The 2023 NFL offseason had an average number of new head coaching hires, as five teams made changes at the position. That was just half of the 10 new hires from the previous season, but there still figures to be a lot of scheme and personnel differences that fantasy football owners need to be aware of.
Why? Because there are a whopping 16 new offensive coordinator hires that will reshape the landscape of the NFL. These changes in play-calling and offensive philosophy will impact positional rankings, as well as potential sleepers and busts.
The most notable among the new head coaches Sean Payton, who will look to bring order to Denver after the Nathaniel Hackett experiment proved to be a disaster. As for Hackett, he will be prominently placed as the Jets' offensive coordinator, and he will be tasked with bringing Aaron Rodgers back to MVP heights again in 2023.
Of course, it's impossible to know which coaches will fail and succeed in their new positions, as fans have learned from retread burnouts and upside candidates like Hackett falling flat on their respective faces. Still, fantasy football owners can glean important information from the coaches' tendencies in previous stops that can help to shape their draft strategy. The most notable of these are the run-pass splits that will help determine which skill positions will be positioned to thrive most under the new leadership.
Here's a preview of some of the new head coaches and offensive coordinators that could impact some of fantasy's top producers. To see the full list, click here.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2023 Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Fantasy Football 2023: New NFL head coaches and offensive coordinators
Sean Payton, Broncos HC
As mentioned, Payton was the most notable hire of the 2023 cycle, as he will replace Hackett in Denver and try to rebuild Russell Wilson's confidence after a dreadful season.
The 59-year-old was often able to lead his teams to offensive success in New Orleans, as the team finished top-12 in total offense and points scored in each of his first 14 seasons with the team. Only in 2021 after the retirement of Drew Brees did the offensive numbers regress.
With that said, the Broncos are likely to improve on offense after averaging a league-low 16.9 points per game in 2023. It seems likely that the team will gravitate more toward the pass in 2023 than it did last season when it ranked 16th in the NFL in pass-play percentage (58.8 percent). Payton's Saints finished top-five in passing attempts in nine of his 15 seasons with the team.
All that's to say that Russell Wilson deserves a stock-up in 2023 because of that potential increase in volume. It would also be a boon to the likes of Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mins, and whoever starts at TE. Meanwhile, Javonte Williams will become a riskier pick, as his volume might not be there due to the shifting demographics of the offense and his recovery from a serious knee injury that may limit him early in the campaign.
2023 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
Eric Bieniemy, Commanders OC
Bieniemy is looking to prove himself away from Andy Reid. That's why he took on a lateral move to coach alongside Ron Rivera in Washington.
The Chiefs consistently ranked in the bottom half of the top 10 in pass-play percentage under Bieniemy. As such, it's safe to assume that Washington will be a bit more aggressive than the team that threw on just 52.8 percent of its plays in 2023 (good for 23rd in the NFL). That will provide Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel with stock-ups.
Of course, there's no guarantee that the Commanders are going to jump all the way up the passing leaderboards. There are still questions remaining about Sam Howell, but if the Commanders creep up to league average in pass-play percentage, he could become a decent DFS sleeper and a potential high-end QB2 thanks to his mobility.
All that said, there's reason for optimism with Washington's passing-game weapons. However, the RBs will need to show their value in pass-catching situations to avoid ending up as mid-tier flex considerations.
2023 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
Shane Steichen, Colts HC
The Colts wanted to be a ground-dominant team in 2022 to take advantage of what many thought were the strengths of their offense: Jonathan Taylor and their offensive line. Injuries and inefficiencies at quarterback prevented that from happening, but the team figures to try to take that approach again in 2023.
Steichen was brought on from the Eagles' coaching tree, something that the Colts have done with each of their past two hires. Philadelphia had a near-even split in terms of passing and running the ball last year and posted the fourth-highest run-play percentage (49.7 percent). The Colts could potentially find success with that type of offense, provided that their offensive line plays well after a down year.
Steichen's presence should ensure that Taylor remains a top-tier volume producer at running back. He can be treated as an RB1 (assuming he doesn't continue to hold out from the team after requesting a trade).
Elsewhere, Anthony Richardson could be involved in the running game thanks to his athleticism. If Steichen gives him some Jalen Hurts-style designed runs or goal-line quarterback sneaks, the No. 4 overall pick could break into the ranks of the low-end QB1s. At the very least, he's an intriguing mid-round pick.
2023 POSITION TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST
Brian Schottenheimer, Cowboys OC
Going from Kellen Moore to Schottenheimer isn't likely to excite many Cowboys fans. In truth, fantasy football owners probably won't be too excited either, as Schottenheimer's presence would seemingly indicate a decline in passing attempts for Dak Prescott.
Schottenheimer has served as an offensive coordinator three different times in the NFL over 12 seasons. Only once has his team landed in the top half of passing attempts for the season. That came when the Jets ranked 13th in pass attempts all the way back in 2008.
Schottenheimer-led teams have tended to run the ball more, as he has coached five teams that have ranked seventh or better in rushing attempts for a season. That would bode well for Tony Pollard, who figures to be a sure-fire RB1 with the potential to pop off as one of fantasy's top players.
2023 FANTASY SLEEPERS
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Each Team
Nathaniel Hackett, Jets OC
Hackett's 15 games in Denver were an absolute disaster, but it's important to note that he got that job in the first place for a reason. He found a lot of success working with Aaron Rodgers and helped lead him to back-to-back MVP campaigns.
Now, he'll be asked to do that again in New York.
Rodgers' first season with the Jets will be about trying to carry the team to a Super Bowl title. If Hackett can recreate the magic they enjoyed together during their three seasons together during which Rodgers won two MVP awards while averaging 4,397 yards, 39 touchdowns, and five interceptions per 17 games played, then New York's passing game should be a boon in fantasy.
That said, the biggest improvement with this offensive change should be efficiency. The Jets had the fourth-highest pass-play percentage last season but didn't find success because of Zach Wilson. Hackett's Packers usually ranked middle-of-the-pack in pass-play percentage, so it's fair to expect a decrease in total passes but an increase in fantasy points per throw (and catch).
Rodgers, Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, and New York's other pass-catching weapons should benefit from this increased efficiency. However, Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook could end up shouldering more carries because of this, too. As such, they deserve small upticks with the fabric of the offense shifting from pass-dominant to a bit more balanced.
MORE: To see the rest of the new head coaches and offensive coordinators for 2023, including Chargers' OC Kellen Moore, Ravens' OC Todd Monken, Panthers' HC Frank Reich, and Patriots' OC Bill O'Brien, click here.
