The West Coast swing of the PGA Tour season is over and we are on to Florida for The Honda Classic played at PGA National’s Champions Course. PGA National is known for its incredibly difficult back-nine three-hole stretch known as “The Bear Trap”. Get used to those words, as you will being hearing plenty about it during the TV broadcasts -- and if you're betting on the tournament or playing in a daily fantasy golf contests, chances are you'll be watching.
The majority of the events over the past few months have favored long hitters off the tee, but PGA National is a distinct departure from that style of play. Not only is the Bermuda rough at PGA National by far the most brutal we have seen thus far, but there is also water in play on all but two holes.
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This leads to many players opting to go less-than-driver off tee in an attempt to avoid the many issues that PGA National presents. While keeping it in the fairway is essential here, it is equally as important to be placing your approaches on the green to avoid the sticky Bermuda rough that lurks just off the greens. There perhaps isn’t another non-major event where overall ball striking is more important than this week at PGA National. The wind is also going to play a huge factor, as the average wind at this event typically stays above 15 mph, so look for guys who are comfortable playing in windy conditions and are able to keep their ball flight low.
In terms of winners at this event, we have seen a decent mix between the elite and longshots with top-end guys such as Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler and Adam Scott winning the past three seasons and players such as Russell Henley, Michael Thompson, Rory Sabbatini, and Camilo Villegas all taking home the title in the few years prior. Scoring is going to be at a premium this week, and we will likely see the winning score hover around -10. The cut line will very likely be a few shots over par.
Before we get into this week's picks, we have to point out that plenty of strategy goes into cashing winning DFS lineups and winning betting tickets. By now you should know the best place to start is RotoQL’s DFS tools and the BetQL Mobile App. Our easy-to-use RotoQL PGA Lineup Optimizer gives you a big advantage when you're putting together DFS lineups, and our BetQL Trending Picks and Public Betting tools provide a massive edge when you're making bets, regardless of bankroll size.
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Key Stats
Ball Striking
Driving Accuracy
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Strokes Gained: Approach 150-175 yards
Par 4 Scoring
Honda Classic picks (Daily Fantasy Golf)
DFS Core Plays to Consider:
Top End: Justin Thomas, Adam Scott, Gary Woodland, Webb Simpson
Mid-Range: J.T. Poston, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, CT Pan, Graeme McDowell
Value Plays: Harold Varner, Jason Kokrak, Trey Mullinax, Brian Gay, Martin Trainer, Scot Langley
Honda Classic betting advice
Outright Bets to Consider
*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Brooks Koepka 14/1
At the top end, the best value has to be Koepka at 14/1, and he is who I’m going to take a stab at in the betting markets for my elite-player punt. Koepka has yet to really hit his stride in 2019, but you can’t tell me that he should have a higher number than Rickie Fowler (9/1) and the same number as Sergio Garcia (14/1) in this field. Koepka doesn’t have a great track record at this event with an MC in '17, T26 in '16, and T51 in '15, but he is clearly a different kind of player than he was back then and I back him to rebound on the greens after having one of the worst putting weeks of his entire career last week at WGC-Mexico.
Webb Simpson 20/1
PGA National is a great layout for a pure ball striker such as Simpson, and he provides some nice value in both the outright winner and top-10 market at his 20/1 number. Simpson has hung around the top of the leaderboard here last season en route to a T5 finish. Elite accuracy and greatly improved putting stats in Bermuda greens set up Simpson for a run at his first PGA Tour title since last season’s Players Championship -- an event that shares many similarities to what we’ll see this week.
Harold Varner 100/1
I’m not loving a lot in the 25/1-80/1 range, so for the value I like the idea of dropping down into the the 100/1-and-over range. Starting out we’ll go with Varner, who has really picked up his consistency this season. This is the type of event/field at which I could see him nabbing his first career victory. Varner’s results at this event aren’t anything to write home event, but he has made his last two cuts here after a missed cut in 2016.
Patton Kizzire 125/1
My favorite punt in the 100/1-and-over range is Kizzire, who is an excellent course fit for PGA National. Kizzire has career wins at Waialae CC and Sea Island, two other short coastal layouts where the wind can get blowing. His best career showing here is a T26, but he enters this week in decent form with four pop-27 finishes in his past six starts.
Other Bets to Consider: Cameron Smith (25/1, +250 T10 EW), Alex Noren (33/1, +350 T10 EW), Chesson Hadley (+1100 T10), Anirban Lahiri (+1600 T10), Joaquin Niemann (150/1)