In preparation for the opening weekend of the 2019 NFL season, we've been hard at work crunching the numbers on every Week 1 game. This post highlights our computer picks and predictions for three big matchups on the Week 1 slate. Before we get to the Week 1 picks and previews, though, we'll give a quick explanation of how we use data and math to predict the NFL and help with your betting picks.
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Our approach to NFL predictions
Every expert has a specialty. We focus on large-scale data analysis and predictive modeling. We gather thousands of stats on NFL teams and players, and use that objective data to power algorithms that predict individual games (and, by extension, the entire NFL season).
While every prediction method has its strengths and weaknesses, our objective approach has proven its value in several independently verifiable ways, such as beating Vegas win totals lines and scoring top-five finishes in the Prediction Tracker.
How we make NFL Week 1 picks
We have created several computer models that each use a different mathematical approach to making NFL game predictions. We combine the outputs of these models in intelligent ways to generate picks for every game -- a method that analytics geeks refer to as a "model of models" or "ensemble forecasting." Considering multiple models helps overcome the particular blind spots that any one particular model is bound to have.
A few of the predictive models that we've developed and currently use include:
- Predictive Power Ratings Model. Creates a quantitative rating for each team based on margins of victory, adjusted for opponent strength and game location.
- Similar Games Model. Identifies historical matchups that are statistically similar to the game you want to predict and uses the results of those games to make a prediction.
- Decision Tree Model. Uses a machine-learning algorithm to analyze team performance trends in sophisticated ways and identify trends that are statistically significant.
Week 1 NFL Picks, Betting Predictions
Now that you're familiar with our approach, let's get to some picks and model predictions for NFL Week 1. We'll dive into three specific matchups in this post, but remember you can get our predictions for all NFL and college football games by signing up for the season or trying out our free Week 1 trial.
Important Note: All predictions and betting lines below are as of Thursday morning, and may change before kickoff time on account of betting line movement or other new data becoming available to our models.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City’s high-powered offense rolls into Jacksonville to face a Jaguars squad with elevated expectations after signing former Philadelphia QB Nick Foles in the offseason. Foles is a disciple of Chiefs head coach Andy Reid, having played under Reid both in Philadelphia and Kansas City.
Both the betting markets and our 2019 predictions expect Jacksonville to rebound from last year’s free fall. Thanks in part to Andrew’s Luck retirement, we give the Jags a 24.4-percent chance of winning the AFC South in 2019, making Jacksonville the most likely “worst-to-first” division winner candidate in the NFL this season.
Meanwhile, new Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo helmed the Giants defense during their 2007 Super Bowl run when he was working for now-Jags Executive VP Tom Coughlin. If the Chiefs’ defense levels up this year and QB Patrick Mahomes plays like he did in 2018, watch out. Of course, that’s certainly no guarantee. After such gaudy numbers Mahomes is probably at least as likely to regress as improve. Still, Kansas City has done enough to land our preseason No. 1 ranking, albeit by the slightest of margins, over New England.
This matchup is a case of strength vs. strength: Kansas City's passing offense against Jacksonville's pass defense. KC averaged a league-best 8.3 yards per pass with the emergence of Mahomes last season, while the Jaguars held offenses to 6.2 yards per pass (fourth best). In what may be a more telling sign, in the one matchup between these teams in 2018, Jacksonville prevented Mahomes from throwing a TD pass (the only team in the NFL to do so) and held Mahomes to his lowest passer rating of the entire season.
The hype is big on Kansas City thanks to Mahomes Mania, but especially playing at home, Jacksonville is a sneaky upset threat. The point spread says it all. Despite Kansas City being a Super Bowl contender and Jacksonville coming off a poor season, the line sits at Chiefs -3.5.
Power Ratings Prediction: Kansas City by 2.3
Similar Games Prediction: Kansas City, 63.2-percent win odds
Decision Tree Prediction: Kansas City, 60.3-percent win odds
Spread Pick: Jacksonville +3.5, 51.5-percent confidence
Over/Under Pick: UNDER 51.5, 51.6-percent confidence
Want these objective predictions for every NFL game? Sign up for the season or try our free Week 1 trial.
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
Our 2019 NFL preseason predictions place both Atlanta and Minnesota in a large group of NFC teams competing for a playoff spot, and our projected win totals for both teams are remarkably close (8.4 for Atlanta, 8.5 for Minnesota). That backdrop makes this early contest a potentially high-leverage game for future tiebreaker purposes.
Both Atlanta and Minnesota are coming off disappointing 2018 seasons in which they both missed the playoffs. Atlanta cleaned house and fired all three of its coordinators but brought back former offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, who held the same role from 2012-'14.
The Falcons offense was certainly the strength of the team last year with 25.9 points per game (ninth best in the NFL). Running back Devonta Freeman returns after missing most of last season with injuries, and the team invested heavily in retooling the offensive line. The defense is pinning its hopes on the healthy returns of stars Deion Jones and Keanu Neal, along with a better pass-rush from its front seven.
After firing offensive coordinator John DeFilippo during the 2018 season, the Vikings are expected to show more balance this year after passing the ball 64.4 percent of the time last year (fourth most in the NFL). Minnesota returns most of its 2018 roster after a cash-strapped offseason, and the team used most of its draft picks on offensive players, including three offensive linemen, in a bid to find some help for quarterback Kirk Cousins. The Vikings defense declined last season but still ranked 10th in the league with 21.3 points allowed per game.
Leaning more heavily on the run in this game could benefit Minnesota against an Atlanta defense that allowed 4.9 yards per rush last season (second worst in the NFL). Minnesota’s pass rush also had an NFL-best 9.04-percent sack rate last season, so Atlanta QB Matt Ryan may face extra pressure to release the ball quickly.
The point spread has moved slightly in Atlanta’s favor since last week, from Minnesota -4.5 to Minnesota -3.5, but then back up to Minnesota -4. This will be the first game for Atlanta at U.S. Bank Stadium, which opened in 2016; Minnesota is 2-4 against the spread there against other dome teams (Detroit and New Orleans).
Power Ratings Prediction: Minnesota by 2.8
Similar Games Prediction: Minnesota, 60.7-percent win odds
Decision Tree Prediction: Minnesota, 64.3-percent win odds
Spread Pick: None (Lay off)
Over/Under Pick: UNDER 48, 55.3-percent confidence
Want these objective predictions for every NFL game? Sign up for the season or try our free Week 1 trial.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
The first Sunday Night Football game of the year features what’s become an AFC rivalry between the Patriots and Steelers. The defending World Champs are hoping to compensate for tight end Rob Gronkowski’s retirement with the return of WR Josh Gordon. Still, TE depth could be an issue as veteran Ben Watson is suspended for four games and Matt LaCosse has been battling a high ankle sprain.
Most of the New England defense returns, though, with the notable exception of Michael Bennett replacing Trey Flowers at defensive end.
Pittsburgh’s personnel changes are arguably more drastic. The Steelers also lost a top passing target when they traded volatile wideout Antonio Brown to Oakland, replacing him with Donte Moncrief. On defense, they signed cornerback Steven Nelson and linebacker Mark Barron and traded up to draft linebacker Devin Bush in the first round.
We project both these teams to win their divisions this year. New England is our No. 2 team (barely) behind the Chiefs, but the Patriots still have the top odds in the NFL to win the Super Bowl (12.1 percent) thanks to a fortuitous schedule that includes a home game against Kansas City. We give the No. 7 Steelers just under 40-percent odds to win the AFC North, along with a 9.5-win projection.
Pittsburgh was the victor in the one meeting between these teams last year, snapping a five-game losing streak to New England. It’s also the sixth straight meeting between these teams with an over/under line of 49 or more; the UNDER has gone 1-4 in the previous five games, but our models have a very slight lean the other way.
Power Ratings Prediction: New England by 5.7
Similar Games Prediction: New England, 68.2-percent win odds
Decision Tree Prediction: New England, 65.5-percent win odds
Spread Pick: Pittsburgh +6, 54.8-percent confidence
Over/Under Pick: OVER 49, 52.1-percent confidence
Want these objective predictions for every NFL game? Sign up for the season or try our free Week 1 trial.
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