The divisional round is jam-packed with four high-profile matchups, setting NFL DFS players up for an entertaining weekend on the gridiron. For those in need of advice and picks for the weekend slate, our DraftKings lineup features several big-named stars along with a handful of value sleepers, giving us a chance to take home some cash on Sunday night.
We crafted our classic lineup around a three-player Bills' stack and a few sub-$5K pass catchers who should post better-than-expected fantasy showings.
Before we break down all of our picks, here are the most notable scoring rules for DraftKings contests: Full-point PPR, four-point passing TDs, three-point bonuses for 100 rushing yards, 100 receiving yards, and 300 passing yards.
Divisional Round DraftKings Picks: NFL DFS lineup for playoff GPP tournaments
Saturday-Sunday main slate, $50,000 budget
QB Josh Allen, Bills vs. Bengals ($7,800)
Even with Allen committing three turnovers in the wild-card round, he still finished with 28.1 DK points. Another solid fantasy showing seems likely this week. We know the Bills are going to pass at a high rate, as Allen's averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game, and for a QB leading the league in air yards (5,218), he's going to take his fair share of deep shots. Cincinnati's defense underwhelmed last week, allowing Tyler Huntley to throw for 226 yards and two TDs, and with a major step up in class, we're not so sure how well they're going to defend the pass this week.
CHIEFS-JAGUARS:
Betting preview | Best props | DK lineup | FD lineup
RB Christian McCaffrey, 49ers vs. Cowboys ($8,000)
We're not fazed by the tough matchup, as McCaffrey always has 20-point upside in San Francisco's high-powered offense. He's currently riding a seven-game TD streak and is likely to increase it to eight with another 15-20 touch showing this week. Elijah Mitchell's return certainly limits CMC's ceiling, but we still think he'll end the weekend leading all RBs in fantasy points. He still leads all RBs in target share (21.8 percent) and is the most efficient RB in terms of expected points added (+33.0 EPA).
GIANTS-EAGLES:
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RB Miles Sanders, Eagles vs. Giants ($5,700)
Sanders' salary has hit a low point, as he hasn't been priced below $5,800 since Week 3. He earns enough usage to warrant a roster spot, entering the divisional round averaging 15.2 carries and 1.5 targets per game. A 15-plus touch game gives him a shot to eclipse double-digit DK points, something he hasn't done in his past four games. Sanders' third-best showing of the season came in Philadelphia's Week 14 drubbing over New York, as the Penn State product rushed for 144 yards and two TDs on 17 carries. He has a realistic shot to reach 100 rushing yards in a plus matchup against a Giants defense allowing the third-highest rush EPA this season (0.043).
BENGALS-BILLS:
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WR Stefon Diggs, Bills vs. Bengals ($7,700)
Diggs got off to a hot start to the postseason last week, hauling in seven of nine targets for 114 yards (21.4 DK points). He was held without a catch in the second half, but we're not too worried about that carrying over against a Bengals pass defense that just let Tyler Huntley and Baltimore post an 0.27 EPA/pass on early downs (73rd percentile). Diggs averages 9.1 targets per game on a 28.4-percent target share (10th among WRs), and another near-double-digit target performance is feasible.
WR Gabriel Davis, Bills vs. Bengals ($4,800)
We normally wouldn't roster both Diggs and Davis, but Davis' salary has hit its low point this season, so we're firing him up after his best performance since Week 5. Davis scored 26.3 DK points in the wild-card round (six receptions, 113 yards, one TD), and with an aDOT of 15.2 yards (sixth among WRs), he's always capable of popping off for monster games as he did in last season's divisional round against Kansas City (eight receptions, 201 yards, four TDs). Davis also ranks third among WRs in yards per reception (17.4 yards), and as long as Allen's slinging it, Davis is capable of being the beneficiary of a long reception.
WR Michael Gallup, Cowboys @ 49ers ($3,800)
Gallup has value at just $3,800 now that he's starting to settle back into Dallas' offense. He's fresh off a five-catch, 46-yard, one-TD effort in Dallas' drubbing over Tampa Bay and has a shot to replicate that this week. Dallas might be forced into throwing at a high clip if San Francisco can put some early pressure on them, which would likely result in a higher target share for Gallup. He logged the second-highest snap percentage among Cowboys' WRs behind only CeeDee Lamb last week, playing 67 percent of snaps. While Lamb could feast in the slot against Jimmie Ward, he's going to be a focal point of the 49ers' defensive strategy, potentially resulting in a higher-usage day for Gallup outside.
TE Evan Engram, Jaguars @ Chiefs ($4,300)
Engram's been underpriced all season, and we'll gladly include him in our build at only $4,300 in a plus matchup. With Kansas City's offense expected to score their fair share, it will likely result in the Jaguars throwing at a high rate. Engram, who sees 5.8 targets per game, should garner a respectable target share, giving him a chance to score 10-plus DK points.
FLEX Zay Jones, Jaguars @ Chiefs ($4,700)
We're banking on a high-scoring matchup between the Jaguars and Chiefs where both receiving corps have a successful day. Jones snapped his mini-cold spell with a 21.4-point effort in last week's come-from-behind win, securing eight catches for 74 yards and a TD on 13 targets. Similar to Engram, Jones has a shot to see garner a respectable target share in a negative game script. A double-digit target day, against a Chiefs defense that ranks 26th against WRs more than justifies rostering Jones at $4,700.
DEF Eagles vs. Giants ($3,200)
While the Giants' offense was virtually unstoppable last week against the Vikings, replicating that effort against the Eagles is a tall task. Philadelphia ended the regular season sporting the lowest drop-back EPA (-0.087), and its secondary figures to hold its own against the Giants' receiving corps. The Eagles' defense also ranks second in pressure rate (25.5 percent), as their ability to win at the point of attack could lead to a handful of sacks and errant throws. We expect Jonathan Gannon's defense to show out on Saturday night.
