Two rebuilding teams will look to show a national television audience that they are on the right track as the Jaguars (1-1) host the Dolphins (0-2) in an intrastate battle on Thursday Night Football in Week 3. The Jaguars have been installed as a three-point favorite with an over/under that is sitting at 47.5 points. Jacksonville is also a -191 favorite on the moneyline.
The BetQL NFL Best Bet Model lists a four-star wager on the total and a three-star wager on the moneyline in this game. Keep reading to find out what one of them is.
WEEK 3 PICKS ADIVCE: Pick 'em pools | Survivor pools
All data presented is as of Thursday afternoon. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.
WEEK 3 STANDARD FANTASY RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Dolphins Outlook
Through two weeks it has been tough sledding for the Dolphins. Miami sits at 0-2 and is ranked 31st in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Their defense has been the main issue, as the unit ranks dead last in DVOA and gives up an ugly 7.2 yards per play, which is also dead last in the NFL.
The strength of the Miami defense was supposed to be cornerback duo Byron Jones and Xavien Howard, but Jones will be out due to a groin injury. There really is not much pass rush to speak of for the Dolphins, as they have just three sacks and seven quarterback hits through two games.
Offensively, Miami has a few dangerous weapons in the passing game for Ryan Fitzpatrick to target in DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki. Gesicki starred with eight catches for 130 yards and a touchdown for Miami in last week’s 31-28 loss to the Bills. As he seems to do often, Fitzpatrick delivered a backdoor cover for gamblers who backed the Dolphins.
This was the good version of Fitzpatrick with 328 yards and two touchdowns against a tough Bills defense. The bad version was the one who threw three interceptions against New England to open the season. Sometimes you can even get both versions within the same game. Fitzpatrick does not have much of a run game to lean on at this point with the three-back rotation of Jordan Howard, Matt Breida and Myles Gaskin not getting the job done.
MORE TNF: FD single-game lineup | DK Showdown lineup | Start or sit? | Chark injury update
Jaguars Outlook
Through two games, the Jaguars have certainly put to rest any notion that they were tanking the season. They were one drive away from possibly having a miraculous 2-0 start, but a pass from Gardner Minshew was batted in the air and intercepted by Harold Landry to seal the game for the Titans, 33-30.
The Jaguars were probably the better team in this one, as they outgained Tennessee 480-354 in yardage. However, two turnovers were the difference in the game along with eight penalties by Jacksonville. This was the opposite of Jacksonville’s opening game in which it outgained 445-241 by the Colts yet won the game. Overall, it comes out to a solid 12th in DVOA.
Minshew is an underrated quarterback and currently has a stellar 75-percent completion percentage to go along with 7.9 yards per attempt. Jacksonville has not missed Leonard Fournette at all with James Robinson averaging 5.1 yards per carry. DJ Chark is a big-play threat, and Laviska Shenault Jr. has been a jack-of-all-trades weapon. (Update: Chark has been ruled out because of a chest injury.)
Defensively, the Jaguars do have some young talent to be excited about. The run defense was excellent against Tennessee, holding Derrick Henry to 84 yards and no touchdowns on 25 carries.
Rookie cornerback C.J. Henderson has been terrific to start his career with four passes defended and an interception. Josh Allen had a strong rookie year rushing the passer last year, while Myles Jack and Joe Schobert are an active tackling duo at linebacker.
A trend favoring Jacksonville is Doug Marrone has a record of 7-0 against the spread for the Jaguars following a loss of three points or fewer. Find out if public bettors think the Jags are the best bet vs. the spread!
WEEK 3 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Prediction
BetQL’s NFL model suggests going UNDER the total of 47.5 as a four-star recommendation in this matchup. The algorithm comes up with that the number should be 44.5 points, which is a three-point edge on the under. Sharp bettors are hammering one side of the total -- find out if over or under the total is getting backed by over 85 percent of the money!
Check out BetQL’s NFL Best Bets Dashboard to find out who the algorithm likes for the spread and the moneyline. The moneyline is a strong three-star play. You can find all updated lines, odds, spreads, and NFL picks at BetQL!