When the Colts (6-4) take the field against the Texans (6-4) at NRG Stadium on Thursday night, a lot will be on the line -- and not just the betting line. Since both teams are tied atop the AFC South standings at the moment, the outcome could have serious playoff implications, especially for the home team. Falling to 6-5 would spell trouble for the Texans, who will play host to the Super Bowl favorite Patriots next week. As indicated by the 3.5-point spread and 45.5 point over/under, the Colts-Texans TNF matchup is expected to be a close-fought, moderately low-scoring battle between two very similar teams.
As seen every week in the NFL, anything can happen, but 7-4 feels a whole lot different than 6-5. On the season, the Colts are plus-21 in point differential while the Texans are plus-13. Let’s try to find an edge.
WEEK 12 DFS LINEUPS:
FD cash | FD GPP | DK cash | DK GPP | Y! cash | Y! GPP
You can find all updated NFL point spreads, odds and lines at BetQL!
Colts outlook
Indianapolis is coming off of an impressive 33-13 victory over the Jaguars last week and celebrated the return of quarterback Jacoby Brissett (knee), who was injured during Indy’s Week 10 loss to the Steelers and sat out during their embarrassing home defeat to the Dolphins. While he didn’t exactly light it up, the Colts’ running game did, as multiple contributors turned 36 carries into a whopping 264 yards and three touchdowns.
However, the team’s leading rusher, Marlon Mack, suffered a broken hand and will be out for at least this week (and likely longer). That opened the door for Jonathan Williams, who logged 13 carries for 116 yards. Expect Williams to see most early-down work tonight, though Jordan Wilkins, who has missed the past two games because of an ankle injury, will also be involved. Nyheim Hines’ snap count should also increase, especially on passing downs. It remains to be seen how Indianapolis’ offense operates without Mack, who has been relied on to shoulder the load throughout 2019. Game script will likely determine which backup sees more time on the field.
MORE WEEK 12 DFS: Values | RotoQL Lineup Builder
The Texans have allowed 102 rushing yards per game (13th) and 272.4 passing yards per game (29th) this season, so a pass-heavy game plan could be in store for the Colts. It’s worth mentioning that both T.Y. Hilton (calf) and Eric Ebron (ankle) fully practiced on Wednesday but are listed as questionable for this contest. If they both suit up, Brissett will likely have plenty of time to find open receivers in the pocket, as Indy’s elite offensive line has allowed just 15 sacks all season and Texans’ Pro Bowl pass rusher J.J. Watt (pectoral) is done for the season.
MORE WEEK 12 TNF: DraftKings Showdown lineup | Start or sit?
Texans outlook
Over the past two weeks, the Colts defense has allowed 47 and 31 yards, respectively, to running backs. That doesn’t create much of a positive outlook for Texans running back Carlos Hyde, who is enjoying a resurgent season (4.9 yards per carry, 769 rushing yards). He has been explosive over the past couple of weeks, averaging 8.4 yards on 19 carries against the Jags and then 7.2 yards on nine carries in a loss to the Ravens. If Houston can establish the run with Hyde, Deshaun Watson will become very dangerous.
Even though the Colts have allowed just 228.8 passing yards per game (11th), there’s a chance that he will have his full stable of weapons back on the field for this game if Will Fuller (hamstring) is able to suit up. After getting embarrassed by the Ravens last week, expect Watson to lean on DeAndre Hopkins, Kenny Stills, Keke Coutee, Darren Fells, Duke Johnson, and Fuller (if he plays). Don’t be shocked if Watson and company rebound from last week and light up the scoreboard in front of their home fans.
WEEK 12 NON-PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Prediction
BetQL’s NFL Model lists Houston’s -195 moneyline as the best bet in this matchup. Find out which team the algorithm supports against the spread and whether the over or under is the best bet!
Per BetQL’s NFL consensus picks dashboard, 58 percent of total bets and 58 percent of the money has been wagered on the Texans -3.5, while 54 percent of total bets have been wagered on the OVER. Find out what shocking percentage of the total money has gone on the OVER on BetQL’s NFL ATS Picks dashboard!