Landing the first pick in fantasy football drafts can be a blessing and a curse. It's the most anxiety-fueling position to be in, because you have all the pressure on you to pick the best player out of the entire player pool available. And, as we have seen in recent years, consensus No. 1 picks have been letting us down...a lot.
But this year — we're confident to say — is different. And we're here to warn you: DO NOT OVERTHINK JUSTIN JEFFERSON IF YOU HAVE THE FIRST OVERALL PICK.
The old adage remains that you do not win your fantasy league with your first-round pick. The same obviously applies to the first overall pick. However, you can absolutely lose your fantasy league by making the incorrect No. 1 pick. And choosing anyone besides J-Jets would be an incorrect decision.
Sure, we contemplated Austin Ekeler, the No. 1 PPR scorer among all RBs, WRs, and TEs last season. We also considered Christian McCaffrey, who maintained the highest PPR points per game in the NFL throughout his 11 games with the 49ers after they traded for him. Hell, we even thought about tight end Travis Kelce, the best pass-catching TE in history, and Ja'Marr Chase, who Yahoo actually projects to score more PPR points than Jefferson.
But in the end, we kept coming back to Jefferson as the safest No. 1 pick with the biggest floor and ceiling in PPR formats. Below, we will discuss why we ultimately arrived at that decision.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2023 Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Why Justin Jefferson should be the No. 1 pick in fantasy
WAR
Let's face it — everybody and their mom has started to realize that running backs have less value than wideouts in PPR formats. Hell, receivers have been going ahead of RBs in standard formats this year, too! The drop from the best WRs at the top of drafts to the end of the second round is vastly greater than the drop-off from the best running backs to the RBs you'll find at picks 20-24.
Take a look at FantasyPros' consensus ADP if you don't believe me. Right now, Jefferson is the bonafide 1.1, while Amon-Ra St. Brown is listed 2.10 in 10-team leagues and Chris Olave is listed 2.12 in 12-team leagues. Take a look at the steep decline in 2022 PPR points and 2023 projected PPR points between Jefferson and both ARSB and Olave:
| Player (ADP) | 2022 PPR | 2023 Proj. |
| Justin Jefferson (1) | 368.6 | 317.8 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (20) | 267.6 | 261.1 |
| Chris Olave (24) | 198.2 | 233.4 |
Now take a look at Ekeler and McCaffrey — the first and second RBs off the board, on average — as compared to Tony Pollard (being drafted at the end of the second round in PPRs) and Rhamondre Stevenson (being drafted 30th overall):
| Player (ADP) | 2022 PPR | 2023 Proj. |
| Christian McCaffrey (2) | 356.4 | 310.5 |
| Austin Ekeler (4) | 372.7 | 307 |
| Tony Pollard (20) | 248.8 | 264.4 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (30) | 249.1 | 228.3 |
As you can see, Jefferson scored 170 more PPR points than Olave last season — so opting to draft a RB at No. 1 overall could ultimately mean you end up with a -170 differential at WR1.
In contrast, the drop from CMC to Stevenson was just 107.3 points — and 'Mondre has been getting drafted in the beginning of the third round of 10-team leagues! The wins above replacement you get with Jefferson over the wideouts you will find in the 20-24 range is light-years ahead of the WAR you get with CMC or Ek over Pollard and Stevenson.
2023 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
Durability
You don't just get a higher floor and ceiling with Jefferson, you also get a wideout who has yet to miss a game in his NFL career (knock on wood!). Three seasons in, his attendance is a perfect 50-for-50 in the regular season. Somebody get this dude a golden apple to go with his Rookie of the Year, Offensive Player of the Year, All-Pro, and three Pro Bowls.
In comparison, CMC, Ekeler, and even Chase look like Cavity Sam from the game Operation. Sure, McCaffrey and Ek both played all 17 games last season — but CMC played just 10 games total between the start of the 2020 season and the end of the 2021 campaign. Similarly, Ekeler missed 15 total games between 2019 and 2021. And Chase missed five games in his sophomore season just last year.
Our friends at DraftSharks list Jefferson as a "medium risk" to get injured this season, with just a 40 percent chance of injury and a projected 1.4 games missed. Chase, meanwhile, has a "very high risk" designation with an 86 percent chance of getting hurt. Tyreek Hill, being drafted as WR3 across most PPR formats, is also "very high" on their list with a whopping 91 percent chance of getting hurt.
Wide receivers typically get hurt less than RBs — they don't endure the kind of wear and tear that backs regularly deal with on the front lines. But Jefferson is like a cyborg, seeing the highest usage of all wideouts and still not even coming close to missing a game. His impeccable attendance record is just another reason he's head-and-shoulders above the rest of the player pool.
2023 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
Consistency
Jefferson has been consistently great since the moment he entered the league, and he has consistently improved with each new season. At 24 years old, he may still be entering his prime — which should be a terrifying concept to the rest of the league (especially defensive coordinators). We might be talking about fantasy dominance that only Shohei Ohtani and Nikola Jokic have offered over the past decade. And it's conceivable we put Jefferson in the same conversation as former Vikings great Randy Moss sooner than later.
That's no hyperbole, folks. The numbers speak for themselves. Last season, he led the NFL with 128 catches, 1,809 receiving yards, and 106.4 air yards per game. Among the 30 wideouts who garnered 100-plus targets last season, Jefferson finished third in PFF receiving grade, second in yards per route run (2.62), and first in yards after catch (632).
Jefferson has finished as the yards per touch leader in each of the past two seasons, and he averages 14.9 yards per catch throughout his three-year career. He also has 26 TDs in that span, having notched nine scores last season.
Need all this translated to fantasy numbers? We've got you covered. He averaged 21.7 points per game last season. with nine top-five finishes and three other games inside the top 24. He finished 27.4 PPR points ahead of Hill and 33.1 points ahead of Davante Adams. Stefon Diggs (321.2) and CeeDee Lamb (301.6) were the only other two WRs to even eclipse 300 PPR points.
No skill-position player has been as consistently dominant as Jefferson over the past three years, and he and the Vikings offense just keep getting better and better. And with tight end T.J. Hockenson happily secured to a long-term deal — and rookie stud receiver Jordan Addison now in purple — the sky's the limit for J-Jets.
2023 AUCTION VALUES (Standard & PPR):
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Overall
Usage
Kirk Cousins' path to elite QB numbers is paved in Jefferson targets — a lot of them. The 24-year-old led the NFL in targets last season (176), and he easily led the Vikings in target share (28.6%), air yards share (38.4%), and weighted opportunity rating (0.67). Those numbers didn't come close to dropping even after Hockenson landed in Minnesota via midseason trade.
Since entering the NFL in 2020, Jefferson ranks third in catches (324), first in receiving yards (4.825), ninth in receiving TDs (25), and second in total PPR points (973.3) among all WRs. He's the man, not just in Minneapolis but in all of fantasy land — and if you don't pick him if given the opportunity, you may never let yourself live it down.
So, like we said earlier, don't overthink it — sometimes the most obvious decision is the best one. This isn't a bandwagon — it's just a ton of people understanding that Justin Jefferson is the best fantasy force in football, and as the numbers prove, it's not even really all that close.
