A flurry of MLB injuries has affected the average draft position (ADP) of not only the afflicted players but those potential sleepers who may benefit from more playing time. With Tout Wars, the NFBC NY Main Event, and many home fantasy baseball leagues drafting this weekend, we need to stay updated on who the risers and fallers are on your draft boards. However, now that the Coronavirus outbreak will delay the start of the season, those risers and fallers that are caused by injuries may reverse course, so there's a lot to balance here.
The ADP data referenced below is based on this week’s Fantasy Alarm’s Mock Draft Army (MDA) mock drafts, as well as overall MDA ADP and the NFBC ADP from March 1-6 and March 7-11.
MORE: Fantasy Alarm 2020 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide
Justin Verlander Injury: Effects on fantasy baseball draft ADP
Justin Verlander’s lat strain has caused his ADP to fall significantly, as he is expected to miss six-to-eight weeks. This timetable would have him make his debut in late April or early May. He has gone from a late-first/early-second-round pick to a third- to fourth-round pick. Now that the start of the season will be delayed, Verlander might move back up to the early second round.
What is expected to be seen, but which hasn’t really panned out yet, is that there will be some movement in the top pitchers moving up a little bit on people’s draft boards. With some more data, we may see Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty, Stephen Strasburg, and if he isn’t hurt, Max Scherzer, get taken earlier. As they move up, you may see a ripple effect that moves the second- and third-tier pitchers move up also. Verlander’s injury also brought his teammates into light, as we saw some significant ADP movement by Jose Urquidy and Josh James. James was in a battle for the fifth starter, but it seems clear now that he will break camp as a starter. Both saw little movement in their MDA ADP, but the drafters in the NFBC gave them both significant boosts with James rising 110 slots. He is someone you can miss out on if you don’t use a short time period on whatever ADP you may follow during your draft.
2020 Fantasy Baseball Rankings:
Catcher | First | Second | Third | Short | Outfield | Starter | Reliever | Top 300
Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge Injuries: Sleeper Mike Tauchman benefits
The Yankees injury bug was never eradicated from 2019 and has continued into this year. With Judge out with a stress fracture of his rib indefinitely, there has been a big drop in his ADP over the past week as his status is up in the air. Stanton’s ADP has dropped, but it had already been taking a hit because of his calf injury.
The beneficiary of their drops is Mike Tauchman. He has had a 165-ADP rise over the last week. The Army has even moved him higher this week to 264 (up from 292). Clint Frazier still hasn’t come up on the radar, but if it’s announced that he will break camp with the Yankees, which most assume he will, you should see a bounce in his stock. Now, with the potential delayed opening of the season, do Judge and Stanton become less of a risk and move back up into the earlier rounds?
2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers:
Catcher | First | Second | Third | Short | Outfielder | Starter | Each team
Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Jordan Montgomery seeing ADP rise
Montgomery was a long shot to make the Yankees rotation when spring training started. The injuries to James Paxton (back) and Luis Severino (elbow) put him in the mix. Now that he’s having a very good spring with 16 Ks in 11 innings, he’s jumping up everyone’s draft rankings. His only flaw has been he’s given up four homers over 11 innings. His WHIP is 0.73, and despite the four home runs, he’s given up just five runs. He’s a buy now, but will he remain in the rotation once Paxton and Domingo German (suspension) return? If the season gets delayed, will his stock go down as Paxton will be much closer to returning?
2020 Fantasy Baseball Tiers, Draft Strategy:
Catcher | First | Second | Third | Short | Outfield | Starter | Reliever
Willie Calhoun Injury: Door open for sleeper Nick Solak
Calhoun started his breakout in 2019, and there are some who believe it would continue into '20. Then along came a Julio Urias fastball to the jaw and all bets are off. His injury wasn’t too severe and he is expected to make a full recovery, but there has been no word on long he’ll be sidelined. His MDA stock has plummeted like Wall Street’s recent decline, going from 175 to 256 in its small sample size. In the NFBC he’s seen a 25-slot drop.
Nick Solak is one of the players who could receive a boost in ADP with Calhoun’s injury, and the Army drafted him about three rounds earlier. There was little change in his NFBC ADP. Is this a wait-and-see for the NFBC owners, or do they not value Solak enough to bump him up?
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2020 Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheet
Trey Mancini Illness: Orioles sleepers Austin Hays, Anthony Santander to move up in drafts?
Mancini underwent surgery to have a malignant tumor removed from his colon on Thursday, and will miss an extended period of the season. With so much uncertainty surrounding the situation, it's likely Mancini will fall off draft boards until at least the final couple rounds.
Orioles outfielders, such as Austin Hays and Anthony Santander, should eventually see a big boost in their ADPs, but it's too early speculate just how much.
More 2020 Fantasy Baseball: Auction Values | Mock Draft Simulator
Michael Conforto Injury: Effects on mock draft ADP
Conforto was diagnosed with a Grade-1 oblique strain on March 11, and we know those injuries can linger for an extended period of time. It’s probably a four-week injury, putting his return in mid-April. Some have said that it would be JD Davis getting the boost in value, but I see it being Dominic Smith, who was going to be a bench player. The other possibility is that Jeff McNeil gets moved to right field, Davis to left field, and either Luis Guillorme or Eduardo Nunez takes over at third. This is not expected to be a long-term injury, and Conforto isn’t being discounted much in drafts (and will be even less with the opening day delay). None of the other Mets appear to be worth moving up your draft boards.
Depending upon what decisions are made, drafts over the weekend may be very different than they would be even today. Follow the news and make sure you factor in all the available information before you have to make those critical choices on draft day. Check the Fantasy Alarm Ultimate Cheat Sheet as it is updated daily for the latest information and rankings.