Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 10-team PPR experts league

The dog days of summer are almost over. There are college football games this weekend, and the NFL will follow soon after. We had to sneak in one more mock draft before we moved on to Week 1 preparation, though. Our rankings and sleepers have shifted over the past few weeks, so the way this draft played out is fairly different than the mocks from earlier this month. As always, there's plenty to talk about here, from players who went too early to the various draft strategies you can employ depending on your pick.

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DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2019 Fantasy Cheat Sheet

Recently, I participated in a mock draft as part of Fantasy Alarm's Mock Draft Army. It was a PPR, 10-team league. I was given the No. 6 pick, putting me in the middle of every round.

PREVIOUS MOCKS: 12-team PPR | 12-team Superflex | 12-team standard

Instead of having too much of a strategy in this draft, I hoped to allow my last month of research and rankings to play out naturally. I didn't open any rankings lists during the draft and instead allowed my gut to carry me more than in a few of my other drafts. As I'll discuss below, I realized pretty early on just how many options there are at basically every pick of a 10-team draft, which forced me to make more tough choices than I felt I had to in my earlier mocks.

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2019 STANDARD RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | D/ST | Kicker | Top 200

Fantasy Mock Draft: 10-team PPR league

David Johnson, Cardinals (Round 1, Pick 6). The first five picks featured the players you'd expect: Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Le'Veon Bell, and Ezekiel Elliott. This spot would've been the right range to select DeAndre Hopkins, but I felt like in a 10-team league with only two WR starters, it was more important to snag another top RB here. I went with Johnson, figuring that he gets a bump in PPR formats working in Kliff Kingsbury's fast-paced offense as a good receiving back. If Kyler Murray struggles, the Cardinals might just end up leaning on Johnson even more.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers (Round 2, Pick 15). Hours before taking part in this mock draft, I'd written this story about our top-tier WRs and what differentiates them. I realized just how much potential Smith-Schuster has if his targets increase even a bit with Antonio Brown out of town (which they should). So, at this point in the evening, I was all aboard the JuJu hype train and happy to select him as my WR1.

Adam Thielen, Vikings (Round 3, Pick 26). I've been a bit down on Thielen in the preseason after Stefon Diggs out-targeted him in 2018's second half, but the reality is that Thielen is an odds-on favorite to be a top-10 WR this season. Getting him here allowed me to fill out my two starting wideout spots with top-10 guys without using my first round pick on a wide receiver, which feels like good value to me.

2019 PPR RANKINGS:
Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | Top 200

Tevin Coleman, 49ers (Round 4, Pick 35). The doubts about Coleman this preseason seem unfounded to me. He should be the main back in a pretty good offense. Coleman became the first example to me of how this 10-team draft seemed to differ from the 12-team mocks I'd done. Each pick, it seemed as if I had the option to choose between a more consensus pick or just to take my tout. I don't think one guy in my queue got taken ahead of where I wanted him all draft. Maybe I could've waited on Coleman a round longer here, but none of the other options on the board were guys I wanted on my team more than him. Chris Carson and David Montgomery went soon after him, but I simply wanted Coleman, so I picked him.

Julian Edelman, Patriots (Round 5, Pick 46). Edelman has averaged more than six catches per game in each of the past five seasons, showing how much of a PPR stud he is. His targets may even increase this year with no more Rob Gronkowski (although the Pats might also opt to just run more). As was the case with the Coleman pick, I had a lot of choices here, but this time I went with the obvious one in Edelman even though he's not an especially huge favorite of mine. 

Calvin Ridley, Falcons (Round 6, Pick 55). Ridley is the favorite of everyone at SN this season. Based on his draft slot, he won't even be a Week 1 starter for me, but that doesn't bother me. He could grow into an every-week starter by the end of the season. His 2018 was inconsistent, but we can chalk that up to a learning experience in which he still posted more than 800 yards. It's exciting to think about what he might be able to pull off in Year 2. 

Austin Ekeler, Chargers (Round 7, Pick 66). There's really not a blueprint for how long you can afford to wait on Ekeler. He should get the majority of the snaps at RB in L.A. as long as Melvin Gordon isn't playing (and Ekeler can catch passes well, too). I wanted to get a third RB at this pick, and I was between Ekeler and Kalen Ballage, two players who are essentially talented fill-ins. Ballage's inability to break tackles and the likelihood he'll have less time as the No. 1 made Ekeler the logical selection for me here. 

DRAFT STRATEGY AND RANKINGS TIERS: 
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST

Derrius Guice, Redskins (Round 8, Pick 75). There were still plenty of strong QBs still on the board, and secondary TE studs Evan Engram and O.J. Howard had already been selected. Taking a shot on Guice and the health of his knee made sense here. We've been waiting a long time to see Guice play in a real NFL game, and so beyond the injury risk, there's reason to worry that his hype outweighs the cost -- not this cost, though. This is good value.

Will Fuller, Texans (Round 9, Pick 86). Houston is going to throw the ball a ton this year, and as long as Fuller's healthy, he should be a big beneficiary. He averaged 4.6 catches and 71 yards per game in 2018. Attention on DeAndre Hopkins will inevitably give Fuller room to work, and he's only going to get better. He checks in as the fifth receiver on my roster, which is a good spot to stomach his injury risk and make a play on his upside.

David Njoku, Browns (Round 10, Pick 95). This is the type of luxury pick you can make in a 10-team league. In a 12-team league, I might be more worried about depth (and Njoku would probably be gone by the 10th round), but here I felt confident enough in my depth to fill my starting TE spot. I've also been big on the Cleveland offense all offseason, and after not getting any of the main components, I'll take the shot that Njoku is a beneficiary at least in touchdowns.

Russell Wilson, Seahawks (Round 11, Pick 106). I was shocked to see Wilson still on the board after nine quarterbacks had already been taken. My strategy is usually to wait on quarterbacks to acquire depth, but it feels like I did that in the first nine rounds. The relative value Wilson comes at with this pick, along with the fact that I'm confident in the RBs/WRs I've already taken, made this an easy choice. If other people are concerned about Doug Baldwin's retirement, that's fine, but Wilson is too good a player to do anything but be a top-10 passer in fantasy. I'm also really excited to see his partnership with Tyler Lockett increase, as Wilson had a perfect 158.3 passer rating when throwing to Lockett in 2018. 

Nyheim Hines, Colts (Round 12, Pick 115). I avoided picking pass-catching running backs on purpose up until this point because I've done that in other PPR settings and saw names like Tarik Cohen and James White fall further than they should in this mock. Hines has a safe floor (although Andrew Luck's potential absence could affect his value some), and having a bench running back who should contribute in all 16 weeks of the season isn't a bad deal.

Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals (Round 13, Pick 126). There are a couple ways to spin this. One: There was a Hall-of-Fame-caliber, No. 1 WR who plays in a pass-happy, fast-paced offense available to me in the 13th round. Two: There was a declining, possibly overrated WR available to me in the 13th round after nine other drafters passed him over again and again. I lean more toward the former, as I think Fitzgerald should have no problem reeling in 80 or more catches this season and still providing a red-zone threat for Kyler Murray.

Ty Montgomery, Jets (Round 14, Pick 135). We reached the portion of the draft here where I wanted to take some players who intrigue me. Montgomery's been talked up as a do-everything guy for New York, and he's played on the field with Le'Veon Bell during training camp. I expect the Jets' offense to move the ball pretty well behind Sam Darnold, so a player who qualifies at RB but should catch a lot of passes has a chance to be a sneaky FLEX play.

FANTASY SLEEPERS: 
8 QBs | 14 RBs | 11 WRs | 11 TEs | 6 D/STs | One from each team

Chase Edmonds, Cardinals (Round 15, Pick 146). I don't like handcuffing my running backs, but with 11 bench spots in this league, I figured it couldn't hurt to back up my first-round pick. Edmonds is a young player who's shown flashes in limited opportunity, to the point where I feel like I would use him if Johnson went down.

Golden Tate, Giants (Round 16, Pick 155). Tate's another player that the larger benches provided me an opportunity to take. There are six WRs on my roster ahead of him, so I won't have to worry about needing Tate in the season's first four weeks as he sits out with suspension. Upon his return, he'll be one of the top options in the Giants' offense and has always provided utility in PPR formats.

Josh Allen, Bills (Round 17, Pick 166). With shorter benches, I would have been content to let Wilson be my only QB, but with the extended draft I grabbed Allen. I like the potential of his upside as a rushing QB with a strong arm. A lot of it might be ugly, coming as the Bills trail and look to make it back into games, but Allen's shown a good relationship with new receiver Cole Beasley, a short-game weapon he didn't have in his rookie season. It's hard to imagine ever starting Allen over Wilson, but he could turn himself into one of the more attractive backups in fantasy.

Dare Ogunbowale, Buccaneers (Round 18, Pick 175). On paper, Ogunbowale is the third RB on Tampa Bay's depth chart. He's behind uninspiring options in Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones, though, and Ogunbowale has shone in the preseason. The rookie from Wisconsin seems likely to at least get a few cracks early, and if he plays how he has thus far, he could find a role in a big-play offense. With the deep benches and picking him this late, it won't be any hurt to me if I drop Ogunbowale early for the next big thing on the waiver wire. For now, he felt like a worthwhile flier.

Patriots D/ST (Round 19, Pick 186). Ten defenses had been selected ahead of the Pats even though we rank New England as the No. 4 D/ST. They have the easiest schedule in the league, based on Vegas over/unders, so if you like playing matchups, the Patriots should be playable most weeks.

Saints K (Round 20, Pick 195). This mock draft had owners select team kickers as opposed to individuals. Wil Lutz is basically who I get here, and he was the highest remaining kicker on our board at this pick. In addition, New Orleans' offense is good enough that if Lutz got hurt, whoever showed up would be usable in a pinch.

By the end of the draft, this is what my team looked like:

Starters

QB Russell Wilson, Seahawks
RB David Johnson, Cardinals
RB Tevin Coleman, 49ers
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers
WR Adam Thielen, Vikings
TE David Njoku, Browns
FLEX Julian Edelman, Patriots
D/ST Patriots
K Saints (Wil Lutz)

Bench

WR Calvin Ridley, Falcons
RB Austin Ekeler, Chargers
RB Derrius Guice, Redskins
WR Will Fuller V, Texans
RB Nyheim Hines, Colts
WR Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
RB Ty Montgomery, Jets
RB Chase Edmonds, Cardinals
WR Golden Tate, Giants
QB Josh Allen, Bills
RB Dare Ogunbowale, Buccaneers

I feel like it would be hard to get to the end of a 10-team draft and not feel good about your team. So, in short: I feel good about my team. The biggest place that shows itself is in my apparent depth. I might never have to play a guy like Larry Fitzgerald all year, but if I have to, I'd feel fine about it. I was able to get two upside-laden RBs in Austin Ekeler and Derrius Guice who could play big FLEX roles for me as the season goes on. One of our favorite values this year, Calvin Ridley, doesn't even have to begin the year in my starting lineup. 

I'm not even sure I'd go back and make a pick differently after looking at the board. Maybe I would've taken a second TE instead of Ogunbowale, but that position is a dumpster fire this year anyway, so the waiver wire is as likely to produce good options as anything else.

SEASON PREVIEW PODCASTS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST

ADP Stock Watch

This section's existence came about to talk about where Josh Gordon got picked, since his status has changed since the last mock drafts I did. I'll also take a look at a couple other players who stood out for me in where they were drafted.

Josh Gordon, Patriots (Round 8, Pick 76). The two WRs selected before Gordon were A.J. Green and Dede Westbrook, and the two selected most immediately after were Corey Davis and Will Fuller. Davis is definitely a safer selection than Gordon, but I can see buying into Gordon's upside in the eighth round. He was his owner's fourth WR, so he wouldn't even need to be a Week 1 starter.

Kalen Ballage, Dolphins (Round 7, Pick 67). Ballage will start in Miami if Kenyan Drake misses any time, and his measurables are impressive. He went ahead of Royce Freeman, Darrell Henderson, Drake and Derrius Guice, among others. It's not a terrible value, but Ballage is also a flawed rusher who was last among qualifying rushers in broken-tackle percentage last year.

Kyler Murray, Cardinals (Round 13, Pick 130). Is one bad preseason game enough to tank Murray's value this much? He'd been so highly drafted all preseason, but in this mock, he went after Kirk Cousins. (We at SN agree with that, but not the public at large) I think this does show that people are a little more skeptical of Murray and Kliff Kingsbury's offense than they were a few weeks ago.

D.K. Metcalf, Seahawks (Round 19, Pick 182). Metcalf underwent a minor knee scope, and his status for Week 1 is uncertain. He's gone much higher in every other mock I've done, though, and I was surprised the physically impressive rookie fell off this much. While I'm not high on him personally, if he's he No. 2 in Seattle, he's probably worth picking ahead of such luminaries as Andy Isabella.