As the Jackson 5 once sang, "Can you feel it?" It's Christmas week, the fantasy football semifinals are upon us, and we have 11 games on Saturday for a Christmas Eve bonanza of fantasy action. For the fantasy squads still alive, there is no longer any room for error. Every opponent is formidable, and every start 'em, sit 'em decision -- even D/ST -- can make or break your postseason run. So, be sure to check into our Week 16 fantasy defense rankings early and often leading up to your must-win matchup.
Owners with the Bills (@ Bears in Week 16), 49ers (vs. Commanders), Buccaneers (@ Cardinals), Broncos (@ Rams), and Ravens (vs. Falcons) can move on and look ahead to next week by checking our waiver-wire watchlist next Thursday. Proactive owners who checked last week's watchlist already scooped up the Browns (vs. Saints), Titans (vs. Texans), Commanders (@ 49ers), and Chargers (@ Colts) -- all of whom have favorable matchups in a pivotal week. Check your waiver wire to see which ones are still available.
As for the fringe plays, we snuck both sides of the Raiders at Steelers matchup into the back end of our top 10. Vegas has actually scored seven standard D/ST points per week since Week 13, while Kenny Pickett (concussion) has taken 2.6 sacks while throwing one interception per game in his rookie campaign. If he remains out, then Vegas will get a shot at Mitchell Trubisky, who has his own ball-security issues. The Steelers, meanwhile, have not allowed more than 17 offensive points in over a month while amassing seven sacks and three takeaways in that span.
WEEK 16 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | Kickers
If all the squads we just mentioned aren't available, look out for the Lions (@ Panthers). With Jared Goff and an emerging Detroit offense playing lights out, the Lions D has also started to rise to the occasion. In Detroit's 6-1 second-half stretch, Dan Campbell's squad has racked up four double-digit fantasy performances and a per-week average of nine points. They'll face an underwhelming Carolina squad led by Sam Darnold, who took four sacks while leading the Panthers to just 16 offensive points last week.
WEEK 16 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | Kickers
Another D/ST that surprisingly lands among the sleeper options for Week 16 is the Jaguars (@ Jets), who get an extra-special boost if Zach Wilson starts for the injured Mike White (ribs) again. Wilson got sacked four times and tossed an interception against the Lions in Week 15, and New York finished with just 50 total rushing yards. A short week doesn't figure to help him prepare. The Rams (vs. Broncos) also re-enter the D/ST conversation thanks to a home tilt against Brett Rypien or Russell Wilson (concussion) playing behind Denver's shoddy offensive line.
WEEK 16 DFS LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuel
It may seem strange to put your fantasy semifinals fate in the hands of a defense that barely cracked the top 20 of our rankings for much of the 2022 campaign, but you're better off playing a squad with a high ceiling in a plus-matchup than riding a good D in a terrible spot. The Bengals (@ Patriots) and Saints (@ Browns) have enough talent and decent enough matchups to merit starts, but you should probably tread lightly with the Cowboys (vs. Eagles), Patriots (vs. Bengals), and Eagles (@ Cowboys).
WEEK 16 DFS: Best values | Best stacks
We know Bill Belichick has the Patriots playing strong defense once again this season, but Cincinnati has too many weapons. D/STs have averaged around five fantasy points per game against the Bengals this season (fifth fewest) and a measly 2.25 over the past four weeks (sixth fewest). We also have our reservations about starting the Cowboys, who have surrendered 57 combined points to the Texans and Jaguars over the past two weeks. Heading into Week 15, just two teams were allowing fewer fantasy points to D/STs than the Eagles -- and one of them was Dallas. That's why we don't like either D/ST in that matchup, though both have enough talent to produce big plays and pay off if you're dead set on sticking with them. (Update: With Gardner Minshew expected to start for Jalen Hurts, we've moved the Cowboys up into the top 12 and feel better about starting them.)
WEEK 16 FANTASY PICKS: Sleepers | Busts | Start 'em, sit 'em
If you like the feeling of being in the playoffs, avoid the remaining squads in the rankings. The Vikings (@ Giants) might seem like they have a good matchup, but the Giants are fairly efficient and will be able to move the ball against Minnesota. You shouldn't need to dig that deep anyway. There are plenty of high-floor and high-ceiling streaming options, so find the squad that makes the most sense for your team and hope for some big plays.
We'll be updating our fantasy defense rankings throughout the week, so check back for the latest analysis and player movement.
Week 16 fantasy defense rankings
Rank Team
1 Denver Broncos @ Rams
2 Baltimore Ravens vs. Falcons
3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cardinals
4 Buffalo Bills @ Bears
5 San Francisco 49ers vs. Commanders
6 Cleveland Browns vs. Saints
7 Los Angeles Chargers @ Colts
8 Tennessee Titans vs. Texans
9 Washington Commanders @ 49ers
10 Las Vegas Raiders @ Steelers
11 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Raiders
12 Dallas Cowboys vs. Eagles
13 Detroit Lions @ Panthers
14 Jacksonville Jaguars @ Jets
15 Los Angeles Rams vs. Broncos
16 Cincinnati Bengals @ Patriots
17 New Orleans Saints @ Browns
18 New York Giants @ Vikings
19 New York Jets vs. Jaguars
20 New England Patriots vs. Bengals
21 Philadelphia Eagles @ Cowboys
22 Minnesota Vikings vs. Giants
23 Houston Texans @ Titans
24 Arizona Cardinals vs. Buccaneers
25 Green Bay Packers @ Dolphins
26 Carolina Panthers vs. Lions
27 Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seahawks
28 Miami Dolphins vs. Packers
29 Indianapolis Colts vs. Chargers
30 Seattle Seahawks @ Chiefs
31 Atlanta Falcons @ Ravens
32 Chicago Bears vs. Bills
Week 16 defense fantasy projections, rankings from Draft Sharks
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