When it comes to fantasy baseball mock draft season, keeping a close watch on average draft position (ADP) risers and fallers is as paramount to success in your real drafts as looking at rankings or studying cheat sheets. It’s not just about talent or current performance as much as it is how the public views a particular player. You don’t want to grab someone too early if you don’t have to, and if there is an opportunity to wait on a guy, be it an early-round stud or mid-round sleeper, because other owners are souring on him, well, that’s how you gain value.
Let’s take a look at some risers and fallers in ADP using consensus ADP data compiled from Fantrax, RTSports, NFBC and Yahoo from Feb. 19-March 2. We’ll also compare their current ADPs to that of Fantasy Alarm's Mock Draft Army, which has compiled its ADP over a similar period. The Army is a group of fantasy industry writers and their readers who do live mock drafts as part of their prep for their actual drafts.
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Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft: ADP Risers
Players in the top 100
Javier Baez, 2B, Cubs (Current ADP: 44.58 | Change in ADP: +3.96)
Baez regressed in 2019 after his outstanding '18 campaign. His strikeout percentage rose by two percent and despite a similar BABIP, he saw his batting average dip from .290 to .281. His aggregate projections on FanGraphs show an increase in his counting stats over last year due largely to an expectation of his games played rising from 138 to 152 The rise in his ADP appears to be due to the fall of others in a similar range, specifically Jose Altuve, Mike Clevinger, and Yordan Alvarez. He is the No. 9 shortstop off the board, going in the fourth round of 12-team drafts. The Mock Draft Army likes Baez a bit better, drafting him around the 35th overall player.
MORE: Fantasy Alarm 2020 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide
Luis Robert, OF, White Sox (98.97 | +4.04)
Robert is this year’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He is hyped to the hilt -- and you are going to have to pay for him. His ADP over the past two weeks in the NFBC is 76.49, but the Army has him at 108. Why the difference? Robert is going for a premium due to his stolen base potential. He hasn’t had a single at-bat in the majors. He is being taken ahead of Marcell Ozuna, Nicholas Castellanos, and Michael Conforto, among others. Now, none of these players have his speed, but they have all proven they can put up 25-plus homers and drive in 80-plus runs. The Army understands the risk of rookies and have shown restraint by not picking him too early. I think the Army’s ADP is more in line as to where it should be. Let someone else take the risk at the earlier ADP.
Relief Pitchers
Why a generic RP category? Relief pitchers were the top four risers in ADP in this group and occupied the top five spots in the 101-200 ADP category. Have RPs all of a sudden gained value across the board? On average, these nine relievers have risen a half-round each. There was also a group of relievers going in the 211 to 222 range that rose a full round. In the top 100, Roberto Osuna, Aroldis Chapman, Josh Hader, and Kirby Yates all rose to about five spots. In the 101-200 range Hector Neris, Hansel Robles, Edwin Diaz, Archie Bradley, and Sean Doolittle rose around seven slots. I honestly don’t know how to explain the overall rise of all these relief pitchers, but it’s real, so if you usually wait on a closer, you may want to take one a round earlier than you planned. The Army is in lockstep with the current ADPs of the relievers, and this helps validate the trend.
2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers:
Catcher | First | Second | Third | Short | Outfielder | Starter | Each team
Players in the 101-200 range
Tim Anderson, SS, White Sox 104.9 (+4.34)
Anderson had a breakout year last year, leading the majors in batting average at .335. He coupled that with 18 HRs and 17 SBs in just 128 games, making him a major contributor to a lot of fantasy championships. Even with this breakout, he is being taken as the No. 12 SS. The Mock Draft Army’s ADP for Anderson is 115, largely because a BABIP regression is expected after his .400 mark in that category last year (nearly 100 points above the league average). His miniscule walk rate of 2.9 percent gave him the worst BB/K ratio in the majors. Red flags abound. The MDA is seeing them -- why isn’t everyone else?
Nick Castellanos, OF, Reds (108.12 | +6.39)
Castellanos has enjoyed some very good seasons the past three years in Detroit and Chicago. After being traded to the Cubs last year, he hit 16 home runs in just 51 games compared to 11 in 100 games with the Tigers. Now Castellanos moves to the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, and in turn he is moving up draft boards. The Reds lineup also added Mike Moustakas in free agency, giving it a middle of the order consisting of Castellanos, Moustakas, Eugenio Suarez, and Joey Votto. Castellanos will get a lot of RBI opportunities and likely score close to 100 runs. I find myself taking him in the mocks often after the likes of Andrew Benintendi, Ramon Larureano, Luis Robert, and David Dahl are chosen. His move up in ADP is no surprise, and it might rise even more as we approach opening day.
Corey Seager, SS, Dodgers (144.77 | +6.23)
Before his Tommy John surgery, Seager was hailed as the next great hitting shortstop. His Rookie of the Year campaign in 2016 was followed by a solid '17 and then an abbreviated '18 due to his injury. Upon his return last year, Seager performed well and is looking to build on it. He had an 18-percent strikeout rate and a BABIP of .303, which is about the league average. With a little luck, look for him to improve on his '19 numbers. He could be a very good value in the 12th round. With so many shortstops being taken ahead of him, you could wait on the position and pick him up in the 11-12th-round range. His MDA ADP is 135, as the Army appears to be expecting a bit more from Seager than the aggregate.
2020 Fantasy Baseball Rankings:
Catcher | First | Second | Third | Short | Outfield | Starter | Reliever | Top 300
Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft: ADP fallers
Players in the top 100
Mike Clevinger, SP, Indians (Current ADP: 33.83 | Change in ADP -6.76)
Clevinger had arthroscopic knee surgery for a cartilage tear in mid-February and was projected to miss six-to-eight weeks. He is already beginning his throwing program, and as I have said on several occasions, I think he’ll only miss a few starts. He has gone from a second- to a fourth-round pick in most drafts, and I believe he’s a bargain at this price. There are no arm issues here, and a clean-up knee scope will not keep him out long. Buy! Buy! Buy!
Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Reds (67.95 | -5.90)
Suarez is recovering from shoulder surgery for loose cartilage suffered while swimming in the offseason. He hasn’t appeared in a spring training game as of yet, and this is driving his price down. As long as there isn’t much in the way of pain from where the cartilage was torn, his shoulder should rebound fairly quickly. This isn't as serious as rotator cuff or labrum surgery. This is another buying opportunity for someone who bashed 49 home runs last year and drove in over 100 runs for the second consecutive season. With the addition of free agents Mike Moustakas and Nicholas Castellanos, Suarez should continue to produce. Take advantage of this discount and add him in the sixth round.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Yankees (68.45 | -10.62)
Stanton cannot stay healthy. Early this spring, he suffered a grade-1 calf strain and is expected to be out past opening day. There is no word as to a date for his expected return at this time. Stanton only had 72 plate appearances in 18 games last year. When he's healthy he hits, but how many games can we expect him to play? The Army’s ADP is at 77, as its trepidation is high. In the latest mock that took place on March 5, he went No. 88. This could turn out great if you take him in the sixth round or later; then again, it might not.
MORE: Fantasy Alarm 2020 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide
Players in the 101-200 range
Yuli Gurriel, 1B/3B (134.46 | -9.94)
In the wake of the Astros cheating scandal, one would expect a drop in ADP for most of the Astros hitters. Gurriel appears to be the only one who has dropped significantly. Alex Bregman has dropped a bit from late first-round pick to an early second-round choice. The number hasn’t moved much on Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, and Carlos Correa. Why the larger drop for Gurriel? Can we expect the Astros hitters to struggle? Will the players from 2017 be affected more than those who weren’t with the team then? These are all questions that will be answered as the season progresses. The fans have been relentless in Florida, and this will continue as the Astros go on the road once the season starts. If the players weren’t cheating last year as they claim, then any discount you get on an Astros player may be something to take advantage of.
Shohei Ohtani, SP/UTIL (137.98 | -10.52)
Ohtani is progressing with his throwing program, and the Angels announced that he won’t pitch until May. This is the most likely reason for his ADP fall, as early drafters were expecting him to pitch right away. He is an interesting pick, and your league rules will dictate how valuable he’ll be to your team. If your pitching lineup is set only once a week like in the NFBC, declaring him a pitcher will not allow you to get his hitting stats for the week and vice/versa. The MDA also has him as a 14th-round pick with an ADP of 132.
Aristides Aquino, OF, Reds (179.92 | -9.6)
Aquino has been affected by the acquisition of Castellanos, which has made the Reds outfield a crowded situation. Castellanos will be an everyday player. Fighting for playing time will be Aquino, Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel who is recovering from shoulder surgery, and Shogo Akiyama. Aquino took the league by surprise last year by setting several records, hitting home runs at a record pace before coming down to earth. Contributing to his drop has been his 0-for-14 start at the plate in spring training. He is in danger of starting the season in Triple-A so he could get regular at-bats and work on things. Expect a much larger decline in ADP if he is sent down or someone like Senzel is declared one of the full-time outfielders. Aquino had a 27-percent strikeout rate and a low BABIP. This could have contributed to bad luck, but his high fly-ball percentage will make it tougher to improve on his numbers.