In this post we share three value-driven picks -- two where sticking with the favorite provides the most value and one where taking a shot on an upset could pay off -- that can give you an edge in your 2019 college bowl pick 'em contest or confidence points pool.
This analysis is provided by TeamRankings, a site that has helped thousands of subscribers win prizes in football pools. To get customized pick recommendations for your 2019 college bowl pool, check out their Bowl Pick 'em Picks product.
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2019 College Bowl Picks: Three Underrated Values
With up to 41 games included (including the FCS Celebration Bowl), college bowl pools typically present a number of opportunities for smart players to get an edge. In this article, we’ll discuss three picks that stand out as value plays based on their combination of win odds and pick popularity. They range from underrated favorites to an unpopular underdog that has a solid shot at pulling off an upset.
Deciding whether to choose these teams should be top of mind when you make your 2019 college bowl picks because they represent some of the best opportunities to differentiate your bowl pool entry from your competitors and gain ground on your opponents in the pool standings. Winning a college bowl pool is all about taking calculated risks, and the teams below offer excellent risk-vs-reward profiles.
Keep in mind that the best picks for your specific college football bowl pool depend on multiple strategy factors, such as the number of entries in your pool; whether or not it uses confidence points; and the prize structure. If you want our game-by-game recommendations for your pool, check out our Bowl Pick 'em Picks.
Note: Win odds and projected pick popularity data quoted below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want to see the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day with the latest information.
Value Favorites
When a team is favored to win, yet is being picked by less than half of your opponents, that's as close to a no-brainer pick as you can get.
Las Vegas Bowl: Washington Huskies (vs. Boise State)
Boise State enters the Las Vegas Bowl at 12-1 and is ranked 18th in the latest AP Poll. Washington was one of the preseason Pac-12 favorites (along with Oregon and Utah) but struggled to a 7-5 finish, and head coach Chris Petersen, who used to coach Boise State, is stepping down after this bowl game, citing stress.
Washington, though, is the betting favorite in this one (by 3.5 points at post time) with around 60-percent implied win odds. Our predictive power ratings also see the Huskies as the favorite. Why? Washington faced the much tougher schedule, and much of the record difference between these teams can be explained by their results in close games, which can be heavily influenced by luck (Boise State is 4-1, Washington 0-4 in one-score games).
The public, meanwhile, is treating Boise State as the favorite, picking it an estimated 56 percent of the time. That's not surprising when you have a ranked 12-1 team facing a 7-5 opponent.
So, how have favorites who have inferior win-loss records done in bowl games? There have been nine bowl games over the past five years where a favorite had at least two fewer wins and two more losses than its opponent. Boise State did win one of those games two years ago against favored Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl, but the favorites are 7-2 overall in that stretch. In other words, you should generally trust the oddsmakers when they make a team with a notably inferior win-loss record a favorite.
Pinstripe Bowl: Michigan State (vs. Wake Forest)
Speaking of teams that are favored despite having a worse record, 6-6 Michigan State is favored by 4.5 points over 8-4 Wake Forest in the Pinstripe Bowl.
Our models give Michigan State a 65-percent chance of winning this game, but the public is taking the Spartans about 58 percent of the time. In comparison, in three other bowl games where our projected odds for the favorite are most similar to Michigan State’s, the public is taking the favorite much more often -- 81 percent of the time.
Again, the betting odds are most likely doing a better job here at evaluating the impact of schedule strength and not overvaluing close-game records. The public is giving underdog Wake Forest enough credit to provide some value in picking Michigan State.
Neither of these teams distinguished themselves against tough competition this year. The Spartans went 0-4 against teams ranked in the top 10 of our predictive ratings, while Wake Forest lost to Clemson 52-3 in the only game they played against a top-10 team (or top 30, for that matter).
However, Big Ten teams have won the past three Pinstripe Bowl games played in the Bronx, with Wisconsin crushing Miami last year, and the Big Ten is 5-1 against the spread since starting to come to this bowl game in 2013. The Spartans will not be at a climate disadvantage in this atypical bowl game played in cold northern weather, and they look like a solid value play here.
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Value Gamble
All underdogs are not created equal. If you're going to take a risk on an upset pick, you want to focus on highly underrated teams that have a legitimate shot to win.
Frisco Bowl: Kent State Golden Flashes (vs. Utah State)
Kent State played a tough non-conference schedule and took their beatings early, losing to Arizona State, Auburn, and Wisconsin by an average of 37 points. But the Golden Flashes improved throughout head coach Sean Lewis’ second season, and closed the year with three straight wins to make their first bowl appearance since 2012. In fact, it’s only the third bowl game in school history.
Utah State, meanwhile, got off to a 4-2 start (with the losses to LSU and Wake Forest) but closed out by going 3-3 in the Mountain West. This is the program’s eighth bowl game in the past nine years (including a 52-13 win over North Texas last year in the New Mexico Bowl).
Utah State opened as an eight-point favorite, but the line has moved downward and was at 6.5 points as of Wednesday. Jordan Love, the Utah State quarterback, had a great sophomore year in 2018, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt and throwing 32 TDs and six INTs. But in 2019, those numbers have slumped to only 7.1 yards per attempt and 17 TDs vs. 16 INTs. Love has already announced that he is turning pro after this game, and just a few days before the bowl game, news came out that Love and two other teammates were arrested for marijuana possession, though Love is expected to play.
Judging motivation for a bowl game can be difficult, but there are some concerns here that Kent State could be more focused for this game. Yet the public is giving Kent State little chance, picking it just 13 percent of the time. That’s the sixth-lowest pick percentage for any bowl team, and there are six other bowl games where teams are double-digit underdogs.
Our projections give the Golden Flashes a 36-percent chance of pulling off an upset here. That's a relatively risky proposition, but in large bowl pools that kind of difference between upset likelihood (36 percent) and public pick popularity (13 percent) can justify an educated gamble. In smaller bowl pools, it's probably not worth the risk.
See All Bowl Picks & Value Plays For 2019
The three picks above provide just a few examples of how to use objective predictions and game theory to give yourself an edge in bowl pick 'em contests and confidence point pools. By understanding which favorites are underrated and which underdogs the public is sleeping on, you can craft a differentiated pick sheet that gives you the best chance to win your pool.
We've aggregated all the data, and as of post time our analysis has identified 16 value-driven picks worth considering based on their win odds and pick popularity. You can see them all in the Data Grid feature of our Bowl Pick 'em Picks product (as well as get our customized recommendations on which ones you should pick in your pool).
You can also read more about them in our post on the top value pick opportunities for 2019 bowl pools, or just see our complete list of college bowl confidence point picks ranked 1 to 41.