Wacky things always happen in Week 18, so trying out new, unconventional strategies in NFL DFS tournaments isn't a bad idea. Our DraftKings lineup mostly targets players on teams who are still playing for a playoff berth or seeding, but we're mixing in a few values on non-contending teams in an attempt to capture some of that inevitable weirdness.
Before we break down all of our picks and strategy, here are the most notable scoring rules for DraftKings contests: Full-point PPR, four-point passing TDs, three-point bonuses for 100 rushing yards, 100 receiving yards, and 300 passing yards.
WEEK 18 DFS LINEUPS: FanDuel
DraftKings Picks Week 18: NFL DFS lineup for GPP tournaments
Sunday main slate, $50,000 budget
QB Geno Smith, Seahawks vs. Rams ($6,000). Smith has come back to Earth after his hot start to the season, but that doesn't mean he can't produce in a must-win game. He threw for a pair of TDs last week, marking his 12th multi-score game of the season. The Rams are still playing hard, but they just got tagged for two TDs by Justin Herbert. More notable is that Smith had 367 yards and three TDs against L.A. back in Week 13. The ceiling is there, and in a week where it's tough to navigate the QB landscape because of rest and injuries, Smith stands out as a great value.
RB Najee Harris, Steelers vs. Browns ($6,100). We originally had Austin Ekeler here, but with news that the Chargers could sit their starters if Cincinnati beats Baltimore, we pivoted to the safer Harris. Cleveland allows the sixth-most fantasy points to RBs, and Harris has been on a real roll lately, racking up at least 13 DK points in four straight games, including 23.3 last week.
RB Dalvin Cook, Vikings @ Bears ($7,300). Chicago allows the second-most DraftKings to RBs, which is all we really need to say to justify this pick. Yes, Cook has struggled lately, but over his past four games, he's still averaged 16.3 touches. With that kind of workload, he's a lock to produce this weekend.
WR DK Metcalf, Seahawks vs. Rams ($6,700). Metcalf went off when these teams met in Week 13, catching all eight of his targets for 127 yards and a score. Despite his one-catch, three-yard effort last week, we're banking on another big showing. In the three games before Week 17, Metcalf averaged 6.3 catches, 9.3 targets, and 69 yards. That's the floor this week, and his ceiling is obviously much higher.
WR Jahan Dotson, Commanders vs. Cowboys ($4,500). Dotson is our biggest contrarian pick, as the Cowboys have everything to play for and the Commanders are going nowhere fast with an unsettled QB situation. Ultimately, though, this isn't a bad matchup, and Dotson is getting steady targets. Over the past four games, he's posted 18 catches, 31 targets, 272 yards, and three TDs. Moreover, he produced well with Carson Wentz under center earlier in the season, so it's not as if his late-season success was all because of Taylor Heinicke. Dallas allows the sixth-most DK points to WRs, making Dotson a relative steal given his price. (UPDATE: With Sam Howell starting, Dotson becomes even riskier, but the matchup is still strong and he's still a value at his price, so we'll stick with him and hope for some lineup differentiation.)
WEEK 18 FANTASY RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
WR Rashid Shaheed, Saints vs. Panthers ($4,200). Shaheed had a career-high six catches for 79 yards last week, and given his rising targets and 18.2 yards-per-catch average, he's a real threat to top 100 yards soon. Carolina allows the third-most DK points to WRs, and with even less to play for now than last week when Tampa torched it for over 400 passing yards, things could get ugly in the Big Easy. We'll gladly take a chance on Shaheed at his bargain price.
TE Noah Fant, Seahawks vs. Rams ($3,500). The Rams continue to hemorrhage touchdowns to tight ends, surrendering at least one TE score in seven of their past 10 games. One of those scores was by Fant, who caught four-of-five targets for 42 yards and a TD in Week 13. He hasn't produced many yards this season, but Fant has scored in three of his past five outings and averaged four targets over his past three. Other TEs have higher ceilings, but for his price, Fant is the best value on the board.
FLEX Cam Akers, Rams @ Seahawks ($6,200). Over his past five games, Akers has averaged 18.2 touches and 96.6 total yards while scoring six total TDs. Getting him at RB14 pricing against the league's third-worst run defense isn't even fair. He'll be chalky, but he's still worth the investment.
DEF Atlanta Falcons vs. Buccaneers ($2,400). Regardless of what Todd Bowles says, we're banking on the Bucs sitting their starters for most of this game. That doesn't mean Atlanta's mediocre defense is a sure thing to produce, but we'll take our chances against Blaine Gabbert and company, especially at this price. Using the Bucs allows us to afford our high-priced RBs, so we think it's a fair trade-off.
