With the prominence of PPR leagues through the roof, odds are decent that you're playing in at least one point-per-reception league, even if it's only half-point PPR. If you're also playing in a standard league, that can lead to wildly different sets of rankings, sleepers, and cheat sheets. You have to really be on top on which players are more likely to bust in PPR leagues heading into 2019.
The thing is, that can be difficult. Someone will still wind up with a bruising running back in their lineup because they're decent bets for TDs, but boy is it frustrating to see him trot off the field on every third down. This list can help you avoid moments like that. These players aren't totally worthless in PPR leagues, but they figure to lose at least some value.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2019 Fantasy Cheat Sheet
2019 Fantasy Football: Fallers in PPR rankings
Biggest drop-offs
RB: Derrick Henry, Titans; Nick Chubb, Browns; Leonard Fournette, Jaguars; Sony Michel, Patriots; Jordan Howard, Eagles
Derrick Henry has two things working against him in PPR leagues. One, the Titans have a dynamic receiving back in Dion Lewis. Two, Henry just doesn’t do anything with the passes he catches. In 16 games last year, Henry caught 15 balls for 99 yards. That’s just super unexciting and adds almost zero value to his rushing. Nick Chubb is a bit better pass catcher, but he still doesn’t make plays once he’s caught the ball, averaging a pedestrian 7.5 yards per reception in 2018. And until the Browns move disgruntled Duke Johnson, Jr., he’s the top pass-catching back in Cleveland. (And Kareem Hunt will be in the second half of the season.)
Sony Michel falls into the same boat as the guys above: James White is simply a better pass-catching back in New England, and the Patriots play to their personnel as much as anyone, leading to Michel’s seven total catches in 2018. Jordan Howard was never a good receiver in Chicago. That’s part of what made Tarik Cohen so important last year. With the Eagles signing Darren Sproles, Howard figures to get virtually no passing-down work in 2019.
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Leonard Fournette wasn’t a good pass-catcher dating back to college when he dominated at LSU, as he caught just 41 balls in three seasons. He’s averaged 2.8 catches per game across his NFL career -- better, but not really a plus.
2019 PPR RANKINGS:
Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | Top 200
WR: Calvin Ridley, Falcons; Tyler Lockett, Seahawks; DeSean Jackson, Eagles; Robby Anderson, Jets
Calvin Ridley checks in as for us as a top-15 standard league WR, but he can’t be that high in PPR as the second target in the Atlanta offense. The volume of catches simply won’t be there if Julio Jones receives many more throws. That’s just math. As for Tyler Lockett, he’s a deep-route runner, as is true for many of these drop-off WRs. That makes him more boom-or-bust, as 16.9 yards per catch is nice but not as much in the eight 2018 games that Lockett caught three or fewer passes.
DeSean Jackson fits on this list every year because a player who’s led the NFL multiple times in yards per reception basically has to have more standard league value. His best skill is rewarded more in standard leagues than in PPR formats. Robby Anderson is an up-and-coming burner who’ll have big weeks with Sam Darnold throwing deep but other quiet ones when the connection isn’t there.
2019 STANDARD RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | D/ST | Kicker | Top 200
TE: George Kittle, 49ers; O.J. Howard, Buccaneers
George Kittle remains the No. 3 TE on both our standard and PPR boards, but he really has no argument for No. 2 in the PPR format. Zach Ertz’s 28 more catches in 2018 is a trend that’s likely to continue. Kittle gains a higher portion of his value from yards after the catch, something that adds no relative value in PPR.
In Tampa Bay’s offense, O.J. Howard operates more like a deep-ball wide receiver. His 16.6 yards per catch led all tight ends with double-digit catches in 2018. Like Hill and Hilton above him, though, when so much of his value comes from yardage, he’s bound to be at least slightly less overall value in PPR, though given the nature of the position, his positional ranking is roughly the same.
FANTASY SLEEPERS:
8 QBs | 14 RBs | 11 WRs | 11 TEs | 6 D/STs | One from each team
Fantasy Football 2019: PPR Busts
Surprise drop-offs
RB: Marlon Mack, Colts; ; Peyton Barber, Buccaneers; Lamar Miller, Texans
Marlon Mack isn’t the best receiving back in Indianapolis; that’s Nyheim Hines. So, no matter what Mack brings to the table as a pass-catcher, he’ll always be behind Hines. Tampa Bay threw more than anyone in football last year, yet Peyton Barber caught a rather boring 20 catches for an extremely unexciting 92 yards (4.6 yards per catch). Barber is the type who will be a bruiser for the Buccaneers but not a playmaker out of the backfield. Backup Ronald Jones can't catch either, so there's an opening for a good receiving back in this offense. Lamar Miller might not have quite as big a drop-off as these others, but he caught just 25 passes last year, not enough to move the needle in PPR.
WR: Tyreek Hill, Chiefs; T.Y. Hilton, Colts; Tyrell Williams, Raiders; John Brown, Bills; Marvin Jones, Lions
Hill and Hilton are two of the best WRs in the game and aren’t bad players to own in any format. But their end-of-season ranking in catches in 2018 was lower than their final ranking in points. That differential shows that they’re picking up a larger proportion of their points elsewhere than other players, meaning they have to fall off a bit in PPR.
Tyrell Williams is somewhat of an unknown in a new situation in Oakland. He’s also a big-play wideout (16.3 career yards per catch) who hasn’t received enough consistent targets in his career (less than 70 each of the past two seasons) to do more PPR damage. And John Brown fits that bill, too. He’s actually only caught 50 percent of the passes targeted to him in his NFL career, much too low a rate to maximize PPR value.
Marvin Jones has always been a touchdown threat dating back to his younger days in Cincinnati. He's definitely more of a down-the-field option, though. He led the NFL in yards per catch in 2017, showing how he can still be valuable in standard leagues. It's just a natural drop-off for PPR formats when more of your value comes from yardage than the average WR.
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TE: Jared Cook, Saints; Ian Thomas, Panthers
Jared Cook is sort of like a poor man’s O.J. Howard. Cook has an above-average yards per reception in the TE realm. It’s also not obvious if he’ll get the same target share in New Orleans as he did in Oakland, where he had become one of Derek Carr’s favorites. If the ball keeps going so frequently in Michael Thomas’s direction, Cook will fall off.
Ian Thomas finds his way onto this list more due to opportunity. His late-season run in 2018 makes him appealing from a talent standpoint, but as long as Greg Olsen is around and healthy, Thomas won’t get the lion’s share of the TE targets. No big target numbers inevitably mean similarly disappointing catch numbers.
Fantasy Football 2019: Changing Rankings for PPR
Not as big of a drop-off as you might think
RB: Todd Gurley, Rams; Joe Mixon, Bengals; Josh Jacobs, Raiders; Mark Ingram, Ravens; Adrian Peterson, Redskins
The Rams like throwing to their running backs. There's not an obvious pass-catcher behind Todd Gurley. Yet it feels like if he loses reps somewhere due to the "arthritic component" in his knee, it might be on passing downs. We've got him lower in PPR formats with his third-down role being less sure.
I was sure Joe Mixon fit on the drop-off list, but he actually caught 43 passes last year. The presence of Giovani Bernard didn’t take away from the fact that Mixon is just fine out of the backfield. He still might move down the ranks in PPR but not to the extent it might seem. Josh Jacobs averaged 12.4 yards per catch in his final Alabama season and multiple reports indicate he’s a good pass-protector, meaning he can get onto the field enough on passing downs to be just fine in PPR despite his 5-10, 219-pound frame. Jacobs won't necessarily see the field on obvious passing downs, when Jalen Richard shines for Oakland, but he's got enough pass-catching ability to get receptions on the more neutral downs he is on the field.
Mark Ingram took advantage of teaming with Drew Brees for three seasons of at least 46 catches. The perception of Ingram as a ground-and-pound guy stems in part because the Saints had Darren Sproles and Alvin Kamara to run pass routes out of the backfield. Just because Ingram couldn’t beat that doesn’t mean he was a bad receiver. The same is true for Adrian Peterson, who might not catch tons of balls but might be on the field enough as a security blanket for either a mediocre or rookie QB in Washington. Peterson's role does depend on the health of Chris Thompson and Derrius Guice, both of whom are healthy right now, but Peterson is still a fine PPR player when he's on the field.
DRAFT STRATEGY AND RANKINGS TIERS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST
WR: Alshon Jeffery, Eagles; Allen Robinson, Bears; Christian Kirk, Cardinals
This trio provide deep options for their quarterbacks, just as a bunch of names above do. The reason they don’t drop off as much, though, comes from the more consistent targets they’ll receive. It’s hard to knock these three too far down rankings if you can count on the ball coming their way. Maybe they’ll catch one fewer on average per game than an equivalent PPR riser, but their yardage per catch pretty much cancels that out.
TE: Evan Engram, Giants; David Njoku, Browns
Evan Engram looks a lot like a big WR, which is how the Giants play him at times. That forms his perception as a big-play TE, but in reality, his 70.3-percent catch rate in 2018 suggests more of a balanced receiver. Engram’s target share should only rise, too, with the loss of Odell Beckham, Jr., which should raise his catch numbers accordingly.
David Njoku fits right into the public-perception Engram mold but caught at least three passes in each of the last six weeks of the 2018 season. He won’t have an overwhelming role increase with OBJ in Cleveland, but he should remain a steady source of some catches each week.