The traditional fantasy football waiver wire is a crapshoot. Even Bill from HR can beat you to Jerome Ford and Isaiah Likely if he has a higher waiver claim or FAAB budget and saw that Nick Chubb and Mark Andrews were hurt as he flipped past the sports section to find his horoscope.
If you want to guarantee you’ll grab your preferred potential league-winner, you need to be a week early, and our Waiver Wire Watchlist can help. Why give up valuable waiver position or a significant portion of your FAAB dollars to claim a player when you could simply use an open roster spot to grab him off the free agent wire for nothing right now before he becomes the latest must-have add?
Every Thursday this season, I, with the help of FTN's advanced stats and projection models, will identify players whose short-term matchups make them compelling streamers and whose workload and efficiency trends have them poised for fantasy breakouts — all before Bill has ever heard their names.
MORE FROM FTN: Industry-leading fantasy analysis and NFL projections
Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Watchlist: Week 1
Reminder: This list was put together in the lead-in to Week 1, looking forward to the players who could be popular waiver wire targets ahead of Week 2. If you have a roster spot to play with, these are free agent options you could grab early to beat the waiver buzz.
All these players are below 50 percent ownership on one of ESPN or Yahoo unless otherwise specified.
Week 1 Fantasy Waiver Wire Watchlist: QB
Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (30% owned in Yahoo leagues/33% in ESPN leagues)
Reason: Opponent schedule
Time Frame: Weeks 1-2
Mayfield enjoyed a career passing season in his first year in Tampa in 2023 and will likely eventually see regression with his outlier efficiency on third downs. However, that regression likely won't come in Weeks 1 and 2 when the veteran faces the Commanders and Lions. Both teams were top four boosters of passing fantasy points at an estimated 6.0 and 2.1 extra points per game, respectively, last season. The Commanders were 32nd in pass defense DVOA — FTN’s comprehensive and opponent-adjusted measure of defensive efficiency. The Lions were 16th in pass defense but first in run defense, a skew that spurred their opponents to pass more than normal.
Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks (13%/32%)
Reason: Workload trends
Time Frame: Rest of season
Smith missed being a top-20 QB in fantasy points per game in 2023, but he ranked an appealing 14th in fantasy points per snap. The difference? Pace. The Seahawks averaged 58.5 offensive plays per game, the lowest in football, and 4.6 fewer than an average team. New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb is an NFL unknown after a recent stint at the University of Washington, but chances are decent he will push to play faster than his predecessor Shane Waldron. That speed-up should help Smith in fantasy by way of volume.
SN's WEEK 1 FANTASY ADVICE: Sleepers | Busts | Start 'em, sit 'em
Week 1 Fantasy Waiver Wire Watchlist: RB
JK Dobbins, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (77%/46%)
Reason: Opponent schedule
Time Frame: Weeks 1-2
Dobbins would be a no-brainer start if his old-new teammate Gus Edwards missed another week or two with the undisclosed injury that cost him his preseason. Even if Edwards plays in Week 1, Dobbins is a decent flex bet against the Raiders and Panthers to start the season. Both teams were top eight boosters of running back rushing fantasy points at an estimated 2.3 and 4.9 extra points per game, respectively in 2023. With star edge rusher Maxx Crosby, the Raiders defended the pass (eighth in DVOA) better than the run (18th). The Panthers had the bottom-ranked run defense even before their offseason defensive purge.
Ray Davis, RB, Buffalo Bills (14%/18%)
Reason: Opponent schedule
Time Frame: Week 1 (and stash for rest of season)
The Bills are more settled with an incumbent in James Cook at running back than they are at wide receiver, but their Week 1 Cardinals counterparts ranked 30th in run defense DVOA in 2023 and boosted opposing backfields by 3.8 rushing fantasy points per game. Rookie runner Davis has the size and toughness to complement the more elusive Cook and earn a fantasy-relevant carry share. Week 2 could be too late to add Davis if he takes advantage of a plush Week 1 matchup with 50 or more yards and a rushing touchdown.
SN's WEEK 1 FANTASY RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Week 1 Fantasy Waiver Wire Watchlist: WR
Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills (47%/59%)
Reason: Efficiency trends
Time Frame: Rest of season
The Bills receiver pecking order is one of the major mysteries of 2024, but Shakir may have offered a clue in his 55.0-percent receiving DVOA in 2023, the highest among wide receivers with 45 or more targets. That metric means the Bills were 55 percent more productive on offense when Shakir was targeted than an average team was on a typical offensive play. It’s a reasonable bet that Josh Allen will continue to do what worked in the second half of last season, especially with his new teammate Curtis Samuel suffering from a turf toe injury.
Week 1 Fantasy Waiver Wire Watchlist: TE
Ben Sinnott, TE, Washington Commanders (7%/8%)
Reason: Opponent schedule
Time Frame: Weeks 1-4
The rookie Sinnott might need to work his way up Washington’s tight end depth chart this season, but his team’s September schedule may be too appealing to leave him on the waiver wire. The Commanders draw the Bucs, Bengals, and Cardinals in the first month, and all three were upper-third boosters of tight end fantasy points per game last year. The Bengals and Cardinals were bottom four in defensive DVOA vs. tight ends, and the Bucs allowed the most targets per game to tight ends.
Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens (8%/21%)
Reason: Efficiency trends
Time Frame: Rest of season
Likely faces a possible 260-pound impediment to his Year 3 breakout in the form of perennial top-four fantasy tight end and teammate Mark Andrews. However, last season, Likely produced a 37.7-percent receiving DVOA that was second highest among tight ends with more than 40 targets — behind just George Kittle (38.6 percent) and nearly double Andrews (22.1 percent) in third place at the position. The Ravens flourished when they targeted Likely in 2023, and you can bank on innovative offensive coordinator Todd Monken to use more 12 personnel with Likely and Andrews in 2024 to get the team’s best three receivers on the field together.
Tyler Conklin, TE, New York Jets (38%/20%)
Reason: Efficiency trends
Time Frame: Rest of season
Conklin has provided the consistency fantasy managers crave with exactly 87 targets each of the past three seasons, but he has undermined his top eight tight end target total from the past two years with a modest three touchdowns. He also suffered a position-leading 3.0-touchdown shortfall relative to his 6.0 expected scores. Enter Aaron Rodgers. If Rodgers can return healthy from his torn Achilles last September, then he should spur more red-zone trips and throw more accurate red-zone passes than his predecessor Zach Wilson. Those gains should round Conklin into a complete contributor and possible TE1 for fantasy.
