Last week was almost brutal one for NFL survivor pools, as around 30 percent of the public's picks were on Tampa Bay, which had to sweat out a very close win over the Giants on Monday night. Still, losses by Green Bay and Tennessee eliminated around 20 percent of still-alive entries. Heading into Week 9, there are some overwhelmingly popular choices (Steelers, Patriots, Chiefs), but finding out which one makes the most sense for your pool might not be so obvious.
As we do every week, let's dive in and analyze the five most popular survivor pool picks of NFL Week 9 using the "Holy Trinity" of survivor pick strategy data: Win odds, pick popularity, future value.
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Week 9 NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Tips, strategy for picks
To be clear, we are not saying that the first team listed below, Pittsburgh, is the best Week 9 survivor pick for your specific pool(s). We're telling you that the Steelers are the most popular Week 9 pick in survivor pools nationwide. We then break down the major pros and cons of potentially picking them and the next more most popular teams.
To get our specific Week 9 survivor pick recommendations, check out our NFL Survivor Picks product. Using the unique My Pool Picks feature, you first tell us some details about your pool(s) and the teams you've picked so far, and the product shows you the best Week 9 picks for all of your survivor pool entries.
Note: Data referenced below was current as of Wednesday and could change between posting time and kickoff time. Our product updates multiple times per day with the latest information.
Pittsburgh Steelers (at Dallas Cowboys)
Survivor Pick Popularity: 40% (most popular pick)
Point Spread: -13.5
Pittsburgh has the highest win odds of the week, as they play a Dallas team that will be starting their fourth quarterback of the season. Either Cooper Rush or Garrett Gilbert is expected to start this week after rookie Ben DiNucci struggled last week and second-stringer Andy Dalton was placed on the COVID list. Pittsburgh is also a very popular survivor choice, though their win odds being above 85 percent right now gives them good expected value this week even with that popularity.
The decision on Pittsburgh is largely driven on future value considerations. The Steelers have actually moved past Kansas City in our rest-of-season future value rating, and we project them with win odds over 80 percent in three of the next four weeks (vs. Cincinnati, at Jacksonville, vs. Washington). Pittsburgh also will likely have much lower popularity than 40 percent in those upcoming weeks because so many entries will have already used them. That means they are a potential high-value pick over the next month.
If you are in the end-game of your pool and your alternatives this week are slim, using Pittsburgh now may be a reasonable decision. If you are in a larger pool and have other options this week, preserving Pittsburgh for an even higher value week may make more sense.
New England Patriots (at New York Jets)
Survivor Pick Popularity: 20%
Point Spread: -7.5
The Patriots have lost four games in a row, yet they are a reasonably popular survivor pick this week because they are facing the Jets. New York has managed just seven offensive touchdowns in eight games so far this year (all losses).
New England's 20-percent pick popularity reduces the value of taking the Patriots, who are in roughly the same safety tier as some other alternatives. So far this year, here are the other choices that had popularity of 20 percent or more and were favored by fewer than nine points:
- Indianapolis, Week 1 (Loss)
- Dallas, Week 5 (Won)
- New England, Week 6 (Loss)
Of course, one of the attractions of taking New England versus the Jets is they now appear to have very little future value beyond this week -- that is, until it plays the Jets again in Week 17.
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Carolina Panthers)
Survivor Pick Popularity: 11% (#3)
Point Spread: -10.5
Kansas City is a high Expected Value pick in Week 9 if you have it available, as will be the case in future weeks. However, most survivor pool entries nationwide do not have the Chiefs available any more.
If you can use the Chiefs, the decision comes down to the alternatives you have available this week and how long you expect your pool to go. If you anticipate your pool to last deep into the season, saving Kansas City for the last five weeks of the year is probably the more attractive route.
Houston Texans (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
Survivor Pick Popularity: 11%
Point Spread: -7.5
Houston jumps up as a survivor option this week with the news that Jacksonville QB Gardner Minshew (thumb) is out untested rookie Jake Luton is starting. Both teams are 1-6, but Houston already beat Jacksonville once and has a better power rating even ignoring the Minshew news.
Houston has similar win odds to New England this week but half of the Patriots' pick popularity, and the Texans also have low future value. If you have a direct choice between the Texans and Patriots, then, Houston would appear the better value play in the early going. However, it's worth watching how betting lines move over the course of this week.
Arizona Cardinals (vs. Miami Dolphins)
Survivor Pick Popularity: 4%
Point Spread: -5
There are a host of other matchups that are drawing some survivor pick interest in Week 9, highlighted by Arizona against the Dolphins. Miami beat the Rams last week in QB Tua Tagovailoa's first start but did so on the strength of its defense and special teams. Tagovailoa threw for fewer than 100 passing yards.
At the same time, Arizona is a little riskier than some other options on the board in Week 9 and also has some concerns with two defensive starters out this week to positive COVID tests. Arizona does not have much future value, though it could be in play as a contrarian option in deeper pools when it plays the Giants and Eagles in Weeks 14 and 15, respectively.
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Get our Week 9 survivor pick for your pool!
Every possible NFL Week 9 survivor pick has an expected value and future value associated with it, and those values can vary significantly based on the characteristics of your survivor pool.
It takes a lot of data and math to figure out which pick (or combination of picks, if you're playing multiple entries) gives the biggest boost to your expected survivor pool winnings. That's exactly why we spent years building our NFL Survivor Picks product.
We invite you to try it out, and good luck in your survivor pools this week!
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If you want to dig deeper into some specific topics, you can also check out our full survivor pool strategy guide, where you can learn about things like expected value, future value, different survivor pool rules variations, and how to play multiple entries.