After a wild first week, all of the most popular NFL survivor pool picks survived last week. In the first two weeks of the 2020 season, the public spread its survivor picks across a wide variety of choices, as there was no huge favorite in either week. That changes in Week 3 as the Colts, hosting the woeful Jets, become the first double-digit point-spread favorite of the season.
In this post, we will analyze the five most popular survivor pool picks of NFL Week 3 using the "Holy Trinity" of survivor pick strategy data: win odds, pick popularity, future value. Over the past three years, our subscribers have reported nearly $2.5 million in survivor pool winnings thanks to this data-driven approach.
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Week 3 NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Tips, strategy for picks
The pick analysis below should cover at least some of the picks that you are most likely considering making in your survivor or knockout pool this week.
Just to be clear, though, we are not saying that the first team listed, Indianapolis, is the best Week 3 survivor pick for your specific pool(s). We're just telling you that the Colts are the most popular Week 3 pick in survivor pools nationwide, and we break down the major pros and cons of potentially picking them.
To get our specific pick recommendations, just hop over to our NFL Survivor Picks product. Using the My Pool Picks feature, you tell us some things about your pool(s), and then the product shows you which Week 3 picks give you the best chance to gain ground on your opponents.
Note: Data referenced below was current as of Wednesday afternoon and could change between posting time and kickoff time. Our product updates multiple times per day with the latest information.
Indianapolis Colts (vs. NY Jets)
Survivor Pick Popularity: 45% (Top-picked team)
Point Spread: -11
It took three weeks this year, but the public finally has its "Obvious Survivor Pick." It's also another week when the Jets are the most popular team to pick against. Last week, San Francisco was the most popular choice while playing the Jets, and nothing Gang Green did has discouraged survivor players from returning to the anti-Jets well.
The Colts are the first double-digit favorite of 2020. As a result, the public is fully on board, with about 45 percent of survivor pool entries nationwide taking Indianapolis. There is a clear safety difference in going from the Colts to any other team this week, as the next largest spread is currently the Browns at only -7. That spread difference equates to a little less than a 10-percent win odds drop-off between the Colts and the next safest option.
Most of the Colts' future value is now tied up in Week 6, when they host the Bengals and will be one of the bigger favorites in a week where there is no clear-cut top option as of right now.
A 45-percent pick popularity is typically a great opportunity to avoid the "obvious" pick and root for an upset that knocks out nearly half of your survivor pool. Because of their relative safety, though, the Colts still have solid expected value this week despite their sky-high popularity. Whether they are the best pick (or one of the best picks) this week will depend on where the popularity numbers shake out and if any betting line movement reduces the safety premium by the time kickoff rolls around.
It's worth noting that the public is probably high on the Colts from a recency bias perspective after Indy trounced the Vikings last week, so it will be interesting to see if this line is bet down very late in the week. Our predictive ratings see it as a closer to a 9.5-point edge for the Colts.
Arizona Cardinals (vs. Detroit)
Survivor Pick Popularity: 10%
Point Spread: -6
Arizona is currently the top choice among those avoiding the Colts this week, but at 10-percent popularity, the Cardinals are actually a little more popular this week than last week against Washington when Arizona was a slightly bigger favorite.
When compared to other non-Colts options, the Cardinals also don't stand out in terms of win odds, as five other less popular survivor picks are favored by a similar (or greater) amount.
What Arizona does have going for it is only moderate future value. The only week where the Cardinals project to be favored by more than they are favored in Week 3 is a Week 9 matchup against Miami at home.
WEEK 3 PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Carolina)
Survivor Pick Popularity: 9%
Point Spread: -6.5
The Chargers are a very similar choice to the Cardinals in many ways. Los Angeles is coming off a strong performance against Kansas City, and it is not certain whether rookie QB Justin Herbert will remain the starter or if the team will go back to Tyrod Taylor, who missed the Chiefs game because of a chest injury. The Chargers also play Carolina the week after the team lost star running back Christian McCaffrey for at least a month.
The Chargers have similar win odds to a large tier of teams positioned behind the Colts in Week 3. However, they are a little more popular than some other choices this week if you are avoiding the Colts, which could impact their expected value as a survivor pick depending on where their popularity ends up.
The Chargers have some moderate near-term future value, as they are potentially useful in Week 6 (vs. the Jets at home) or Week 8 (Jacksonville at home). That future value, though, isn't high enough that it would single-handedly disqualify them as a pick to consider this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Denver)
Survivor Pick Popularity: 8%
Point Spread: -6
Tampa Bay draws a Broncos team that played the Titans and Steelers tough but came up short in both games.
Denver, though, has lost starting QB Drew Lock to a shoulder injury and will likely start Jeff Driskel in this game; they also signed Blake Bortles this week. That QB shuffling has bumped up Tampa Bay's win odds in this one, so it also joins the next-safest tier of teams behind the Colts.
Tampa Bay does have a little higher future value than both Arizona and the Chargers. While there is not any single future week in which the Bucs look like an amazing survivor pick option, there are lots of weeks where they look like they will be favored. If one of their future opponents ends up being much worse than expected this year (or suffers bad injury luck, etc.), Tampa Bay could become a top option in some future weeks.
Cleveland Browns (vs. Washington)
Survivor Pick Popularity: 6%
Point Spread: -7
Cleveland is yet another team in the large tier of next-safest pick options after the Colts. Compared to those non-Colts alternatives, the Browns have the highest point spread and implied win odds in the betting markets.
The Browns also have the lowest future value of any of those options, as this game against Washington projects as the last game in which Cleveland will be a large favorite this year, barring unexpected developments like big injuries. The Browns don't have a single future week in the 2020 season where we currently project them with more than 60-percent win odds.
That combination of low future value and decent win odds relative to other non-Colts picks makes them a potentially attractive choice in some pools.
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Get our Week 3 survivor pick for your pool!
Every possible NFL Week 3 survivor pick has an expected value and future value associated with it, and those values can vary significantly based on the characteristics of your pool.
It takes a lot of data and math to figure out which pick (or combination of picks, if you're playing multiple entries) gives the biggest boost to your expected survivor pool winnings, which is why we spent years building our NFL Survivor Picks product.
We invite you to try it out, and good luck in your survivor pools this week!
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If you want to dig deeper into some specific topics, you can also check out our full survivor pool strategy guide, where you can learn about things like expected value, future value, different survivor pool rules variations, and how to play multiple entries.