 2023 fantasy outlook and decide whether he's a smart draft pick in fantasy football leagues.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2023 Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Jaxon Smith-Njigba injury update: How long will Seahawks' WR be out?
UPDATE 2 9/6: According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Smith-Njigba is expected to play in Week 1, boosting his season-long fantasy prospects and making him a valuable pick at his current ADP.
UPDATE 9/2: Smith-Njigba is considered a "long shot" to play in Week 1, but he did not go on IR to start the season, indicating he'll be back by Week 4 at the latest.
According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Smith-Njigba underwent surgery to repair a broken bone in his wrist on Aug. 22. Additionally, head coach Pete Carroll said on Aug. 22 that Smith-Njigba would likely miss a few weeks: "We're going to be optimistic about it. Three, four weeks, we'll see what happens. We don't know yet."
Of course, Carroll and company want to remain optimistic, but there's no reason to trot out your rookie WR for Week 1 if his wrist isn't exactly close to healed. It's best to temper your expectations on JSN's potential return when contemplating utilizing a mid-round draft pick on him. His season-long outlook isn't significantly altered as long as he misses just one or two weeks, but he may not make as profound of an impact within the first quarter or so of the fantasy season.
2023 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 2023 fantasy ranking and ADP
Entering the season, SN Fantasy has Smith-Njigba ranked as the No. 43 WR in PPR formats and the No. 41 WR in standard ones. As mentioned above, the path to a reliable snap share that can translate to consistent fantasy production is his one question mark outside of the injury.
FantasyPros has Smith-Njigba's ADP at No. 89 in PPR formats and No. 83 in standard ones. His ADP translates to the overall WR36 in PPR formats and the WR39 in standard ones. There's a high probability his ADP will dip in the coming days with fantasy owners hesitant to draft him at his ADP with his early-season status in jeopardy.
In PPR formats, other WRs coming off the board around the same time as Smith-Njigba include George Pickens (WR36), Marquise Brown (WR35), Jahan Dotson (WR37), and Jordan Addison (WR38). In standard formats, those WRs include Addison (WR37), Gabe Davis (WR38), Brandin Cooks (WR40), and Treylon Burks (WR41).
2023 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's fantasy outlook 2023
With his ADP potentially dropping a round or so after his injury, Smith-Njigba still makes for a high-upside mid-round draft pick. Despite some concern surrounding the Seahawks' willingness to employ three wide-receiver sets, Seattle wouldn't have expended first-round draft capital on a player who outproduced fellow first-rounders Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave in his last full season at Ohio State.
2023 FANTASY SLEEPERS
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Each Team
Although he logged just 60 snaps in his final year at Ohio State due to a hamstring injury, Draft Sharks' injury predictor pegs Smith-Njigba as a "medium risk" for injury. Draft Sharks projects Smith-Njigba to miss two games with injury, and although their durability rating on Smith-Njigba is relatively low (1.40), plenty of other WRs are at an increased risk of injury.
2023 AUCTION VALUES (Standard & PPR):
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Overall
With the Seahawks ranking within the top half of the league in pass rate and pass attempts last season, Smith-Njigba's capable of producing WR3/4 type of numbers despite running routes alongside Metcalf and Lockett. Even if he misses the first couple of weeks of the regular season, he's got a chance to post 800-plus receiving yards as the team's "third option" in the passing game.
2023 POSITION TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST
That said, it's tough to make a case to draft Smith-Njigba over WRs with a similar ADP like Pickens, Brown, Dotson, Cooks, and Davis, as those WRs have more profound roles in their respective offenses. However, if your leaguemates are hesitant to draft him because of his preseason injury, then selecting him in, say, the back-end of the eighth or ninth round in 12-team formats yields plenty of value.
Despite his mini setback, a top-35 finish is well within the realm of possibility for arguably the most talented receiver in the 2022 draft class. His landing spot might not be the most ideal, but Seattle's offense can support three WRs with starting capability in fantasy.
