With Week 1 finally here, our weekly advice column for football pick 'em and office pools is back. In this post, we highlight six Week 1 picks that can help give you an edge to win an NFL pick 'em contest or confidence pool in 2019.
This value-driven approach to picks is a big reason why 80 percent our subscribers reported winning a prize in a football pick 'em contest last year. Here's what it says about Week 1.
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Football Pool Strategy: Why pick popularity matters
Our pick advice is a little different than what you're probably used to seeing. Of course, we want to identify the most likely winner of each Week 1 game. But maximizing your edge in a football pick 'em pool also requires you to consider how your opponents are going to pick.
After all, you can only rise in the pool standings if you score points that your opponents miss. So, you always need to be on the lookout for underrated teams that might be worth an educated gamble, and you need to avoid trendy upset picks that aren't worth the risk.
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Keep in mind that we are not recommending that you make all of the picks below — the upset picks especially. The best Week 1 picks for your specific NFL pool depend on a number of different dynamics, such as your pool's size, length, rules, and scoring system. (Our Football Pick ’em Picks product recommends picks for you based on all those factors.)
What we are saying is that the teams mentioned in this post offer some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 1 picks from your pool opponents, or they serve as prime examples of when picking against the crowd is most likely a bad idea.
Note: Win odds and estimated national pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want to see the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.
Favorites at reasonable prices
The two picks below are still overrated by the public but to a much lesser degree than other teams with similar risk profiles in Week 1. You should think twice about picking against these two teams because there are smarter upset pick opportunities elsewhere.
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Atlanta)
Starting from the biggest favorite this week (Seattle) and working your way down, Minnesota is the first favorite you hit that has a difference between pick popularity and win odds of around 10 percent. As a 3.5-point favorite in the betting markets, the Vikings have just under a 65-percent chance to beat Atlanta and 73 percent of the public is picking Minnesota. That's a reasonable premium for a favorite of more than a field goal.
Although a recent point spread move against Minnesota isn't the greatest news (the Vikings used to be -4.5), there are several highly overrated teams at this risk level this week, two of which we highlight in the Value Gambles section below.
As another comparable, a whopping 92 percent of the public is picking Cleveland to beat Tennessee. The Browns, at 68-percent win odds, aren't much more likely to win than Minnesota.
Chicago Bears (vs. Green Bay)
Chicago has a very similar profile to Minnesota this week. The Bears are being picked by 72 percent of the public and have about a 63-percent chance of winning if you average our models and the betting markets.
Yet Green Bay, a 3.5-point underdog, is four times as popular an upset pick as another 3.5-point underdog this week. (Keep reading. Oh the suspense...)
It's always difficult to completely decode public perception. First, hopes are high that Aaron Rodgers will regain his stature as one of the best QBs in the game with a new coach and offensive system in 2019. That outcome seems by no means guaranteed, though. Over the past four years Rodgers is 20th in yards per attempt among all quarterbacks who have thrown at least 1,000 passes.
Green Bay had also dominated this series until last year, when the Bears won the second of two meetings and covered the spread in both games. Before last season, though, the Packers had won 12 of the last 14 head-to-head matchups and covered the spread in 11 of them.
Narratives aside, real money being bet on this game implies that Chicago has the better chance to win, and that Green Bay is too trendy of an upset pick compared to the alternatives.
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Unpopular toss-up picks
When a matchup is pretty much a 50/50 proposition, it usually makes sense to pick the less popular team. To win an NFL pick 'em pool, you're probably going to need some luck in these "coin flip" games, and when you get it, you want to maximize the upside.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. San Francisco)
The Buccaneers and 49ers are basically brothers from another city. Both teams feature offensive gurus at head coach (Bruce Arians in his first year in Tampa Bay; Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco) and fairly potent passing attacks. Both teams also had bottom-five ranked scoring defenses in 2018, which helps explain why they racked up 11 and 12 losses, respectively.
Tampa Bay was favored by one point in the betting markets at post time, yet a small majority of the public (about 56 percent) is going with the 49ers. That may be because San Francisco, assuming a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo at QB, is expected to make a bigger jump upward in the wins column in 2019 than Tampa Bay.
Regardless, with the help of Tampa Bay's home field advantage, these teams look evenly matched, and the fact that the Bucs are only 44-percent picked is the cherry on top.
Denver Broncos (vs. Oakland)
In 2018 the Raiders finished with the NFL's second-worst record, and were dead last in the NFL in points allowed per game. But after some offseason moves like adding WR Antonio Brown, the betting markets (and our 2019 preseason NFL predictions) expect Oakland to improve this year.
Perhaps because of that optimism, around two-thirds of the public is picking the Raiders to win their season opener at home.
Our models disagree, making Denver the slight favorite to win. This game was an even Pick 'em in the betting markets at post time, with the point spread having moved significantly in Denver's favor after opening with the Raiders favored by 2.5 points.
Denver will be playing its first game under new head coach Vic Fangio, so perhaps the public anticipates a slow start for the Broncos. Alternatively, a lot of pick 'em players may not realize how much the betting line has moved in Denver's favor.
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Value gambles
The two picks below are definitely not appropriate for all pools. If you're in a smaller, season-long pool with lots of games left, they're probably not worth the risk. However, if you're in a single-week pool with a larger number of entries, or if you only care about winning weekly prizes in your season-long pool, or if you're just feeling lucky, these highly unpopular underdogs with decent chances to win offer compelling profiles.
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Kansas City)
Mahomes Mania returns to the gridiron in 2019, and NFL pick 'em pool players are clearly excited. In this game, Kansas City is being picked by 93 percent of the public, an extreme level of popularity normally reserved for heavy favorites of a touchdown or more.
Yet the Chiefs are only a 3.5-point favorite on the road at Jacksonville, with less than 65-percent win odds according to both the betting markets and our models. So, what's causing the discrepancy here?
Last year's game at Arrowhead may provide a hint. The Jaguars' defense held Mahomes without a touchdown pass, and Jacksonville was the only team to accomplish that feat in 2018. In fact, it was the only game all season in which Mahomes' passer rating was below 89.5. However, Jags QB Blake Bortles threw four interceptions, including one returned for a TD right before halftime.
This year, QB Nick Foles looks to be an upgrade over Bortles for Jacksonville, a team that was in the AFC Championship game two years ago and still has one of the better defenses in the league. Plus, Jacksonville has home-field advantage, a factor the public might be undervaluing here.
KC is probably going to win this one, but if you trust the markets and the numbers, it's one heck of a contrarian opportunity.
Carolina Panthers (vs. LA Rams)
The favorite went all the way to the Super Bowl. The underdog lost seven straight games last year before finally beating an unmotivated New Orleans team resting Drew Brees in Week 17. It's pretty easy to see why the public would strongly favor the Rams in this game, to the tune of 87-percent pick popularity.
That pick popularity puts the Rams in line with teams like the Cowboys, Chargers, Ravens, and Patriots, which are all favored by at least six points in Week 1. However, the Rams are only a three-point favorite, giving Carolina a roughly 40-percent chance to pull off the upset.
The Rams didn't get any favors from the schedule makers to start the year, traveling cross-country for an early Sunday kickoff. In addition, LA's 13-win campaign in 2018 featured a lot of luck in stat categories like turnovers that will be difficult to reproduce in 2019. Both our preseason predictions and offshore win totals lines expect the Rams to decline this season.
Cam Newton's injured shoulder was a big factor in Carolina's poor performance last year, and if he is healthier you can expect a better team. We project Carolina as a near-average team this year. Playing at home against a likely overrated Rams team, as only a three-point dog, and with only 13 percent of the public picking them, the Panthers definitely have contrarian value.
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Which of these six NFL Week 1 picks should you make?
Once you know the best value opportunities of Week 1, you can increase your odds to win your pool by making educated gambles on them. Perhaps you bump up the number of confidence points you assign to a solid value pick like Denver, or maybe you take even more risk on an upset pick like Jacksonville or Carolina.
There are a lot of potential decisions to make, however, and not all of them will make sense for your specific pool. It takes a lot of data and math to get to the right answer. Fortunately, we've built technology to do all the heavy lifting for you.
Our Football Pick 'em Picks product recommends the best weekly picks for your pool based on all the strategy factors that matter. You answer a few quick questions about your pool, and it constructs and presents the weekly pick sheet that will maximize your edge.
We invite you to give it (and all our other premium NFL tools) a try for free for Week 1. Good luck in your NFL pick 'em contests and office pools this week!
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