Without fail, the predominant term of every fantasy baseball preseason is "sleepers." Everyone wants to know where they can find value, who they should absolutely target, and which breakout hitter or pitcher will help make their team a legitimate championship contender. However, sometimes in life, the moves you avoid can be just as beneficial as the moves you make. Fantasy is no different. Grabbing a value pick in the fifth round won't matter much if you reach for an overrated player one round later. That's why we're breaking down our top "contenders" for the 2023 All-Bust Team, or players we project much lower than their ADPs who you should probably avoid during your league's draft.
Fantasy sports often reminds me of Jeopardy!, one of my all-time favorite TV shows (RIP, Mr. Alex Trebek). I once saw a stat that revealed that the overwhelming majority of winners don't always get the most questions correct or pull off the biggest gains during Daily Doubles or Final Jeopardy. Instead, they get the fewest questions incorrect and therefore preserve their earnings as the game progresses. The moral: don't guess. Go with what you know, not with the risk that could hit but could also hurt.
Of course, there will be times in which a player's potential reward greatly outweighs their inherent risk. It could be a veteran we've seen play elite ball in the past coming off an injury, a young up-and-comer with some strikeout concerns but above-average exit-velo numbers and sprint speed, or a stud contact hitter moving into the heart of a solid batting order. These are the kind of scenarios we highlight in our sleeper columns at each position, but it seems like we talk far too often about players whose pros outweigh their cons and not enough about the flip-side of that coin.
2023 FANTASY RANKINGS & DOLLAR VALUES:
Cs | 1Bs | 2Bs | 3Bs | SSs | OFs | SPs | RPs | Top 300
Nobody likes to be a Negative Nancy or Debby Downer (gotta feel for the Nancy's and Debby's of the world — they're like the OG Karens), but a big part of maximizing value during roster construction is avoiding potential busts, steering clear of the negative regression candidates, and walking away when everyone else is hastily jumping onto a bandwagon with rickety wheels.
2023 FANTASY SLEEPERS & VALUES:
Cs | 1Bs | 2Bs | 3Bs | SSs | OFs | SPs | RPs
Call it what you want -- a "Do Not Draft" list, the "Fades 'n Fizzles First Team," or the "All Lip, No Chip" crew — these are the players at each position we will be avoiding at their current ADPs during our fantasy baseball drafts.
Fantasy Baseball All-Bust Team 2023: Draft Fades & ADP Flops
First Base Fade: Anthony Rizzo, Yankees (FantasyPros rank: 1B14; ADP: 131)
Rizzo turns 34 this August, and he might want to put prescription goggles on his birthday wish list. He struck out 101 times in 130 games last season, and he's already been punched out 10 times in 31 at-bats this spring. His average last season was .224, marking the fifth year in a row in which he failed to bat .250 and the second in that span in which he couldn't reach .225. What bails out his draft stock and makes him appear valuable this preseason are his power numbers. He belted 32 homers and drove in 75 runs last season, numbers he hadn't previously sniffed in several seasons. However, his advanced metrics suggest a steep regression could be coming. He's in just the mid-50th percentile in exit-velo and hard-hit rates. His BABIP last season was .216. Oh, and did we mention that he's already getting scratched from the Yankees' lineup in the preseason due to lower back discomfort? That's shoddy news for a 33-year-old who's hitting .194 against farm-system pitchers and already ranks as one of the slowest runners in the majors. I've seen colleagues fade Rizzo from his ADP of 131 to 200. I dropped him off my rankings altogether. I'd rather draft a potentially high-reward sleeper than a massively high-risk slugger on the downslopes of his career. Baseball-Reference projects 23 home runs and a .231 batting average. That's generous, but even if those are his numbers, what's the point of drafting him when he's molasses on the basepaths? We're saying hell no to Rizzo.
Second Base Stinker: Brandon Lowe, Rays (Ranked: 2B10; ADP: 143)
Another guy who runs like he's stuck in mud, Lowe suffered a disastrous 2022 marred by injuries and a .221 average across the 65 games he did make the field. Casuals still draft the guy like he's worth something — seriously, the highest projections and draft data on FantasyPros have him going as high as pick 93 — perhaps because they're confusing him with first baseman and .327 hitter Nathan Lowe, who smashed 27 dingers last year (similar to the Chris Pratt/Chris Pine/Chris Hemsworth confusion!). Look, Brandon is the Lowe who deserves to be low on your draft board. Go with the experts who drop him as far down the rankings as 259 overall. His average has regressed in each of the past three seasons, as have his hard-hit rates and BABIP. Don't expect a miracle bounce-back from a guy who suffered elbow, triceps, and back injuries throughout last season.
Third Base Throwaway: Eugenio Suarez, Mariners (Ranked: 3B11; ADP: 138)
Suarez led the AL with 196 strikeouts last season, a fate that often serves as a precursor to a sharp decline for 30-somethings like him. His median average over the past three years is .212, but he somehow managed to hit .236 last year despite a .302 BABIP. The cliff is coming for Mr. Suarez — don't be the road runner who chases him off it.
Shortstop Big Flop: Oneil Cruz, Pirates (Rank: SS8; ADP: 79)
As they might have said in "Mean Girls," 'Stop trying to make Oneil Cruz a thing!' The dude has legit power when he makes contact with the ball, but it's hard to trust a third-year player who already has a 35-percent career strikeout rate. National League pitchers figured him out pretty quickly, and it's easy to challenge a chaser with little lineup protection behind him in a perennially underwhelming Pirates offense. Let's keep it simple: if you reach on Cruz, you gon' lose.
Catcher Catastrophe: MJ Melendez, Royals (Rank: C9; ADP: 108)
A popular preseason sleeper, Melendez has some hard-hitting data on his side, and he's enjoyed a solid spring. However, we remain cautiously pessimistic, as we didn't like what we saw during the 2022 season. He had a woeful 24.5-percent strikeout rate, whiffing 0.28 times per at-bat and 1.02 times per game, and maintained an awful .217 batting average and .258 BABIP. The fantasy pundits-a-plenty can keep their sleeper — this MJ's no GOAT.
Outhouse Outfielders: Adolis Garcia, Rangers (Rank: OF14; ADP: 58); Starling Marte, Mets (OF19; 75); Anthony Santander, Orioles (OF26; 114); Cody Bellinger, Cubs (OF49; 178); Andrew Benintendi, White Sox (OF47; 211)
We lumped these guys all together to avoid a full-out Player-Hater's Ball, Silky Johnson style. These guys are mostly washed-up, slow-swinging, base-sloths that serve as pariahs across the board. You're drafting for upside and chasing high ceilings to look up to the future, not drafting down and chasing numbers from the past. When in doubt, compare the experts' rankings to public ADPs. Listen to the narrative of the rankings issued by people who crunch these numbers day in and day out. We might grab Garcia if he's still around in the 80-100 range. The rest of these dudes are getting crossed off in red marker like a completed crossword clue. Next!
Starting Pitcher Stall-outs: Hunter Greene, Reds (Rank: SP35; ADP: 105); Lucas Giolito, White Sox (SP41; 141); Jesus Luzardo, Marlins (SP49; 152); Chris Sale, Red Sox (SP42; 146); Charlie Morton, Braves (SP43; 151)
Greene, of the lowly Reds, can throw a blisteringly quick fastball but can't keep his basepaths clear, and he often serves up untimely homers. Giolito had a 4.90 ERA last season with declines in his velocity and strikeout rates and an increased walk rate. Luzardo has seemed to be oft-erratic his entire career, but momentary glimpses of brilliance always manage to hit refresh on fantasy owners' collective interest levels. Sale can't stay healthy, and even when he's physically fine, and he's such a head-case that you can't trust him to avoid a suspension or some kind of concentration lapse. Morton has been over the hill for multiple years, but people keep going to the dried-up well in search of water. Starting pitcher is too deep of a position to roll the dice on volatility in the 105-151 range.
Risky Relief Pitcher: Devin Williams, Brewers (Rank: RP3; ADP: 60)
This is the most courageous bust pick we've made all column. Williams has been superb playing second fiddle to Josh Hader for the past half-decade, but we've never seen him as the sole occupant of the captain's seat (so to speak). Expect an increase in his already-high walk rates (12.5 percent last season), as well as a reduction in outs via the ground ball (50.5 percent of the contact he sees are grounders). With no shift and no Hader behind him, we doubt he finishes as the third-best closer like so many analysts seem to think. We have him closer to seventh or eighth, which is still very good. His strikeout numbers will always have appeal in 5x5 and 6x6 leagues. We just don't see the need to draft any reliever in the top 50-60, never mind one who more than likely won't sniff the positional lead.
