The pick-against-the-Dolphins strategy is out in full force in Week 7 NFL survival pools. The Bills are the overwhelming top pick for eliminator/knockout pools this week, but with high future win odds in a couple future weeks, should you pull the trigger on picking Buffalo? The experts from TeamRankings break down the other top choices (San Francisco, Green Bay, New England, Kansas City) and provide advice for finding the right pick for your football pool.
TeamRankings the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in survivor pools. Since 2017, TeamRankings subscribers have reported nearly $1.5 million in survivor pool winnings. Check out their NFL survivor pool picks, football pick 'em contest picks, and NFL betting picks.
More From TeamRankings:
Football Pick 'em Picks | NFL Survivor Picks | NFL Betting Picks
FREE TRIAL OFFER: Sporting News readers can get a free three-day premium trial to TeamRankings, including game predictions, betting picks, and customized picks for pick 'em and survivor pools. Claim your free trial now!
Last week's survivor pick analysis
Week 6 featured two large favorites that won (New England and Baltimore) and then a host of other upsets that eliminated other choices. Dallas losing to the Jets eliminated 14 percent of survivor entries, the Chiefs and Chargers both losing took out another four percent each. The Rams and Falcons also had some support. Put it all together, and 26 percent of the public was eliminated last week.
For TeamRankings, our subscriber recommendations largely mirrored the public when it came to the top two teams (though we were slightly up on Patriots recommendations versus the public and slightly below the public on Baltimore). However, we were not as heavily on Dallas or the Chiefs. Our subscriber recommendations were higher on Washington because the point spread moved to six points by game time and Washington was not very popular with the public. Our recommendations were also relatively higher on the Packers. Both of those games went our way in close fashion, and as a result, only 11 percent of all of our recommendations lost in Week 6.
When you add in the 74-percent public survival rate in Week 6 to our recommended subscriber picks surviving at an 89-percent rate, cumulatively the public has survived through to Week 7 at 19 percent overall while our recommended entries to our subscribers have survived 31 percent of the time through six weeks.
WEEK 7 FANTASY RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Week 7 NFL Survivor Pool Pick Tips, Analysis
The Bills draw the Dolphins this week, and that has them shooting up the popularity chart. San Francisco has also been surging and now gets Washington, putting the 49ers among the most popular survivor picks for the first time. We’ll explore all of that as we break down the most popular choices of Week 7.
Buffalo Bills (vs. Miami Dolphins)
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 67%
Point Spread: -16.5
Buffalo is the safest pick on the board in Week 7. That, combined with the fact that up until now the Bills have not been a popular choice in survivor, makes for very high popularity this week. In fact, about two-thirds of all entries are picking Buffalo so far.
Does that mean the Bills are a bad choice? Not necessarily. The high win odds still make them a reasonable option. But one thing you have to consider is that they do have good future value and look like a safe option again in Weeks 9 and 11. We separately wrote about how Miami is impacting survivor pools and looked at some of the strategy options you can consider to go against the "pick the team playing Miami" crowd, including for this week.
If you do trade off some safety this week for future value, Buffalo plays Washington at home and Miami again within the next four weeks and will be far less popular because most entries will have already used them by then.
San Francisco 49ers (at Washington)
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 21%
Point Spread: -10
Like Buffalo, San Francisco has been little used up until now, but that is about to change as the 49ers look like one of the best teams in the NFC going forward. They are in the tier right behind Buffalo when it comes to safety this week, as they have to play on the road at Washington.
The 49ers are coming in as a moderately popular choice, which does impact some of their value this week, though they are still a reasonable option. Like Buffalo, the factor you need to weigh is how you want to approach the next few weeks, as they are also one of the safest options in both Weeks 9 and 11 when they play Arizona twice in the span of three weeks.
If you want to avoid Buffalo, though, they are safer than the next tier of options because other than New England (who most entries have used), no other team this week is favored by at least six points currently.
More From TeamRankings:
Football Pick 'em Picks | NFL Survivor Picks | NFL Betting Picks
Green Bay Packers (vs. Oakland Raiders)
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 5%
Point Spread: -5.5
The Green Bay line has already dropped by a point in early movement after opening at 6.5. The Packers survived on Monday night with a late field goal, overcoming plenty of miscues and injuries to the receiver group. The injuries, though, mean that this game is a little riskier than it appeared a few weeks ago.
The Packers are not as safe as the two most popular entries, but the large drop-off in popularity does make up some of that value. Green Bay also doesn't have the same future value as Buffalo and San Francisco. The next time we project the Packers to be one of the three safest choices by win odds is in Week 14 when they host Washington.
New England Patriots (at New York Jets)
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 2%
Point Spread: -10
New England is being used by only two percent of the public because most of the public has already used them to get through the first six weeks. If you still have them, they are an attractive option this week as a high win-odds team with a similar safety profile to San Francisco but coming in at one-tenth the pick rate.
Kansas City Chiefs (at Denver Broncos)
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 2%
Point Spread: -3
As you can see with the popularity figures, almost all of the public (88 percent) is taking either Buffalo or San Francisco this week. Kansas City makes the list here, but at only two-percent popularity. The Chiefs have lost two in a row, are having major defensive issues, and now travel to Denver for a quick turnaround on Thursday night.
They still have good future value in Weeks 13 and 15 (and the offensive line might be healthier by then). There are at least three other options who have similar or better win odds this week and less future value if you're trying to avoid the other popular choices. Our recommendations have largely avoided the Chiefs in recent weeks, and the current win odds make it likely they will do so again.
Get our Week 7 Survivor Pool pick recommendation
The teams above are the most popular survivor picks of Week 7, but that doesn’t mean one of them is the best pick for you. Your best NFL Week 7 survivor pick is the one that offers the ideal balance of safety, pick popularity, and future value for your specific pool.
We built our NFL Survivor Picks tools to do all of the necessary number crunching to figure out the best pick(s) for your pool. You simply answer a few questions about your survivor pool's size and rules, and enter the teams you've picked so far. Then, it provides customized Week 7 pick recommendations based on the latest matchup data, Vegas odds and public picking trends.
The result? Since 2017, on average, more than 30 percent of our subscribers have reported winning a survivor pool every year. We invite you to give the product a try for free, and good luck in your survivor pools in Week 7!
FREE TRIAL OFFER: Sporting News readers can get a free three-day premium trial to TeamRankings, including game predictions, betting picks, and customized picks for pick 'em and survivor pools. Claim your free trial now!